Topic: 2^256 Deep Space Vagabond - page 5. (Read 38737 times)

Glad to see that you're interested!

It's mostly written in AHK (are you familiar with it?), as I wanted to experiment a little bit more with that language, and it allowed for real quick GUI prototyping...  Also, as stated in the original post, the actual address generation is delegated to vanitygen (with samr7's permission).

Could you elaborate on what you would plan to do with it?

Sad to here that
What is the used language? I may be interested in applying

Although I still have tons of ideas to make Deep Space Vagabond more fun, I just don't feel motivated enough for implementing them and maintaining this project anymore. However, I don't want to see it die, so if anyone would like to take it over, let me know. Note that I will consider the online reputation of any interested parties as I wouldn't like this project to fall in the wrong hands.

What is the probability (per check) of finding a valid, activated credit card number and selecting the correct CVV, cardholder's name, and expiration date, assuming the expiration date is not beyond five years into the future?

Maybe just for a US Capital One MasterCard credit card, to keep things simple. Uses MOD 10 algorithm. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mod_10 The first six digits of these cards are 517805. Digits 7-15 are unknown - the account ID #. Digit 16 is the MOD 10 checksum number.

This means there is a total pool of 99,999,999 accounts. Assume 10,000,000 are activated.

Expiration date is simple. Most (all?) aren't valid for more than 5 years. That gives a 1/60 chance of getting only the expiration date correct per check.

Cardholder's name is more of a clusterfuck. Let's assume only looking at "black" and "white" names (we're looking for a US account, remember) gives you 85% of all total active accounts. Let's assume common names make up 60% of all total active accounts, and that there are 50,000 common name combinations.

CVV is easy, and we'll assume we don't know how Capital One comes up with these numbers, so it's a simple 1/999 chance.

So. We need to successfully correct all of them in one go, and we have one ~1/10 chance (account #), one 1/60 chance (exp. date), one ~1/83333 chance (cardholder name), one 1/999 chance (CVV).

I think the per-check probability of all this comes to .000000000020020100300621424707921073926538% (low confidence, someone smart should check this because I originally posted this post as a question but ended up giving enough data where I thought I could solve it).

Keep in mind, per-check chance of finding funded bitcoin address is ~0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000034211388289180104270598866779539%.

To make the numbers a little easier to grasp, here is %chance of finding bitcoin address if "DSV-like software can check 5000 addresses (10M of which are funded or will be funded within 6 months) per second, and 100 botnets of 50,000 computers each":
Per century,
0.00000000000000000000053944517054379188413880293137978%
If 100 botnets of 50,000 computers could check only 1,000 addresses per second (5x slower than above stats for bitcoin), the chance of correctly guessing info on an activated credit card is:
Per century,
10.01005015031071235396%

ETA: I left out PIN number. Point still stands.

It saves all keys in a plaintext file called "dsv_bkp.txt", in the same folder as the executable.

Where will it save keys it finds?

So how long do i need to run this until i get hold of satoshis stash?

Nice!

Do you need hosting or something? What was holding it back before?

As a special end-of-summer treat, the DSV download link is up again

You're probably right. Although an address collision is in fact impossible by any sensible standard, this statement is also "a traditional story" or bitcoin "ideology in narrative form".

q.e.d. ■

If you're going to probe then you might as well probe 1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a since it has such at a high value.

Yeah, right. People aren't that stupid. The way you make it sound, we probably spend tens of billions on bottled water more expensive per gallon than gasoline.

And then the price of BTC drops to $5 each.

I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.

0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.

Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.

It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.

[Lloyd in 'Dumb and Dumber']So you're telling me there's a chance...[/LiD&D]


  Actually when somebody takes the time to do calculations of probability, that's pretty much the definition of 'taking account of luck'.


Sheesh. Fine. Reciprocal odds. Happy now?

To be exact:

Assume N(t) = the number of Bitcoin addresses that have a positive balance at time t.

The probablity of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:

    Probablity_collision(t) = N(t) / 2¹⁶⁰

The odds of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:

    Odds_collision(t) = N(t) : (2¹⁶⁰ - N(t))

Since N is a function of time the probablity and odds are also a function of time.

Since N(t) is much less than 2¹⁶⁰ these can both be approximated as the static constant values:

    Probablity_collision is about 1 / 2¹⁶⁰

    Odds_collision is about 1 : 2¹⁶⁰

Hmm
The guy said "0% chance"
That means odds
So I assumed odds

That isn't odds.

If you say 1:2^160 then that's odds, or some other calculation, but just saying 2^160 doesn't mean odds.

He was talking about address collision
The odds of an address collision is 2^160

2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space.