Topic: [ 24 feb report ] bitcoin price theory proposal - page 7. (Read 19813 times)

I traslated and posted my work at first post of this topic

[MOVED] Here a table of data that I extracted from blockchain.

This part of  job I'm doing for (try) deriving
the equation in the price of bitcoin.

In the bottom of the table there is' a short key to understanding

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block#  219008  31/01/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                        8387837   0.00%   0.00%  87.8371%                            0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          257643  17.31%  13.92%   2.6980%  22.18%                    0.00258  17.31%  13.92%   0.0000%         0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     415288  91.22%  65.80%   4.3489%  35.76%                   64.93732  84.69%  32.78%   0.0006%         0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                264220  78.70%  30.65%   2.7669%  22.75%                 5652.22117  82.94%  44.90%   0.0527%         0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                     81336  75.15%  35.94%   0.8517%   7.00%                42749.48925  80.73%  39.37%   0.3987%         0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       42010  71.36%  34.08%   0.4399%   3.62%               108635.32924  73.04%  34.26%   1.0131%         0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      16876  71.52%  28.62%   0.1767%   1.45%               129445.54555  72.81%  28.78%   1.2072%         0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     17384  70.15%  24.88%   0.1820%   1.50%               288170.45007  71.19%  25.22%   2.6875%         0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     48581  94.81%  84.84%   0.5087%   4.18%              2300191.17522  96.10%  88.35%  21.4519%         0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4477  76.39%  33.86%   0.0469%   0.39%               261510.73477  75.29%  32.33%   2.4389%         0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     3862  80.45%  26.67%   0.0404%   0.33%               358836.04428  81.43%  27.34%   3.3466%         0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7471  72.67%  17.98%   0.0782%   0.64%              1687777.98429  73.80%  18.19%  15.7405%         0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1268  71.69%  14.43%   0.0133%   0.11%               948818.97571  72.46%  14.90%   8.8488%         0.00000
> 1000 BTC                              1055  68.34%  26.92%   0.0110%   0.09%              4590697.32916  67.48%  23.21%  42.8135%         0.00000
                  Totale Attivi      1161471  69.43%  42.05%  12.1629% 100.00%             10722550.21844  75.99%  36.33% 100.0000%         0.00000
                  Totale Generale    9549308   8.44%   5.11% 100.0000%                     10722550.21844  75.99%  36.33% 100.0000%         0.00000
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block#  223666  28/02/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                        9118741   0.00%   0.00%  87.9288%             730904         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          302752  14.84%  11.85%   2.9193%  24.18%      45109         0.00303  14.84%  11.85%   0.0000%         0.00045
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     428661  90.51%  63.71%   4.1334%  34.24%      13373        66.45288  85.75%  31.83%   0.0006%         1.51556
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                290704  73.75%  27.54%   2.8032%  23.22%      26484      5861.27324  82.07%  42.86%   0.0541%       209.05207
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                     86698  73.27%  32.82%   0.8360%   6.93%       5362     44913.22998  79.37%  36.33%   0.4144%      2163.74073
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       43704  70.88%  31.68%   0.4214%   3.49%       1694    112336.97511  73.01%  32.01%   1.0364%      3701.64587
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      16665  73.01%  27.70%   0.1607%   1.33%       -211    128313.48049  74.47%  27.79%   1.1838%     -1132.06506
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     16039  73.47%  25.51%   0.1547%   1.28%      -1345    267476.25126  74.56%  25.72%   2.4677%    -20694.19881
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     48575  94.98%  84.26%   0.4684%   3.88%         -6   2299969.43153  96.16%  87.83%  21.2194%      -221.74369
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4385  74.75%  32.27%   0.0423%   0.35%        -92    257002.77644  73.81%  30.72%   2.3711%     -4507.95833
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     3724  78.09%  25.32%   0.0359%   0.30%       -138    344154.84006  79.03%  26.11%   3.1752%    -14681.20422
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7554  72.88%  16.59%   0.0728%   0.60%         83   1709540.87925  74.16%  16.92%  15.7721%     21762.89496
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1316  72.19%  13.15%   0.0127%   0.11%         48    985493.20223  73.28%  13.60%   9.0921%     36674.22652
> 1000 BTC                              1080  67.87%  24.07%   0.0104%   0.09%         25   4683871.28761  67.64%  20.97%  43.2131%     93173.95845
                  Totale Attivi      1251857  65.93%  38.74%  12.0712% 100.00%      90386  10839000.08291  76.10%  34.63% 100.0000%    116449.86447
                  Totale Generale   10370598   7.96%   4.68% 100.0000%             821290  10839000.08291  76.10%  34.63% 100.0000%    116449.86447
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block#  229009  31/03/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                       10034935   0.00%   0.00%  88.2258%             916194         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          304727  14.78%  11.77%   2.6791%  22.75%       1975         0.00305  14.78%  11.77%   0.0000%         0.00002
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     474163  87.86%  57.51%   4.1688%  35.41%      45502        74.91923  80.14%  27.84%   0.0007%         8.46635
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                310336  72.05%  25.20%   2.7284%  23.17%      19632      6469.70633  78.66%  37.91%   0.0590%       608.43309
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                     97590  73.85%  27.91%   0.8580%   7.29%      10892     50883.01320  79.48%  30.77%   0.4637%      5969.78322
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       49257  71.32%  25.82%   0.4331%   3.68%       5553    126508.65237  73.60%  26.01%   1.1530%     14171.67726
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      18223  75.60%  22.42%   0.1602%   1.36%       1558    141056.42901  77.06%  22.47%   1.2855%     12742.94851
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     17495  74.48%  20.47%   0.1538%   1.31%       1456    292067.42849  75.61%  20.71%   2.6618%     24591.17724
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49207  94.68%  81.95%   0.4326%   3.67%        632   2319755.10586  95.92%  85.94%  21.1414%     19785.67433
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4343  75.62%  28.00%   0.0382%   0.32%        -42    256518.78449  74.89%  26.43%   2.3378%      -483.99195
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     3970  79.75%  21.13%   0.0349%   0.30%        246    367494.50436  80.59%  21.76%   3.3492%     23339.66430
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7634  71.82%  14.38%   0.0671%   0.57%         80   1709354.12278  73.18%  15.17%  15.5784%      -186.75647
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1196  70.99%  12.63%   0.0105%   0.09%       -120    893335.20063  72.19%  13.06%   8.1415%    -92158.00160
> 1000 BTC                              1079  66.73%  23.35%   0.0095%   0.08%         -1   4809053.79906  66.33%  19.70%  43.8280%    125182.51145
                  Totale Attivi      1339220  65.66%  35.71%  11.7742% 100.00%      87363  10972571.66867  75.35%  32.88% 100.0000%    133571.58576
                  Totale Generale   11374155   7.73%   4.21% 100.0000%            1003557  10972571.66867  75.35%  32.88% 100.0000%    133571.58576
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block#  233976  30/04/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                       11253545   0.00%   0.00%  87.7139%            1218610         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          368233  30.49%   9.74%   2.8701%  23.36%      63506         0.00368  30.49%   9.74%   0.0000%         0.00064
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     569677  86.55%  47.76%   4.4403%  36.14%      95514        85.68008  79.33%  23.74%   0.0008%        10.76085
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                346861  72.16%  21.75%   2.7036%  22.00%      36525      7229.94472  79.88%  32.72%   0.0652%       760.23838
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    119470  74.78%  21.21%   0.9312%   7.58%      21880     60990.28638  79.80%  23.99%   0.5496%     10107.27318
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       60385  73.35%  18.62%   0.4707%   3.83%      11128    153947.53363  75.26%  18.92%   1.3873%     27438.88126
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      22406  77.34%  15.50%   0.1746%   1.42%       4183    174269.17175  78.73%  15.51%   1.5705%     33212.74274
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     20485  74.68%  14.32%   0.1597%   1.30%       2990    342289.95412  75.62%  14.55%   3.0846%     50222.52563
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     50329  94.23%  78.40%   0.3923%   3.19%       1122   2354263.84887  95.58%  83.04%  21.2158%     34508.74300
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4514  74.59%  22.31%   0.0352%   0.29%        171    266422.98708  73.96%  20.85%   2.4009%      9904.20259
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4237  80.60%  15.34%   0.0330%   0.27%        267    393557.83335  81.32%  15.77%   3.5466%     26063.32899
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7472  70.70%  12.38%   0.0582%   0.47%       -162   1665475.47155  71.72%  13.33%  15.0087%    -43878.65122
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1154  71.49%  11.53%   0.0090%   0.07%        -42    897908.77693  73.24%  11.51%   8.0916%      4573.57630
> 1000 BTC                              1066  67.17%  21.86%   0.0083%   0.07%        -13   4780304.96328  66.27%  18.81%  43.0784%    -28748.83579
                  Totale Attivi      1576289  68.70%  29.74%  12.2861% 100.00%     237069  11096746.45518  75.28%  30.82% 100.0000%    124174.78651
                  Totale Generale   12829834   8.44%   3.65% 100.0000%            1455679  11096746.45518  75.28%  30.82% 100.0000%    124174.78651
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block#  238953  31/05/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                       12304763   0.00%   0.00%  87.9590%            1051218         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          366499  30.68%   9.78%   2.6199%  21.76%      -1734         0.00366  30.68%   9.78%   0.0000%        -0.00002
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     627957  85.30%  43.31%   4.4889%  37.28%      58280        96.01629  78.88%  21.08%   0.0009%        10.33621
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                376073  72.04%  19.87%   2.6883%  22.33%      29212      7883.16342  78.24%  29.71%   0.0703%       653.21870
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    135943  72.35%  18.38%   0.9718%   8.07%      16473     69263.12928  77.14%  20.85%   0.6173%      8272.84289
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       66548  71.60%  16.49%   0.4757%   3.95%       6163    167781.01024  73.61%  16.93%   1.4952%     13833.47661
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      23620  75.72%  14.26%   0.1688%   1.40%       1214    183083.24393  77.25%  14.31%   1.6316%      8814.07218
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     20513  72.94%  13.87%   0.1466%   1.22%         28    341291.50368  73.93%  14.13%   3.0415%      -998.45045
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49539  93.76%  79.25%   0.3541%   2.94%       -790   2324949.92965  95.22%  83.68%  20.7193%    -29313.91922
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4188  71.80%  23.40%   0.0299%   0.25%       -326    246559.92885  71.08%  21.91%   2.1973%    -19863.05823
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4099  77.60%  15.20%   0.0293%   0.24%       -138    382205.05097  78.55%  15.57%   3.4061%    -11352.78238
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7106  67.75%  12.57%   0.0508%   0.42%       -366   1606267.44796  69.39%  13.38%  14.3146%    -59208.02359
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1245  71.49%  10.20%   0.0089%   0.07%         91    967737.13345  73.12%  10.25%   8.6242%     69828.35652
> 1000 BTC                              1109  66.01%  20.83%   0.0079%   0.07%         43   4924056.18953  65.29%  18.19%  43.8818%    143751.22626
                  Totale Attivi      1684439  68.68%  27.71%  12.0410% 100.00%     108150  11221173.75068  74.00%  30.20% 100.0000%    124427.29550
                  Totale Generale   13989202   8.27%   3.34% 100.0000%            1159368  11221173.75068  74.00%  30.20% 100.0000%    124427.29550
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block#  244161  30/06/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC)                       13233455   0.00%   0.00%  88.4152%             928692         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          366059  30.80%   9.80%   2.4457%  21.11%       -440         0.00366  30.80%   9.80%   0.0000%        -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     647122  85.21%  42.02%   4.3235%  37.32%      19165        99.94465  78.63%  20.21%   0.0009%         3.92835
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                400082  72.25%  18.60%   2.6730%  23.07%      24009      8451.40175  77.64%  27.59%   0.0745%       568.23833
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    145555  71.35%  17.02%   0.9725%   8.39%       9612     73045.49742  76.41%  19.62%   0.6435%      3782.36814
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       65661  69.80%  16.52%   0.4387%   3.79%       -887    163422.60228  71.90%  17.18%   1.4397%     -4358.40796
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      22075  73.46%  14.99%   0.1475%   1.27%      -1545    171559.63484  75.16%  15.02%   1.5114%    -11523.60909
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     20104  71.81%  13.87%   0.1343%   1.16%       -409    336334.30391  72.97%  14.06%   2.9629%     -4957.19976
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49302  93.69%  78.96%   0.3294%   2.84%       -237   2312792.15091  95.17%  83.43%  20.3746%    -12157.77874
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4210  71.31%  22.83%   0.0281%   0.24%         22    248787.84551  70.60%  21.27%   2.1917%      2227.91666
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4130  77.85%  14.72%   0.0276%   0.24%         31    384343.35520  78.78%  15.10%   3.3859%      2138.30422
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7241  68.08%  12.08%   0.0484%   0.42%        135   1636352.95607  70.19%  12.87%  14.4155%     30085.50811
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1290  72.17%   9.69%   0.0086%   0.07%         45   1007743.50784  74.18%   9.69%   8.8777%     40006.37439
> 1000 BTC                              1112  67.00%  19.78%   0.0074%   0.06%          3   5008440.57021  65.25%  17.01%  44.1219%     84384.38068
                  Totale Attivi      1733943  68.78%  26.85%  11.5848% 100.00%      49504  11351373.77400  73.98%  29.23% 100.0000%    130200.02332
                  Totale Generale   14967398   7.97%   3.11% 100.0000%             978196  11351373.77400  73.98%  29.23% 100.0000%    130200.02332
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  249526  31/07/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       14240978   0.00%   0.00%  88.8563%            1007523         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          367054  31.26%   9.77%   2.2902%  20.55%        995         0.00367  31.26%   9.77%   0.0000%         0.00001
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     662330  85.08%  41.04%   4.1326%  37.08%      15208       104.90082  78.37%  19.21%   0.0009%         4.95618
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                415564  72.19%  17.84%   2.5929%  23.27%      15482      8634.98690  77.68%  26.89%   0.0752%       183.58516
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    156838  71.14%  15.68%   0.9786%   8.78%      11283     79620.92641  75.63%  17.86%   0.6932%      6575.42899
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       73441  67.97%  14.61%   0.4582%   4.11%       7780    178623.08026  70.66%  15.55%   1.5552%     15200.47798
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      23993  74.88%  13.63%   0.1497%   1.34%       1918    185407.04478  76.38%  13.74%   1.6143%     13847.40993
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     19914  71.18%  13.75%   0.1243%   1.12%       -190    332305.42170  72.43%  13.96%   2.8933%     -4028.88221
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     48899  93.46%  78.78%   0.3051%   2.74%       -403   2291961.90281  94.99%  83.31%  19.9553%    -20830.24810
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4220  71.21%  22.30%   0.0263%   0.24%         10    249625.16371  70.54%  20.74%   2.1734%       837.31820
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4055  77.83%  14.92%   0.0253%   0.23%        -75    376992.74790  78.78%  15.32%   3.2823%     -7350.60730
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7203  67.54%  11.93%   0.0449%   0.40%        -38   1626302.39808  69.33%  12.76%  14.1596%    -10050.55799
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1359  73.58%   9.12%   0.0085%   0.08%         69   1067665.70951  75.88%   9.09%   9.2958%     59922.20167
> 1000 BTC                              1131  65.78%  19.10%   0.0071%   0.06%         19   5088253.13559  63.14%  16.45%  44.3015%     79812.56538
                  Totale Attivi      1786001  68.89%  26.00%  11.1437% 100.00%      52058  11485497.42190  72.93%  28.53% 100.0000%    134123.64790
                  Totale Generale   16026979   7.68%   2.90% 100.0000%            1059581  11485497.42190  72.93%  28.53% 100.0000%    134123.64790
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  255363  31/08/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       15579681   0.00%   0.00%  89.2177%            1338703         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          396070  36.50%   9.05%   2.2681%  21.04%      29016         0.00396  36.50%   9.05%   0.0000%         0.00029
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     697399  85.21%  38.97%   3.9937%  37.04%      35069       111.07613  78.04%  18.06%   0.0010%         6.17531
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                445508  71.64%  16.57%   2.5512%  23.66%      29944      9538.39485  76.05%  24.25%   0.0820%       903.40794
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    159549  73.46%  15.31%   0.9137%   8.47%       2711     79362.43862  78.18%  17.81%   0.6823%      -258.48779
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       71672  69.19%  14.85%   0.4104%   3.81%      -1769    179483.31166  71.36%  15.35%   1.5431%       860.23141
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      24860  74.34%  12.93%   0.1424%   1.32%        867    192006.94456  75.87%  13.03%   1.6508%      6599.89979
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     20390  71.15%  13.24%   0.1168%   1.08%        476    339771.85369  72.43%  13.47%   2.9212%      7466.43198
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49146  93.41%  78.22%   0.2814%   2.61%        247   2299709.92695  94.94%  82.86%  19.7715%      7748.02414
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4211  70.58%  21.71%   0.0241%   0.22%         -9    249289.41214  70.03%  20.08%   2.1432%      -335.75157
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4096  77.27%  14.40%   0.0235%   0.22%         41    380940.13974  78.33%  14.78%   3.2751%      3947.39184
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7358  67.07%  11.40%   0.0421%   0.39%        155   1658901.52097  68.98%  12.20%  14.2622%     32599.12289
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1409  73.67%   8.66%   0.0081%   0.07%         50   1107191.34651  75.88%   8.67%   9.5190%     39525.63700
> 1000 BTC                              1193  67.14%  17.69%   0.0068%   0.06%         62   5135117.56544  63.15%  15.88%  44.1487%     46864.42984
                  Totale Attivi      1882861  69.92%  24.62%  10.7823% 100.00%      96860  11631423.93495  72.84%  27.86% 100.0000%    145926.51305
                  Totale Generale   17462542   7.54%   2.65% 100.0000%            1435563  11631423.93495  72.84%  27.86% 100.0000%    145926.51305
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  260990  30/09/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       16674646   0.00%   0.00%  89.6106%            1094965         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          394928  36.62%   9.08%   2.1224%  20.43%      -1142         0.00395  36.62%   9.08%   0.0000%        -0.00001
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     693834  84.69%  39.15%   3.7287%  35.89%      -3565       114.10909  78.38%  17.50%   0.0010%         3.03296
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                477346  70.01%  15.41%   2.5653%  24.69%      31838     10127.36193  75.94%  22.76%   0.0860%       588.96708
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    174970  70.95%  13.87%   0.9403%   9.05%      15421     87269.86388  74.56%  16.11%   0.7413%      7907.42526
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       76427  67.76%  13.79%   0.4107%   3.95%       4755    188741.76855  70.30%  14.44%   1.6033%      9258.45689
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      25914  74.48%  12.29%   0.1393%   1.34%       1054    200711.10944  76.05%  12.35%   1.7050%      8704.16488
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     21152  70.67%  12.62%   0.1137%   1.09%        762    353067.22690  71.95%  12.82%   2.9992%     13295.37322
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49671  92.93%  77.31%   0.2669%   2.57%        525   2318642.32632  94.59%  82.11%  19.6961%     18932.39936
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4501  69.47%  19.66%   0.0242%   0.23%        290    267199.86428  68.85%  18.14%   2.2698%     17910.45214
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     4246  76.50%  13.31%   0.0228%   0.22%        150    394503.42227  77.54%  13.66%   3.3512%     13563.28253
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7635  65.67%  10.82%   0.0410%   0.39%        277   1713351.33644  67.16%  11.66%  14.5543%     54449.81547
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1437  72.16%   8.42%   0.0077%   0.07%         28   1124203.26288  74.75%   8.48%   9.5497%     17011.91637
> 1000 BTC                              1185  64.73%  17.72%   0.0064%   0.06%         -8   5114167.34080  63.26%  15.92%  43.4431%    -20950.22463
                  Totale Attivi      1933246  69.10%  23.93%  10.3894% 100.00%      50385  11772098.99647  72.39%  27.43% 100.0000%    140675.06152
                  Totale Generale   18607892   7.18%   2.49% 100.0000%            1145350  11772098.99647  72.39%  27.43% 100.0000%    140675.06152
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  267189  31/10/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       18001187   0.00%   0.00%  89.9016%            1326541         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          407203  38.03%   8.80%   2.0337%  20.14%      12275         0.00407  38.03%   8.80%   0.0000%         0.00012
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     716401  84.12%  37.91%   3.5779%  35.43%      22567       122.99748  77.26%  16.20%   0.0010%         8.88839
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                521947  70.44%  14.02%   2.6067%  25.81%      44601     10648.23132  76.94%  21.53%   0.0893%       520.86939
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    182199  73.59%  13.20%   0.9099%   9.01%       7229     88200.42568  77.67%  15.81%   0.7395%       930.56180
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       76999  69.50%  13.52%   0.3845%   3.81%        572    189430.47644  71.39%  14.20%   1.5882%       688.70788
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      25587  73.55%  12.17%   0.1278%   1.27%       -327    199054.36094  75.16%  12.19%   1.6689%     -1656.74850
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     22395  71.27%  11.72%   0.1118%   1.11%       1243    374582.75840  72.48%  11.87%   3.1406%     21515.53150
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49583  93.02%  76.99%   0.2476%   2.45%        -88   2312869.11730  94.65%  81.84%  19.3918%     -5773.20902
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4441  68.39%  19.41%   0.0222%   0.22%        -60    264077.49424  67.76%  17.86%   2.2141%     -3122.37004
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     5103  80.68%  10.88%   0.0255%   0.25%        857    479749.42776  81.79%  11.03%   4.0224%     85246.00549
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7609  66.72%  10.66%   0.0380%   0.38%        -26   1701762.55599  68.34%  11.54%  14.2681%    -11588.78045
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1402  70.47%   8.56%   0.0070%   0.07%        -35   1078818.16875  72.73%   8.74%   9.0451%    -45385.09413
> 1000 BTC                              1153  65.31%  16.22%   0.0058%   0.06%        -32   5227757.91765  65.62%  11.30%  43.8310%    113590.57685
                  Totale Attivi      2022022  69.61%  22.83%  10.0984% 100.00%      88776  11927073.93574  73.55%  25.04% 100.0000%    154974.93927
                  Totale Generale   20023209   7.03%   2.31% 100.0000%            1415317  11927073.93574  73.55%  25.04% 100.0000%    154974.93927
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  272382  30/11/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       20153011   0.00%   0.00%  90.2116%            2151824         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          405171  38.24%   8.85%   1.8137%  18.53%      -2032         0.00405  38.24%   8.85%   0.0000%        -0.00002
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     768250  83.21%  35.31%   3.4389%  35.13%      51849       138.56183  75.58%  14.19%   0.0011%        15.56434
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                591800  69.20%  12.12%   2.6491%  27.06%      69853     12711.65881  74.63%  17.67%   0.1054%      2063.42750
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    211798  70.95%  10.92%   0.9481%   9.69%      29599    100345.92633  75.98%  13.40%   0.8323%     12145.50065
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       87742  69.84%  11.04%   0.3928%   4.01%      10743    216270.55855  71.67%  11.53%   1.7937%     26840.08211
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      28477  72.85%   9.90%   0.1275%   1.30%       2890    222648.11674  74.66%   9.88%   1.8466%     23593.75580
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     23582  70.98%  10.05%   0.1056%   1.08%       1187    394208.54852  72.50%  10.23%   3.2696%     19625.79012
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49652  93.03%  75.58%   0.2223%   2.27%         69   2310236.03752  94.65%  80.62%  19.1611%     -2633.07978
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4621  70.27%  17.16%   0.0207%   0.21%        180    275382.44810  69.76%  15.66%   2.2840%     11304.95386
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     5369  82.29%   9.01%   0.0240%   0.25%        266    506511.99276  83.30%   9.11%   4.2010%     26762.56500
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7618  68.54%   9.46%   0.0341%   0.35%          9   1692997.28346  69.90%  10.28%  14.0417%     -8765.27254
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1514  73.51%   7.13%   0.0068%   0.07%        112   1164854.22560  75.85%   7.30%   9.6613%     86036.05685
> 1000 BTC                              1105  66.33%  16.20%   0.0049%   0.05%        -48   5160593.49730  69.30%  10.63%  42.8020%    -67164.42035
                  Totale Attivi      2186699  69.22%  20.88%   9.7884% 100.00%     164677  12056898.85927  75.78%  23.74% 100.0000%    129824.92353
                  Totale Generale   22339710   6.78%   2.04% 100.0000%            2316501  12056898.85927  75.78%  23.74% 100.0000%    129824.92353
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  277997  31/12/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of att  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vuoti (0 BTC)                       22441758   0.00%   0.00%  90.4651%            2288747         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          404280  38.36%   8.87%   1.6297%  17.09%       -891         0.00404  38.36%   8.87%   0.0000%        -0.00001
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     847019  82.64%  32.00%   3.4144%  35.81%      78769       162.81388  74.23%  11.96%   0.0013%        24.25205
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                668303  69.87%  10.59%   2.6940%  28.25%      76503     13963.94830  76.12%  15.85%   0.1145%      1252.28949
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    226412  72.06%  10.01%   0.9127%   9.57%      14614    108218.11728  76.81%  12.19%   0.8872%      7872.19095
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       95003  69.19%   9.86%   0.3830%   4.02%       7261    233059.78513  70.93%  10.34%   1.9108%     16789.22659
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      29992  72.25%   8.98%   0.1209%   1.27%       1515    233938.55174  74.16%   8.96%   1.9180%     11290.43500
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     24236  70.10%   9.28%   0.0977%   1.02%        654    403972.84523  71.55%   9.47%   3.3120%      9764.29671
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49906  92.97%  74.92%   0.2012%   2.11%        254   2321854.58095  94.60%  79.96%  19.0358%     11618.54344
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4508  71.61%  16.99%   0.0182%   0.19%       -113    269043.68708  71.13%  15.48%   2.2058%     -6338.76102
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     5439  82.37%   8.59%   0.0219%   0.23%         70    513632.90805  83.38%   8.67%   4.2110%      7120.91529
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7588  69.39%   8.76%   0.0306%   0.32%        -30   1707653.00812  70.44%   9.33%  14.0003%     14655.72466
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1541  71.84%   6.68%   0.0062%   0.07%         27   1181905.22759  74.39%   6.94%   9.6899%     17051.00199
> 1000 BTC                              1096  67.88%  11.04%   0.0044%   0.05%         -9   5209868.29249  70.74%   6.61%  42.7134%     49274.79519
                  Totale Attivi      2365323  69.79%  19.20%   9.5349% 100.00%     178624  12197273.76960  76.29%  21.54% 100.0000%    140374.91032
                  Totale Generale   24807081   6.65%   1.83% 100.0000%            2467371  12197273.76960  76.29%  21.54% 100.0000%    140374.91032

num      : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut   : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead    : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot  : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act  : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut   : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead   : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal  : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table

donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN

                gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org

Yes true, some little impact, but the total addresses are really "little affected" from this news...
I think that only small investors are influenced by the news !

Maybe but the pace of non zero address creation certainly declines after bad news?

If we assume that most newcomers to BTC will be investing between 0.1 - 5 BTC

According to your stats the no. of addresses in that range -

                   October 31            November 30                                  December 31
0.1-1 BTC        182 000               212 000         (a 17% increase)     226 000        (a 6.5% increase)
1-5 BTC           77 000                 88 000          (a 14% increase)     95 000          (a 7.5% increase)

The China news managed to slow the pace of 0.1-5 BTC address creation by over 50%.

you can see in a chart I posted here.... the answer is NO !
about no impact  on bitcoin adoption rate... no the "cipro", nor in the "cina" prices peak.

Isn't the total addresses just an indication of the adoption rate/network effect.

IMO a more interesting question would be...

Does the pace of address creation decline after negative news?

For example, after China stopped new deposits into exchanges, the price of BTC declined a lot.
But did the amount of new BTC addresses created decline/slow down by a comparable amount?
If it has not then it would  indicate that the price has over-reacted to the impact China will have on slowing BTC adoption.

My next step is try to understand why  the equation P=(I^2.26)/(e^32) 
(derived from the statistical analysis) seems to work so good.

gbianchi thanks for sharing such crucial stats with all of us. I hope it will be helpful for all those investors who are either holding bitcoins or are planning to invest in bitcoins soon. And 10 times thank for the key which really made it easy to understand the stats easily. 

I have already done, it is part of my study soon
translate in English (for now  written in Italian)


I also made ​​a function of the price of bitcoin
function of the total addresses:

P=(I^2.26)/(e^32)

where

P = Bitcoin rice in US$

I = Total number of addresses
e = Euler's number (2.71828)

here the chart: red = bitcoin proce, blue = my equation, green = Linear regression

This information is nice but doesn't say much about the distribution of wealth.
I believe many bitcoiners have multiple wallets.

What is interesting is the stable grade of increase on all classes of holders after 1-1-2012.
If you interpolate this slope you will get a good idea on the future bitcoin price.

Number of addresses for range of balance:



BTC value for range of balance:



From these graphs we see that in the beginning of 2011 had not yet been well-established ranges of the capital and the speed 'of growth, while from mid-2011 onwards consolidate certain proportions that remain fundamentally unchanged until today.

It 'a table of data that I extracted from blockchain.

This part of  job I'm doing for (try) deriving
the equation in the price of bitcoin.

In the bottom of the table there is' a short key to understanding

There's a key at the bottom, but too many numbers make me feel like this:

I just see a bunch of numbers and no explanations.


edit-- the op was completely different than what it is now incase ppl are wondering what i meant

                         A BITCOIN PRICE THEORY

This short work is an attempt to find a law of bitcoin price . It is a work in progress ,
there may be errors even coarse that you reported to me , so critical and / or additions .

After about a month of work , I edit this first post to summarize the results obtained.



terminology

Zero address :  A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
                 but currently has a zero balance.

Active address : A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
                  and currently has a NON zero balance .

Total addresses : Zero + active addresses.

Active user : Any user who has one or more active addresses .


working steps :

1 ) Obtain the tables with data from the blockchain (number of addresses for range of balance,)
  number of bitcoins for range of balances, Total addresses, etc. .. )

2 ) Obtain the tables on prices.

3 ) Obtain the regressions of 2) and look for the data that best correlate with 1 )

4) derive a (possible) pricing formula

at the end, I added some faq and a PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL



STEP 1: BLOCKCHAIN ANALYSIS ​​

For the determination of an equation of  bitcoin  price, I started from the idea of
analyze the data contained in blockchain .So , I started to write a program
that parses the blockchain to extract the data in a structured way .

With continued work, more and more I realized that the blockchain
is a source of valuable information , since it allows to evaluate even the smallest
details of the evolution in the bitcoin universe.

From discussions with users of the forum ( thank you in particular ercolinux ,
giubi66 , ovijunno for interesting suggestions) I have improved the methods of
data extraction.

In particular , I created the reference range of balances in BTC ,
and of these I extracted data on a daily basis.

In summary, to avoid publishing dozens of graphics and / or tables
with tedious data, I have found that the "total number of addresses"
has two interesting properties ' :

1) from October 2011 are growing on a regularexponential basis.

2) apparently are not affected by changes in prices and the news good or bad
(either in April 2013 or the recent peak in November !!!!)

( The line at top of chart  is the total number of addresses present in blockchain )



From this chart we can see that at the beginning of 2011 had not yet been well-established
the ranges of capital and the speed ' of growth, while from mid-2011 onwards are consolidated
certain proportions that remain fundamentally unchanged until today.

The same conclusion, that towards the end of 2011 the world is bitcoin "stabilizes"
is obtained by looking at the chart for the total value of BTC in every range of balance:



The universe bitcoin enters 2012 with the social classes of the rich and the poor already
well-defined and basically unchanged ratios since now !

Here is a graphical representation of the distribution of bitcoin addresses for range of balance:



As we see more than 90% of the addresses are empty. I think the total number of addresses
(consisting largely of empty address as is easily seen here) and that I use in my formula,
accurately measures the use of the bitcoin network , and the number of transactions.

So it could lead to a "network value" as given by the famous Metcalfe's Law
If the exponent that I have found to be 2.26 instead was more close to 2, maybe I could say
have discovered something really important !

interesting comparison between the graph of the total number of addresses ( without the addresses to balance 0)
and the graph of the total capital in BTC :



Please note that in the two charts the order of the data is inverted for clarity:
the left chart and the first data is small capitalization in right chart first data is hight capitalization.


0.05% of addresses ( those with balance > 1000 ) that are a slice of the graph to the left absolutely invisible ,
has more 'than 42 % of the capital, the largest slice in the right chart !

STEP 2: PRICES ANALISYS

The price analysis was definitely more simple: I wrote a simple program
that takes prices from blochckain.info .

The interesting consideration is that the prices ( although in a more irregular way)
are growing exponentially, and so I created the regressions
on a logarithmic scale in order to have the indicators less " nervous " of proce speed growth .

Here is the result :



As you can see I have 3 calculated regression lines : since the beginning of 2011 , by the beginning of 2012 and beginning of 2013.


STEP 3: COMPARISON OF BLOCKCHAIN DATA  ​​/ PRICE

The comparison between the two "worlds" , the seemingly chaotic and irregular prices, and the
completely "calculable" of blockchain , led me to some interesting results .

the growth curve of the totla addresses , has a nearly perfect correlation ( by end of 2011)
with the regression line price !





STEP 4: THE PRICE EQUATION

with a little elementary math, was easy to derive from this series of observations
an "Hypothetical" (but very effective ) price equation :

definitions:

I = total number of addresses (From blockchain)
P = price in dollars (The result)

m = coefficient angular straight line ( constant to be determined)
P = ordinate at the origin (constant to be determined)

^ = Exponentiation

We derive the equation of the price from the period of strong correlation identified
from previous studies of price in dollars and the total number of addresses .

since the linear correlation on logarithmic axes, we can assume:

m * log (I) + p = log ( P)

for the values ​​of I p , we use addresses and prices
the extremes of the strong correlation :

I1 = number addresses to 01/01/2012 = 2773046
P1 = price at 01/01/2012 = $ 5.2

I2 = number addresses to 24/01/2013 = 24,296,059
P2 = price = $ 698.43 01/24/2013


can easily be obtained

m = (log (P2 ) -log ( P1 ) ) / (log (I2 ) -log (I1 ) ) = 2.25776380522923
p = log ( P1) - log (I1) * m = - 31.8462990266051

then the final equation will be :

2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 = log ( P)

e ^ ( ( 2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 ) ) = P

( I ^ 2.25776380522923 ) / ( e ^ 31.8462990266051 ) = P


Reduce the decimal places, that does not change the substance but make equation
easy to remember and even more elegant:

P = ( I ^ 2.26) / (e ^ 32 )



FAQ

1 ) So how much is the bitcoin tomorrow ?

Of course, as is easily seen from the graph, the function give a trend of prices ( llittle overestimated
than the average ) , this means that we do not give the exact price tomorrow or in a week , but rather
an indication of what can be a consistent price .

2 ) Does it work?

would have more or less worked for two years from early 2012 to now (though often overestimate )
but the trend was clearly indicated right . For the future, we will check together, if it continues to be valid
or not.

3 ) why it work?

This is a typical case in which we get a hypothetical "reads" from a statistical analysis. Now it is right to ask
 'why it should work. I did have some idea , namely that in the end the total number of addresses is
a great aggragato of important factors in determining the price, in particular:

  a) definitely depends on the number of users ( as seen from the correlation with the number of active addresses )

  b ) and definitely ' also dependent on the speed' of movement, ie the number of remains , operations and overall
      new addresses that are handled in the course of operations.

  c) the square (plus .26) give me to think at something like Metcalfe's law ....

But I intend to deepen the investigation on this topic .


4) Please fit us a function for the price dependent on time   P(t) = function (time-offset) Thanks.

here the function you request:

P = e^(((days from 01/01/2012) * 0.0067) + 1.641))

example: price at 31/12/2014 =

days  from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2014 = 366 + 365 + 365 = 1096

P = e^((1096*0.0067)  + 1.641) =  7976.06132258175

5) the total number of addresses as a function of time ?

here the answer:

Addresses  = 2764582*e^((days from 01/01/2012)*0.00297)

that extimate for the end of 2014 about 71.000.000 of total addresses (active + zero)


PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL

After several trial and error, I found a function that has a good correlation with the trend of the price,
and has the great advantage of having a quadratic relationship with the performance of the addresses :

P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )

Where IZ is the number of zero addresses.

This complies with the law of metcalfe:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

I also think that zero addresses match better with the law of metcalfe for these properties:

1) each  zero balance address has at least one entry operation, in fact, appears in blockchain.

2) Each zero balance address has at least one operation in output that perfectly compensates the previous.

3) The addresses at a zero balance are more  than 90% of the total addresses , so perfectly represent the trend
   the whole network.

zero addresses have interacted in some way between them, creating network effect,
while many addresses with a positive balance may not have interact with anyone
(many addresses are used for storage who have never output operations).

I propose the following theory :



Bitcoin is a network and its value depends on the square of the addresses in zero balance,
that represent the nodes that interact, in accordance with the Metcalfe law:

P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )




Here the plot of the original function (the one with addresses in total)
and the new ( function address zero)





If you find this work useful and / or interesting and ' welcome a donation to support the project: 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN