2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 36.

cellard

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Quote from: d5000 on January 10, 2018, 10:31:30 PM

Quote from: cellard on January 09, 2018, 10:24:32 AM

People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.[...]

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

It's equally wrong to assume that Bitcoin will grow infinitely. Viewed from the "right angle", and with the "right zoom level", every asset that grows for a period in time (months, years or even decades) can be assumed to be a "infinitely growing asset". Nobody know when a bullish cycle is going to end, but it will end eventually.

So for me, this kind of threads is equally legit than people predicting prices of millions per BTC. Which is, in my opinion, a very very unlikely scenario. If everything is going well and Lightning is working as expected and it gets really a mass phenomenon, I don't see the maximum stable price much above $100K - with temporary "overheatings" or "bubbles" up to 300-400K being still possible, but unlikely.

The most likely scenario for me is still a Bitcoin with a "stable end price" of $20K-50K.

Nobody is saying bitcoin will grow infinitely, that's nonsense, but it's equally nonsense claiming that "this is the peak of the bubble" because:

1) Bubbles are impossible to predict in it's nature, therefore you will miss the peak
2) Bitcoin has a LOT more upwards momentum than downards. There's simply *too much money out there*. The trillions sitting in nonsensical options are all going to end up in Bitcoin because they will realize there aren't many other places left. Everything else is too congested already, all the upwards momentum lies within Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins are a joke and unsafe to host trillions worth of capital.

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: jjacob on January 11, 2018, 01:59:39 AM

Everybody uses Elliott Waves to predict, but nobody seems to get it right. Even Goldman used this logic to predict that Bitcoin was heading into its fifth and final Elliott Wave when it crossed $8000.

I am not a strong "believer" in Elliot's wave theory (many trading bots are, however Wink

).

But in this case, they were right if you assume that ~$20000 was the top, and that's also what the OP posted in his chart pics. Wave 5 is often characterized by extreme hype, greed and "parabolic" behaviour, so the run from 8000 to 20000 wasn't that surprising.

In 2013, the final run from $350 to $1000 ("Wave 5") lasted also about 2 weeks and more than duplicated the price. In fact, I see a lot of coincidences in this year's price evolution and 2013-14. We are now at the point where Bitcoin in 2014 was when its price "tumbled" between $600 (50% of ATH) and $900 (80% of the ATH).

jjacob

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★Nitrogensports.eu★

Everybody uses Elliott Waves to predict, but nobody seems to get it right. Even Goldman used this logic to predict that Bitcoin was heading into its fifth and final Elliott Wave when it crossed $8000. We all know what happened after that.
So I am going to ignore this bit of analysis as well.

ThinkerTinkerMaker

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 08, 2018, 05:38:42 PM

Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7p2bwq/2018_cryptocurrency_crash_elliott_wave/

Then just sell and just get out of the game. I understand those who are on the bearish and want to start a discussion about speculative drops/pops and possibilities but something tells me that's not your purpose.

d5000

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Quote from: cellard on January 09, 2018, 10:24:32 AM

People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.[...]

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

It's equally wrong to assume that Bitcoin will grow infinitely. Viewed from the "right angle", and with the "right zoom level", every asset that grows for a period in time (months, years or even decades) can be assumed to be a "infinitely growing asset". Nobody know when a bullish cycle is going to end, but it will end eventually.

So for me, this kind of threads is equally legit than people predicting prices of millions per BTC. Which is, in my opinion, a very very unlikely scenario. If everything is going well and Lightning is working as expected and it gets really a mass phenomenon, I don't see the maximum stable price much above $100K - with temporary "overheatings" or "bubbles" up to 300-400K being still possible, but unlikely.

The most likely scenario for me is still a Bitcoin with a "stable end price" of $20K-50K.

leopard2

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sell, SELL!!! This time Bitcoin is dead for sure, Buffett is saying the same thing and Jamie Dimon, this is the end!!! Cool

CryptoCoinNews

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what do you reason if bitcoin price can down until reach 7k - 8k dollar
i think if down price still above 10k dollar

cindygirl

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Quote from: cellard on January 10, 2018, 11:15:51 AM

Quote from: Qoheleth on January 09, 2018, 06:47:13 PM

You do realize that the market cap is just the price times the number of coins in existence, right? Of course the market cap will be lower when the price was lower.

It's one of the main reasons why all these shitcoins are a total joke. For example, Ripple, and all these premined scamcoins, create an huge supply of coins, and if someone buys just $1 USD worth, the huge premined supply will now become the marketcap at a vlue of $1 USD each.

So a shitcoin generates 100,000,000,000 tokens, someone buys $1, and now the marketcap is $100,000,000,000, it's a total joke. Coinmarketcap is so misleading to newbies that think Bitcoin has real competition. All of these shitcoins have manipulated supplies with very dodgy history behind like developers burning coins in purpose, generating them, airdropping them... it's nuts.

If it's part of the circulating supply then how is that a joke? The only scenario I could see is if circulating supply is actually reported at about say 1m but founders tokens are circulating (for example) but there's no way they'll be sold. But this is the same for bitcoin and satoshi's holdings.

cellard

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Quote from: Qoheleth on January 09, 2018, 06:47:13 PM

You do realize that the market cap is just the price times the number of coins in existence, right? Of course the market cap will be lower when the price was lower.

It's one of the main reasons why all these shitcoins are a total joke. For example, Ripple, and all these premined scamcoins, create an huge supply of coins, and if someone buys just $1 USD worth, the huge premined supply will now become the marketcap at a vlue of $1 USD each.

So a shitcoin generates 100,000,000,000 tokens, someone buys $1, and now the marketcap is $100,000,000,000, it's a total joke. Coinmarketcap is so misleading to newbies that think Bitcoin has real competition. All of these shitcoins have manipulated supplies with very dodgy history behind like developers burning coins in purpose, generating them, airdropping them... it's nuts.

IL.Guerreiro

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There is always a fake news like this. I believe what will never survive is this news but cryptos will always be.

fabiorem

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How can this memeliott wave be applied to bitcoin, with all the technology behind it?

Bitcoin is not just a stock, its not Pajama Papers. Its a technological innovation which, if sucessful, can dethrone Visa-Mastercard oligopoly on payments.

Qoheleth

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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Quote from: Slow death on January 09, 2018, 08:51:52 AM

when the price was $2000 [...] even the marketcap was very low

You do realize that the market cap is just the price times the number of coins in existence, right? Of course the market cap will be lower when the price was lower.

Quote from: Alns on January 09, 2018, 04:11:59 PM

Wow, are there still people who believe in that bitcoin will crash at some point?

I mean, it's happened before.

After the 2011 bubble (peak ~$30/BTC), we spent quite a few months in the single digits.
After the 2013 bubble (peak ~$1000/BTC), we spent over a year in the $250 neighborhood.
I would call those "crashes".

So why is a crash now unbelievable? Even a crash to $5000/BTC or so?
Doesn't mean that "Bitcoin is finished" or whatever. Just that the price is lower (comparatively) for a while.

Quote from: Alns on January 09, 2018, 04:11:59 PM

if bitcoin crashes, another altcoin will replace it.

This much is probably true, even if only temporarily. The Ethereum price, f'rex, is growing pretty rapidly right now, even with other coins taking a bath. Bitcoin isn't the only game in town anymore, so even people getting out of one cryptocurrency can just move to another.

Alns

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Wow, are there still people who believe in that bitcoin will crash at some point? And if bitcoin crashes, the other altcoins will be much more stronger as what they are right now.

Maybe at the beggining a lot of people are going to be worried about that, but at some point, everything needs to move forward, if bitcoin crashes, another altcoin will replace it.

And no, i am not worried about that, and for those who are saying that bitcoin will crash, i guess that you did not even bought a single fraction of bitcoin on your whole lifes.

cindygirl

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 08, 2018, 05:38:42 PM

Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7p2bwq/2018_cryptocurrency_crash_elliott_wave/

I don't think that other cryptocurrencies will ever cease to exist, even worst case scenario I'm sure that in time the market will recover, there is too much promise and too much good for the market to ever disappear entirely.

fabiorem

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Another day, another FUD operation.

btcone111

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bitcoin has indeed proven TA wrong again and again since the rally from $6K to $20K.
Having said that, I'm not surprised if btc revisits $8K

babygun

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Quote from: cellard on January 09, 2018, 10:24:32 AM

People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

Exactly, some people think they can predict bitcoin price with some nice statistics and graphs, but bitcoin (and other altcoins) follow their own route.

cellard

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Activity: 1372

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People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

faatipoke

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Token That Will Transform The Venture Capital Mark

can someone post an actual image of that chart, I can not look it in reddit or imgur.

As I see in low quality photo this elliott wave analysis is wrong. Waves can not be that sharp. We are in the fourth correction inside the third rising wave. This will end in one to three months and we are going to start the fifth and the final rising of the bitcoin in the big third rising wave. This final is not the end because we are going to have another big fourth correction and big final rise up to hundreds of dollars, maybe the era of the cryptocurrencies.

This is what the best analists and me say

NUFCrichard

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Meh, if the price falls to where it was 10 months ago, that isn't the end of the world!

If the majority of Cryptocurrencies no longer existed, I really think the crypto world would be better off. There are probably a maximum of 25 worthwhile coins, the others are copies and crap, even if they are worth over $1 billion!

The prices won't go up forever, but I am more confident of the crash being controlled now, than I was 6 weeks ago when everything was going crazy!

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