Topic: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers - page 231. (Read 34991 times)
Şenol Güneş, the coach of the Turkish national team, left his job. Instead of Şenol Güneş, it was agreed with the German coach Stefan Kuntz. We will now see Kuntz as coach in the remaining matches of WCQ. Turkey has a qualified staff. Güneş did not use this squad. What will Kuntz do? Will they be able to beat Norway in the first match? We will see them all soon.
Conflicts with a coach or players are an element of chance and it is not always clear how they affect the result - for example, the warring players try to compete as much as possible and the team's overall game improves, but it also happens vice versa. Therefore, I do not think that bookmakers, even if they could take these indicators into account, they would do it, they care about real statistics and the volume of players' bets.
Well... if this method has worked well for them, then I don't think that there is a need to change. But this is one of the factors that an ordinary gambler always look for (i.e sportsbooks underestimating a team as a result of machine calculations). Only the outcome of the match will give an indication to who is smarter here - the gambler or the sportsbook. And I agree with the last point. Bookmakers prefer not to take these matters in to account, even if they have detailed information regarding the same.
The problem is that when they use algorithms to calculate the odds, they can't input data such as issues with the coach or between the players. These things can have an impact on the outcome of the match. The algorithm is mostly based on recent performances and availability of the players. On the other hand, gamblers will be having information on such issues and they will flag odds when they notice that they don't represent the current situation. Usually the sportsbooks manually review odds after machine calculation, but this may happen only for high profile matches.
Conflicts with a coach or players are an element of chance and it is not always clear how they affect the result - for example, the warring players try to compete as much as possible and the team's overall game improves, but it also happens vice versa. Therefore, I do not think that bookmakers, even if they could take these indicators into account, they would do it, they care about real statistics and the volume of players' bets.
This happens a lot when it comes to sports betting, the casinos thanks to the algorithms that they have and the simulations that they make in order to predict outcomes have the closest thing to the real probabilities that we can expect, however all of that goes out of the window the moment people begin to actually put their bets, we know that a lot of people like to play it safe and they always go with the favorite, and even if it was obvious that Pacquiao was not on his best shape we know that he has produced profits for safe bettors for years, so they just put a bet on him but this time around he finally failed to meet the expectations, so something similar could be at stake here.
The problem is that when they use algorithms to calculate the odds, they can't input data such as issues with the coach or between the players. These things can have an impact on the outcome of the match. The algorithm is mostly based on recent performances and availability of the players. On the other hand, gamblers will be having information on such issues and they will flag odds when they notice that they don't represent the current situation. Usually the sportsbooks manually review odds after machine calculation, but this may happen only for high profile matches.
We must remember that the odds of the matches not only follow the probabilities of a certain team beating the other but also depend heavily on the people taking the bets, it seems that people really trust that Norway will beat Turkey and the sportsbooks have decreased the odds given to Norway to create an incentive for other gamblers to bet on Turkey and balance their books, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to get a value bet on Turkey if you ask me.
I thought about it too, and I immediately remembered a recent case of such distorted odds - in the Pacquiao-Spence match (which was unfortunately canceled and Pacquiao lost to another weaker opponent), the bets on Spence's win were very attractive (although he was an obvious favorite) due to for the fact that many Pacquiao fans were betting on Pacquiao and the bookmakers were forced to take this into account.
It is good that they have a couple of top players with one of the best goalies (Courtois) in the world, but I think that the defense is the weakest point in Belgium. They score very easily a goal, but also get a lot of goals against them, even with Courtois. But you are also right, sometimes they try to be a little bit too technical.
I don't think defense is a weak element for the Belgian national team - at the moment they have the fewest goals conceded in their qualifying group. I don't think that 4 conceded goals is a lot in 6 games, especially if you remember that they scored 21. The only match where they conceded a goal and lost points was an away match against the Czech Republic (1-1) which is a very strong opponent.
That is not too bad... There are teams which rely on just one top player, at least they have three, right? Besides the players you mentioned Belgium has a pretty balanced team with a very good goalkeeper which can offer a decent challenge even to the considered strongest teams. They just need to shape their strategy a little more and maybe stop being too technical and turn into a more creative gameplay to surprise tough adversaries like Italy on the field.
Nothing bad as such. But the problem is that it makes easier for the opposition to devise strategies against them. If the entire team is dependent on just one player, then the other team can ask 2-3 defenders to make sure that he never gets anyway near the ball. And this can impact the prospects of teams like Norway. Anyway, it is just my personal opinion, and doesn't have to be true all the time. If that was the case, then such teams would be losing matches all the time. But Norway has been doing well in Group G.
That is not too bad... There are teams which rely on just one top player, at least they have three, right? Besides the players you mentioned Belgium has a pretty balanced team with a very good goalkeeper which can offer a decent challenge even to the considered strongest teams. They just need to shape their strategy a little more and maybe stop being too technical and turn into a more creative gameplay to surprise tough adversaries like Italy on the field.
It is good that they have a couple of top players with one of the best goalies (Courtois) in the world, but I think that the defense is the weakest point in Belgium. They score very easily a goal, but also get a lot of goals against them, even with Courtois. But you are also right, sometimes they try to be a little bit too technical.
For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).
The problem is that Belgium also relies on their top players such as Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. You could see that in their match against Denmark on the EURO 2020 cup. The first half Belgium couldn't create any chance; at mid-time De Bruyne comes in and we saw a totally different Belgium.
For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).
The problem is that Belgium also relies on their top players such as Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. You could see that in their match against Denmark on the EURO 2020 cup. The first half Belgium couldn't create any chance; at mid-time De Bruyne comes in and we saw a totally different Belgium.
Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.
I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!
I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!
For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).
Exactly, but as we have seen during the European Championship final when Portugal won it, they won it without Ronaldo as he had to leave the pitch after an early injury. They compensated for him quite well even though every team in the world is dependent on such players like Ronaldo. As you said that is different with Haaland. If he had to leave very early during an important game, Norway would be significantly weakened to a degree where it is doubtful that the rest of the team could compensate for Haaland the same way Portugal can compensate for Ronaldo.
Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.
I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!
I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!
For Belgium, I was referring to Lukaku. Anyway, you are right. They do have very good players apart from Lukaku. Same with the case of Portugal as well. At least these two teams are not dependent like Norway is on Haaland, or Sweden during the Zlatan era. This makes it easy for the opposition to come up with their tactics. All they need to do is to prevent Haaland from getting the ball. But that doesn't work everytime and as a result we have Norway with 13 points from their 6 matches currently (same as that of Netherlands).
Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.
I would assume that it is not because Turkey might be good, or might be bad but more about how well will Norway play? It is obvious that Turkey did not play well, they were overachieving for a while, during euro qualifiers and then first half of this world cup qualifiers as well, but since the euro 2021 itself, Turkey has been nothing but just disappointing. So, normally I would say easily Norway, but do we really feel like Norway will be good too? Sure Haaland is great and all but that's about it, that's all we have to go with. So, I am assuming this game will be an underwhelming game to watch.In any case Turkey has a new manager after such a horrible stint from the previous one, I am assuming the new one may want to start with a big bang and that could result with some changes both on the roster and also on the playstyle as well. This could be a good start for them.
I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.
Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.
Ugh, I am not so sure if I would agree with you that Portugal and Belgium are good examples for teams that are dependent on single players. Portugal had some very high profile players with them besides Ronaldo and I guess for Belgium you refer to De Bruyne? Belgium also has a pretty strong team on almost every single position.
I think Norway is a pretty classical example for an (almost) one-man-show. They do have a couple of players that are decent, but after all it is quite a one-man-show. It is sometimes even a one-man-show when Haaland plays with Dortmund!
We must remember that the odds of the matches not only follow the probabilities of a certain team beating the other but also depend heavily on the people taking the bets, it seems that people really trust that Norway will beat Turkey and the sportsbooks have decreased the odds given to Norway to create an incentive for other gamblers to bet on Turkey and balance their books, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to get a value bet on Turkey if you ask me.
I thought about it too, and I immediately remembered a recent case of such distorted odds - in the Pacquiao-Spence match (which was unfortunately canceled and Pacquiao lost to another weaker opponent), the bets on Spence's win were very attractive (although he was an obvious favorite) due to for the fact that many Pacquiao fans were betting on Pacquiao and the bookmakers were forced to take this into account.
I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.
Teams that are overdependent on one player are not doing good recently (take the case of teams such as Portugal and Belgium in Euro 2021 as an example). It is difficult to make a choice between Norway and Turkey at this point. The odds look attractive for Turkey and naturally many of us would prefer placing a bet on them. The match is being played in Istanbul as well. But after that horrible 1-6 defeat to Netherlands, I simply don't have enough courage to make a bet for them. I am not sure whether they will recover from that defeat anytime soon.
Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.
I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.
Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.
I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.
This is really amazing considering what we've discussed above. Perhaps it makes sense now to bet on Turkey while the odds on it are high (since it is considered an underdog), but closer to the match, if the odds change, place a bet on Norway and get a guaranteed win? Well, or do nothing at all and hope for a victory for Turkey by placing a bet on it.
I really believe that most of the revised odds is going back to the fact that Haaland is in outstanding shape. They expect him to be one of the superstars of that tournament even though he might not make it close to the finals because the rest of the team isn't good enough, but group stage is doable for them. 8th October is the most important day for Norway during these qualifiers. It is going to be tough to play that game away in a Turkish stadium. That's going to be a hell of a game as both teams know what's on the line. Probably even worse watching it.
Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.
I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.
This is really amazing considering what we've discussed above. Perhaps it makes sense now to bet on Turkey while the odds on it are high (since it is considered an underdog), but closer to the match, if the odds change, place a bet on Norway and get a guaranteed win? Well, or do nothing at all and hope for a victory for Turkey by placing a bet on it.
Yes, formally Turkey will be the favorite in this confrontation, but we have already seen a lot of unexpected results over the last weekend and I think we can see something similar here. I've checked a couple of bookmakers right now and still don't see a odds for this match. I think it is quite difficult for bookmakers to find the odds for this event now, since in many ways it looks random.
I checked a few sportsbooks, and it looks as if Norway is the favorite at this point (which is a surprise for me). Maybe the poor form of Turkey during the Euro 2021 and the thrashing they received at the hands of the Netherlands recently forced bookies to change the odds. Anyway, a win by Norway would signal the end of Turkey's hopes of qualifying for Qatar 2022. Because then Norway will be having 16 points, compared to 11 for Turkey. And apart from one match against the Dutch, the remaining matches for Norway are against weak opponents.
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