Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 9. (Read 25972 times)

I'm not a moon boy. I actually expect 2.5-3K, and maybe 1-2K too (that will be quite dangerous for the whole field though, and is highly undesirable).

I don't trade Bitcoin now, too dangerous, and I don't want to participate in downtrend too. May buy when is falls a bit lower.

I an not against his graphs. People draw them a lot, sometimes they are right, sometimes not. He got right more often than he got wrong up to now. Maybe 60%/40%... Of course if one predicts bear market during a bear market, his graphs will be at least 60% right, so no wonder he is correct often. I just get nervous from the doom scenarios he throws at us in his "prophetic" comments. I feel they are specially aimed to seeding panic.


Right? Well, if you throw 5 different target numbers, and one of them is correct with $50 allowance, can this be called "getting the wave E right"?
And if we just think in terms of "trend" not numbers, then no need to draw graphs at all - the trend is pretty clear.


So ghost projections mean practically nothing and are mostly decorative. Good to know, as I had an impression they are supposed to indicate expected turn points and targets.

Elliott Wave speculative models are indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

An overshoot target of $8557 (BITFINEX) was provided as an indication of the top —this came within $50. Exact science, is not exact science; this is occasionally an art form!

There are many probable routes to $4000, and eventually to $1000. The aim is to identify the tops and lows as accurate as possible, and identify the overall trend. The ghost projections are indicative of trend, and not to be taken literally to identify each and every twist and turn en route!

Personally, have no desire in either direction, just simply looking to be on the correct side of the market, and to trade it.

+1

I can't believe they are criticizing just after he got the wave E right lol

and yeah you guys have to start to think in term of "trend" not in term of numbers or target, the whole trend is right for now

Well moon boys, where is your charts then?

At least he is posting it, unlike critics like you, which are always funny, cause you dont even know how to trade.

And yes Bitcoin tend to overshoot targets, but it's going with overall downtrend quite nicely.

His old charts are always wrong. When I asked him why he said things changed. LOL. I guess I should tell him that then is no point of drawing them at all.

he got his wave e right, numbers arent 100% precise but you guys also read what you want to read lol you kinda have the same bias you criticise him for

Graphs created to represent what he wants to happen most likely.

The reality is most of these people drawing squiggly lines on graphs predicting the future don’t know what they’re on about. Bitcoin doesn’t conform to regular stocks/shares etc so what is all this rubbish based on?

Guesswork is the answer.

Never, ever trade on info in threads like this.

So after your previous prediction graph completely fails to conforms to reality, you post the next one, now adjusted for the past events. Well, way to go... I see only the main point - the predicted and so long-awaited crash and final capitulation of crypto market (so desired by you), remains constant on all those graphs.

thank you for this very interesting work,

Going to 6K very fast.  And for this time it will now stop at 5800 and go straithg to 5K and futher down.

deserve a bump

Does technical analysis really works or they are just designs from chart experts?

LOL all you wrote could actually happen, but here you made huge mistake. After 5 bitcoin cycles they will suddenly end? LOL

Max Kaiser predicted $100k Bitcoin back in 2011. HE will see it in 2020-2021. That is a sure thing.  If as you speculate $1000 Bitcoins to $100000 Bitcoins are not a parabolic price rise then I dont know what you were taught at math.

what about bankers' futures and ETFs progressively arriving, increasing their role to destroy the market spontaneity?

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Redux
https://redd.it/913xx6

Since the all-time high set on 17-DEC-2017, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin bear market has now elapsed 7 months with a peak decline of 70% in value thus far.

The first leg of the crash from 17-DEC-2017 to 06-FEB-2018, saw a 70% decline where price collapsed from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX).

Since the 06-FEB-2018 low, price has wandered sideways on diminishing volume and volatility, contracting into a triangle pattern. A triangle formation reflects a balance of forces creating a directionless resolve: an equilibrium and indecisive psychological state of mind between the bulls & bears, a period of consolidation as the market deliberates its next move.

Five waves are expected in a contracting triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves. Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio, and it appears wave-c and wave-e are the alternating candidates:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological $10,000 level.

—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 24-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equalled a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-b.

—wave-e: The final leg of the triangle pattern, and the shortest, has been underway since 24-JUN. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around $7,958 (BITFINEX) —and converging trendlines of the triangle suggest by mid to late JUL. It is common for this final wave-e of a triangle to either undershoot or overshoot the converging trendlines of the triangle. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of $9,990 (BITFINEX). Summary of targets to complete the triangle (BITFINEX):
Textbook:
    @7873: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 50% of wave-d
    @7958: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c    
Overshoot:
    @8372: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d
    @8557: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-c
    @9084: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-d

Once the triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility —the crash redux. Taking out $7,330 may commence the second leg of the bear market, at which point signals time to exit all cryptocurrencies.

The Elliott Wave principle pinpoints the start of the ‘mania’ phase at $5,400 (BITFINEX) on 12-NOV-2017. At this level in time, price withdrew to create wave-4 as part of a 1-2-3-4-5 series of advancing waves:



From $5,400 to $19,891 manifests the steep parabolic price curve of the fifth and final wave. Therefore, taking out $5400 begins ‘capitulation’ of the earliest of public speculators and loyal hodlrs —amidst a volatile and instable marketplace surged in volume driven by margin calls, where mass media hysterics begin to peak reaffirming the ‘fear’ phase. Hence the psychological $6,000 has been guarded for the last +5 months since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap.



Initial expectation for the second leg bear market is towards $4,257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market which begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs; where reality of the bubble bursting only just is grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events termed as “FUD” may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:

• Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
• Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions; including hacking and exploitation of security flaws.
• Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
• Majority of Altcoins currently around US$2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct. Manipulated alt/BTC pairs at highest risk of collapse; see deadcoins.com
• Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies, reduction of trading fees and margins/spreads, and launch of basket financial instruments (e.g. ETFs, index funds, etc), in the endeavour to revive and survive the market.
• Individual bankruptcies and suicides.

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

—thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
—en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

It is musing to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.

Commodities and currencies, and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in A-B-C Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

The wave characteristics of Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

Given the nature of wave characteristics, this suggests the behaviour of cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a currency nor a commodity; and so therefore in their current state, shall never be adopted as robust mediums of exchange for goods and services or as a storage medium of value.

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-time highs is foolish hodlr's fodder.

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows:




 

I am saying that. This is the best chance of your lifetime. Next half year to a year. Right now everyone that is so so poor should get a triple job and  live only from bread and water and buy as much bitcoin and other good crypto as he can afford. Now is the time we should not miss and plenty of months to make it happen.

On the contrary, it is an emotional trade - a trade to prove cryptocurrency holders wrong. During the bull run, even the most staunch skeptics like Jamie Dimon said they wouldn't short Bitcoin. Shorting bitcoin is not a trade that a rational investor would do - it is way too risky.

Yes, somewhat, I admit. I am not a professional trader, and for me BTC is not just another three-letter combination to make money on...


Well, yes, being short rules out confidence, belief and trust, but it creates 'emotional attachment with the negative sign' - including skepticism, disbelief and trust in the asset's failure
Basically you don't emotionally attach to Bitcoin, but you attach to things which it threatens to destroy change.

Being short on Bitcoin implies no ownership; and hence by extension, rules out any emotional attachment including confidence, belief and trust —it is perhaps the most objective trade!