Topic: 2020 Democrats - page 36. (Read 12637 times)

I was wrong about California, I thought the rules were the same for every state. 15% to be viable. But in California it's a little bit more complex than that, apparently part of the rules is that you get delegates for 15%+ in a congressional district.


We're only at 37% of the total delegates so far and the tallying hasn't completed yet

There are still 2480 delegates to go (3,979-1,499).

Bernie needs like 1991 to win and has 382.

So he would need to win about 65% of the remaining delegates if my math is correct and my assumptions are accurate, which I seriously doubt because I don't really know much about the actual rules and how this all plays out.

Here's the math 2480*0.65 + 382 = 1994 
                               ^
                            1612

Considering what's happened tonight I think a majority is really unlikely. Even if we get a plurality the DNC can steal this from us. But I'll keep supporting Bernie.
                           

Funny thing about Tulsi: most people in Hawaii don't like her anymore. Hawaii politicians are very politician-y. They tend not to give a shit about how the people they represent voted, doing whatever it takes to get in the good graces of D.C. Tulsi was one of Bernie's biggest supporters last time around, but I don't see her getting any delegates there. Not that Hawaii has ever mattered in any national election, ever.

Actually, reviewing the final totals for HI in 2016, delegates gave 19 votes to Sanders and 15 to Hillary, so they indeed favored Sanders, as they should -- he received over 70% of the vote there. I just remember being pissed at my local "representatives" for casting their vote for Hillary when their districts overwhelmingly votes for Bernie.


Oh, yeah, looking at the popular vote tally, it sure would seem that way. I just wonder which way delegates will go. Bernie's gonna need all the help he can get.

I bet Tulsi wins Hawaii (yeah, she's still running)

Everyone called Minnesota over an hour ago. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-minnesota-president-democrat-primary-election.html

Biden is still live in TX:

Looks like Warren staying in cost Bernie MA and MN.  Biden didn't even campaign in either state and it looks like he's going to win both by 5+%


Big congrats to Bloomberg

Hillary admitted to the email deletions pretty much why Trump won.

Biden bent rules to get his loser son a job. While stupid while wrong most likely it will be less harmful then Hillary deleting the emails.

Personally I liked Bernie and Andrew Yang.

Not going to be . Oh well.

Not if no-one else is viable. There's a good chance that Biden doesn't get that 15% in California.

Both CA and TX issue delegates proportionately.  Even if Sanders takes the win in both states, I think Biden will still have enough delegates to win the day.  But it's early yet, the eastern states have only forty some odd percent reporting.  Things could change.

I just watched Biden's speech.  Two things I can came away with:

And now we've officially shown that the center lane theory is actually working, didn't work in 2016 against Trump, but it sure as shit may work for Biden now. I don't see how he'd be a good nominee in the least, guy is a senile old man who won't be able to stand in a debate against Trump for his life. Biden was able to call in all the favors that he'd been building up for his lifetime career in the Congress and 8 years the VP -- that's the way he's going to be able to become the nominee.

The Bernie Bros are going to be pissed again, and I think that if Biden is the nominee that guarantees a Trump victory. But ya know, I said Bernie wouldn't have risen to this point -- Flying Hellfish corrected me -- but I GUESS I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG??

The show goes on!

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293/how-many-delegates-do-the-2020-presidential-democratic-candidates-have

Biden has gained >100 delegates over Bernie so far but TX and CA will likely change that.

Colorado mails everyone a ballot that you can mail in or drop off. (Must mail early because it has to arrive at election office to be counted before a certain time on election day. Post marks don't count. Although you can drop off at a drop off box until the last moment.) My ballot was mailed over 2 weeks ago. So they have had plenty of time to do "exit polling." Unfortunately for me, my candidate dropped out, and I can't change my vote.  

According to npr.org:

Biden wins: VA NC AL OK TN
Bernie wins: VT CO (not sure how they call it so early - only 20% counted)

So that's half of Super Tuesday states but the largest ones are still to come.

Bloomberg might get 15%+ in NC and TN
Warren might get 15%+ in MA

Edit - they call MN for Biden too.

There were almost 60000 absentee ballots cast in Minnesota before Amy's announcement. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/02/klobuchars-exit-shows-a-downside-of-early-voting-in-minnesota  Amy might still win it. 

Yeah I don't think it was supposed to be this bad, but at the end of the day -- a large majority of people were making the decision in who they were voting for in the final days, and with Pete and Amy dropping out it really saved Bidens campaign. I think the real way to prove if these last minute endorsements really did something is for all of us to watch Minnesota. Before Amy dropped out, the race was a two way race b/w Bernie and Amy, with Biden being FAR behind. If Biden is able to win or get the race very close in Minnesota -- it shows that the center lane clearing theory is working and these endorsements worked.

NYTimes Needle is saying that Biden will probably win Minnesota - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/forecast-minnesota-primary.html

I thought Virginia was supposed to be much more evenly split than 2:1 in Biden's favor (even more than that now, 53% to 23%). We should probably blame the beltway establishment and the withdrawals and the endorsements for such a massive advantage there.

I'm not sure if I'm going to give into the bias of the early results, as these were all favored to go to Biden. But in terms of media, and the coverage he's going to get, this is without a doubt going to help Biden portray himself as the most electable. People care about what they see first, and things lose their effect later on in the day / night / etc.

But yes, Biden has been doing good so far. Bloomberg is doing pretty shit -- tons of wasted money all around. Warren is doing pretty horrid as well.

It's looking quite bad for Sanders so far.

3-hour wait times in California, like WTF.

I know there are other things going on right now. But Bloomberg has won his first state --err I mean territory of American Samoa. Tulsi Gabbard came in second.

This awards them 5 delegates and 1 delegate respectively. If the current debate rules stay in place by the DNC, Tulsi and Bloomberg will both have a permanent spot on the debate stage. Been a long time since Tulsi was on the stage. But this could be changed by the DNC!

As we expected Bernie wins Vermont. Biden wins NC and Virgina. As of now!

It sounds like the final model uses features that are outputs (predictions) from other models, and sometimes those other models use features that are outputs from other models.

Keep in mind that a classification model that is accurate 90% of the time is considered 'good', so 538's 'final' model may be relying on inaccurate information (they say they account for this possibility, at least this is how I read their 'how it works' article).

When 'training' a model, you need a lot of data to avoid overfitting. At the end of the day, there are only presidential elections every 4 years, and less frequently if you remove primary seasons that are not really competitive (such as the current GOP primary season). It is not entirely clear how they are accounting for this.

I would point out that if the probabilities change a lot after an election, that means either one of their downstream models was incorrect, or their 'final' model made a bad prediction.

The point I was trying to make in my previous post is that what is important to voters has changed since Trump got elected, and this means that certain assumptions that could have been good assumptions in previous models, may no longer be good assumptions. Not directly related to a changing electorate, but the DNC had thresholds to get on the debate stage, one of which was the number of individual donors, so early in the primary season, some candidates were spending $50+ to get a new $5 donor. A feature might have been able to accurately predict outcomes in previous elections might not have similar accuracy in the 2020 election, and this may hold true after these thresholds are dropped as campaign staff likely got more efficient at getting new donors.

1. Bernie has details on how his plans will be implemented. He's not like other candidates. If you want to make this argument, you have to provide examples of where he is failing to provide details. From watching him live I can also tell that his brain is functional and he's not an automaton like many of the other candidates.

2. Bernie has a very strong character and here's the proof. He got himself arrested fighting for black rights. How many people would get arrested fighting for other people's rights, especially when it's not popular.

That was in 1963 when Bernie was a 21 year old student.

I don't wanna take more space with another pic on this thread but here's a source on that, with a good photo: https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-bernie-sanders-1963-chicago-arrest-20160219-story.html


I feel like I'm spamming this thread with all my replies so I might just lurk for a while. Can't wait to see if Bernie does well on Super Tuesday.

Speaking for myself, I hated Hillary with a vengeance for the stuff she did as a congresswoman and as Sec State.  Mostly I was also convinced that she would do anything which Israel told her to do.  This after she totally covered for the IDF when they shot an American in the back of the head on the deck of the MV Mavi Marmara in international waters.  I'm pretty sure that we'd have already nuked Iran, lost our 2nd amendment, and have forced vaccinations if the bitch had gotten in.

It must be said that way back in the Bill Clinton times I hoped she would be prez someday because I was happy with Bill Clinton's legacy.  Then Chelsea.  Man-o-man was I an ignorant fool!

As for Bernie, it's a funny thing going on.

  1) I don't sense that he is a very bright guy with realistic policies which have any hope of working as he (says he) thinks they will.

  2) I think he is a weak person who would be muscled into anything with very little effort (in part because of the way he bowed down and kissed Clinton's ring when instructed to do so in spite of being severely ass-raped weeks before.

So, if all of his ideas are bad but they could easily be changed by bullies, doesn't that mean that they would change the to something 'good'?  Probably not.  I'm sure 'they' would let him go all in on the 'socialist' stuff and give him more than he asks for on the totalitarian front since that's what's needed to make his ideas 'work'.

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BTW, I doubt seriously that Hillary won the popular vote.  Looks like an agreement which served all of the swamp creature's interests:  Dems don't say much about the 'popular vote', and Repugs don't expose the intensity of the voter fraud that went into making the 3M.