2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 13.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Bitfinex has exceeded its 25-APR high of 9767, whilst the other exchanges have yet to do so.
In addition, appears to be Price/RSI negative divergence on the 4-hr, possible double top?

Following price targets (Bitfinex) in play if all the exchanges collectively take out their 25-APR highs:

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 25, 2018, 11:41:30 AM

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

BTCUSD (COINBASE)
OPEN: 9650
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9765
RISK: 1.10%
REWARD: 55%

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on May 01, 2018, 04:38:11 PM

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Rule of Alternation: Waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms. For example, a simple sharp move in wave 2 suggests a complex mild move in wave 4; and vice-versa. Simple moves generally resolve quicker than complex moves.

Five wave impulsive moves on long-term Primary and Cycle degrees don't often trend channel, especially not on parabolic curves!

muf18

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on May 01, 2018, 04:38:11 PM

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Quote from: morgan4140 on May 01, 2018, 03:15:41 AM

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

if anything, as a bull, you want to see more overenthusiastic bears and permabears. the more bearish the sentiment, the more shorts there are to squeeze. Tongue

Yeah we are seeing this permabear sentiment, by people sentiment "mooning" out in space.
So everybody is so bear... Cheesy

figmentofmyass

legendary

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xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Quote from: morgan4140 on May 01, 2018, 03:15:41 AM

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

if anything, as a bull, you want to see more overenthusiastic bears and permabears. the more bearish the sentiment, the more shorts there are to squeeze. Tongue

Gadhoh

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these are all related to the FUD, When the investors are driven by such a mentality, they buy cattle and sell them in a herd. When they buy, they cause a price bubble. When they sell, they trigger an accident

muf18

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Quote from: morgan4140 on May 01, 2018, 03:15:41 AM

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

Yeah, better avoid, "such crazy people" because you'd be better to
"look back, when train is going towards you faster and faster" Cheesy

.

Go HODLin strong, cause you have strong hands.

morgan4140

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Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Activity: 571

Merit: 284

CookieFactory

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Quote from: d5000 on April 29, 2018, 03:40:22 PM

But on a more general level I agree with OP's analysis - and it's unlikely that the bull market already has resumed. We currently continue to follow the 2014 pattern closely and so for me it's likely that after this intermediate rally, which may be a "b" or "x" wave, we return to a last bearish phase which could take us to $3000 or so.

Near term movements aside:

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: muf18 on April 29, 2018, 07:30:56 AM

For now everything seems to be going still ok, but you were quite close to your SL.
I'm very berish on whole crypto market, and imo what we are seeing is a big pump of big hedge funds, to just wipe out every asset they have on the market to absorb it (maybe apart from EOS), because volume is very volatile, when they are withdrawing from market volume just dies, and it's going downhill. There was so many intervations till now... But they have also restricted amount of money, so if public won't buy from them this crap, they will just market sell, or will try some OTC deals.

Yes, quite the manipulated pump in EOS, impressive nonetheless!
RSI hasn't peaked above previous highs, yet price has; which may indicate a negative divergence.
The second leg of the rally has now equaled the first.
Possible top? Tricky to say. A short with a stop at 23.5 looks interesting...

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: CookieFactory on April 28, 2018, 08:54:38 PM

So...the elephant in the thread is your primary EW count could be wrong.

Instead of the Dec 2017 peak being the end of Wave 5, it was actually the end of Wave 3. Since Wave 2 was sharp, the correction down to 6K could very well be interpreted as a long, drawn-out Wave 4 instead of your A-B-C bear market.

You are right that there are few candidates for a valid "Wave 3". I would have used the peak in September (~$5000) which has a bit more prominence than the "Peak 3" mentioned in the OP; but it is almost as prominent as the $3000 peak in May 2017.

I have also problems with the decision of the OP to include the 2013 bubble into this Elliott wave chart. For me, the 2013 peak was a wave 5 peak of the previous cycle, while the current cycle begun in late 2014 (what the OP describes as the bottom of wave 2).

But on a more general level I agree with OP's analysis - and it's unlikely that the bull market already has resumed. We currently continue to follow the 2014 pattern closely and so for me it's likely that after this intermediate rally, which may be a "b" or "x" wave, we return to a last bearish phase which could take us to $3000 or so.

muf18

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 27, 2018, 01:43:20 PM

Quote from: muf18 on April 27, 2018, 05:42:32 AM

Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

Sticking to the plan. If however, 9767 (Bitfinex) is taken out, then following upside targets in play:

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 25, 2018, 11:41:30 AM

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

For now everything seems to be going still ok, but you were quite close to your SL.
I'm very berish on whole crypto market, and imo what we are seeing is a big pump of big hedge funds, to just wipe out every asset they have on the market to absorb it (maybe apart from EOS), because volume is very volatile, when they are withdrawing from market volume just dies, and it's going downhill. There was so many intervations till now... But they have also restricted amount of money, so if public won't buy from them this crap, they will just market sell, or will try some OTC deals.

CookieFactory

member

Activity: 119

Merit: 19

So...the elephant in the thread is your primary EW count could be wrong.

Instead of the Dec 2017 peak being the end of Wave 5, it was actually the end of Wave 3. Since Wave 2 was sharp, the correction down to 6K could very well be interpreted as a long, drawn-out Wave 4 instead of your A-B-C bear market.

Your current primary count requires BTC to ultimately drop to 3-4K as only that would invalidate the Wave 4 proposal (i.e. Wave 4 overlaps with Wave 1). Otherwise, there are many signs the Wave 4 interpretation is correct, and thus we are now in the beginning stages of Wave 5.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: muf18 on April 27, 2018, 05:42:32 AM

Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

Sticking to the plan. If however, 9767 (Bitfinex) is taken out, then following upside targets in play:

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 25, 2018, 11:41:30 AM

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

penig

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Activity: 266

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Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 05:02:17 AM

Quote from: muf18 on April 26, 2018, 04:17:02 AM

Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 04:04:38 AM

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

Do you have any serious metrics on adoption, cashflows, etc?

muf18

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Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

bonker

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 502

Quote from: muf18 on April 26, 2018, 05:24:39 AM

"What it's got to cryptocurrencies the derivative form of speculative assets based on blockchain ?"

Can I use this quote? I would like to impress women at the disco

muf18

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Activity: 882

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Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 05:02:17 AM

Quote from: muf18 on April 26, 2018, 04:17:02 AM

Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 04:04:38 AM

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

What it's got to cryptocurrencies the derivative form of speculative assets based on blockchain ?

Speculative assets aren't what drive or not drive adoption. They can get attention, because of spikes in value, but it's not what drives it. Blockchain is a distrubuted database something known for a whole lot more time then you can think, just it's now a nice buzzword.
And it has very limited uses, because of decentralization and thus being slow, unless you centralize it and then you have normal database with buzz "blockchain", like with EOS, ripple or NEO.

Yeah, go on, we need more swears, until you got banned.

bonker

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Activity: 784

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Quote from: muf18 on April 26, 2018, 04:17:02 AM

Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 04:04:38 AM

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

muf18

sr. member

Activity: 882

Merit: 310

Quote from: bonker on April 26, 2018, 04:04:38 AM

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 13. (Read 26030 times)