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Topic: 2023 Elliott Wave - page 4. (Read 1428 times)

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 02, 2023, 01:24:15 PM
#34
The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.
I say again that I am not talking about the channel,
I'm talking about line 2-4
And I don't think it's normal for wave 5 PRIMARY to break line extension 2-4

sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
February 02, 2023, 01:19:27 PM
#33
The channel drawn on the Bitcoin chart is not an Elliott Wave channel, its just an arbitrary classical Technical Analysis trendline capturing the most points on a trend; of which, a number of interpretations can be made.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 02, 2023, 01:17:59 PM
#32


Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?



line 2-4

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 02, 2023, 01:10:36 PM
#31
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998

I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

Either of the following are possible:



but your BTC count is not any of these 3, you draw a channel, but the bottom line is not wave 2-4 PRIMARY, you are joining two points of different degrees, you do not join points 2 and 4 of the same wave PRIMARY.
I thought it could be understood without having to draw a picture.
sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
February 02, 2023, 12:49:54 PM
#30
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998
I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Unsure of your question, perhaps you can draw it ?

Either of the following are possible:

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 02, 2023, 12:40:56 PM
#29
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998
I am not referring to the channel, I am talking about an Elliot rule that wave 5 cannot cut the extension of line 2-4

Sorry, now I have doubts, the rule is that line 2-4 should not be cut by wave 3. Although I have always thought that wave 5 could not cut the extension of line 2-4, unless wave 5 was a terminal wedge
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1403
Disobey.
February 02, 2023, 12:27:44 PM
#28
It's very interesting to see how the long-term projections also align well with halving-cycles and the increase of value for Bitcoin.
Just from previous experience this Elliot-wave pattern seems very plausible. But then again, any kind of prediction works great until it doesn't anymore.
Personally I would expect a similar outcome mid/long term - however many unforseen events can have strong short-term impacts that would disrupt this pattern for a while quite significantly.
sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
February 02, 2023, 10:16:35 AM
#27
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?

—In equity markets wave3 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.
—In commodity markets wave5 often overshoots the wave2-wave4 channel.

To know why this happens, watch from 1:23:18 to 1:28:24: https://youtu.be/jJA58dxmzQk?t=4998
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 02, 2023, 09:47:05 AM
#26
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
and can wave 5 break wave 2-4 in this case?
sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
February 02, 2023, 03:08:47 AM
#25
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?

The 2-4 parallel channelling is just a guide, which may not work well with exponential logarithmic charting !
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 532
February 01, 2023, 06:58:59 PM
#24
I always thought that wave 5 prices couldn't break through the 2-4 line, and in your count it does in PRIMARY wave.
The only exception were waves 5 in the form of terminal wedges. in which their respective waves 2 and 4 could cross the main 2-4, but this wave 5 looks more like an expanding triangle.

If it is valid, why not draw the line 2-4 and get the channel parallel to that 2-4?



sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
February 01, 2023, 09:53:37 AM
#23
Curious that your count for Bitcoin has us starting Wave 5 but Wave 3 for equities. Do you see a great decoupling to come or is it just there's no time frame data to be gleaned from the counts (i..e differing wave counts could play out within the same time frame)?

Each market, each asset class, each stock, is in their own Elliott Wave trajectory. There are times when markets correlate, and there are times when markets decouple.

There are variations in wave degree where markets may correlate with each other, but one market could be in say PRIMARY[3] and an other market in INTERMEDIATE(3) degree —both in bull markets, but the at the time of correction, one leads with a steeper decline and slower recovery. E.g.

—Japan NIKKEI225 index was decoupled from the rest of the developed equities world in the 1990s for decades onwards, re-aligned in 2009.
—Bitcoin greatly decoupled from the S&P500 and global equity markets starting in 2014 for a year, and started to correlate with gold.
—Gold has usually been, and thought of, as a decoupled hedge against equites, but has been correlated since 2015.

Interestingly, the current PRIMARY[5]→INTERMEDIATE(5) wave in Bitcoin could be the longest wave within PRIMARY[5]. This would be a reverse symmetry of the wave lengths (in terms of percentages) that occurred in PRIMARY[1] wave; i.e. the waves within PRIMARY[1] contracted, and the waves within PRIMARY[5] are expanded...

member
Activity: 119
Merit: 19
February 01, 2023, 08:38:17 AM
#22
Curious that your count for Bitcoin has us starting Wave 5 but Wave 3 for equities. Do you see a great decoupling to come or is it just there's no time frame data to be gleaned from the counts (i..e differing wave counts could play out within the same time frame)?
sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
January 28, 2023, 08:19:47 AM
#21


sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
January 24, 2023, 01:50:28 PM
#20
Hi @xxxx123abcxxxx I still have some questions about the following bitcoin analysis  Tongue

AFAIK the third wave can never be the shortest and in your graphic seems to be the shortest one. Let me show it over your analysis courtesy of @Meigo from Forobits

https://forobits.com/uploads/default/original/3X/7/0/707ab2b89b0529b345be79a61c2ce119f203e742.png

Sorry if i'm wrong. I'm trying to fully understand your analysis.

Adding some guidelines as reference.
https://i.ibb.co/rvs4LVH/wave-3-elliot.png

Thanks!

The third PRIMARY[3] wave is NOT the shortest. Elliott Waves are measured in terms of points, not percentages. A logarithmic chart provides an illusory impression that PRIMARY[1] wave is the longest.

Code:
PRIMARY [1] : 1242 points
PRIMARY [3] : 19642 points
PRIMARY [5] : still underway


 
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1130
Truth will out!
January 24, 2023, 01:05:05 PM
#19
Hi @xxxx123abcxxxx I still have some questions about the following bitcoin analysis  Tongue

BTC/USD



AFAIK the third wave can never be the shortest and in your graphic seems to be the shortest one. Let me show it over your analysis courtesy of @Meigo from Forobits



Sorry if i'm wrong. I'm trying to fully understand your analysis.

Adding some guidelines as reference.


Thanks!
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1130
Truth will out!
January 21, 2023, 07:36:35 AM
#18
Thanks for the clarification xxxx123abcxxxx! Let's see what happens from now on.
sr. member
Activity: 571
Merit: 284
January 21, 2023, 07:22:08 AM
#17
Hi, what's your opinion on B at 60,000$ being slightly higher than 5?

Detailed screenshot from your analysis:
https://i.ibb.co/Tmw7mnw/2023-elliot-btc.jpg

Shouldn't it be a little lower?

Thanks

Its an Irregular B-wave, also known as an Expanded Flat correction...

legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1130
Truth will out!
January 21, 2023, 06:52:54 AM
#16
BTC/USD



Hi, what's your opinion on B at 60,000$ being slightly higher than 5?

Detailed screenshot from your analysis:


Shouldn't it be a little lower?

Thanks
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1394
January 21, 2023, 06:22:45 AM
#15
the bull run continues it looks like we have a strong buyer, I just watch the awesome oscillator and it looks like doesn't loose its power  Grin but stochastic RSI and fibbonaci says it need to cool down first before another run, Want to buy but still scared at this time  Grin Grin
Me, I was worried because we gain a huge percentage of pumps in just a short period of time.
I am still waiting for the monthly candle close for this month and I will observe the price action of Bitcoin starting February up to the end of this first quarter of the year.
Overall, now I am still not satisfied for the market is already in a bull market.
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