Topic: 490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August - page 3. (Read 24327 times)
April 23, 2013, 07:17:25 AM
ROI is quickly going out the window, but the question becomes will people still run the ASIC's even if they are loosing money on power costs.
April 23, 2013, 06:42:48 AM
http://organofcorti.blogspot.ca/2013/04/913-asic-choices-asic-earnings-17-april.html
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
If you want to sink even lower, check out this post from the same guy: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
If you want to sink even lower, check out this post from the same guy: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html
Yep, we are really arriving to the "point of no ROI"
I think Avalon gave a good price for their chips. I hope they will be also kind enough to price their batch #4 at around 25BTC for 45GHs and 50BTC for 90GHs. I think they would still have a decent profit, while allowing for decent ROI also to batch #4 customers. Higher than that (0.55BTC per GHs), unfortunately I believe there won't be any ROI for batch #4, as I would expect that no batch #4 will be hashing in the wild before July.
April 23, 2013, 06:36:53 AM
http://organofcorti.blogspot.ca/2013/04/913-asic-choices-asic-earnings-17-april.html
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
If you want to sink even lower, check out this post from the same guy: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html
April 23, 2013, 06:29:00 AM
http://organofcorti.blogspot.ca/2013/04/913-asic-choices-asic-earnings-17-april.html
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
Fell out of chair with my laptop in hand and continued reading from the floor.
According to that guys assumptions we wont see batch #3 Avalons till july... with difficulty on roids.
Batch #4 was hinted at a late may / early june ship but ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1876668
considering there are no batch #2 in the wild let alone batch #3's... I now understand why im still on the floor as write this.
I requested a turbo boost button on the avalon batch #4 thread in case of emergency difficulty rising! I was joking when i said it but man ..
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1900115
April 23, 2013, 12:49:37 AM
KH-->MH-->GH-->PH/s. We're going to run out of letters! 
SI Prefixes
Multiple Prefix Symbol Example
1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (1018) exa- E Eg (exagram)
1,000,000,000,000,000 (1015) peta- P PJ (petajoule)
1,000,000,000,000 (1012) tera- T TV (teravolt)
1,000,000,000 (109) giga- G GW (gigawatt)
1,000,000 (106) mega- M MHz (megahertz)
1,000 (103) kilo- k kg (kilogram)
100 (102) hecto- h hm (hectometer)
10 (101) deka- da daN (dekanewton)
1/10 (10–1) deci- d dC (decicoulomb)
1/100 (10–2) centi- c cm (centimeter)
1/1,000 (10–3) milli- m mm (millimeter)
1/1,000,000 (10–6) micro- ( (F (microfarad)
1/1,000,000,000 (10–9) nano- n nm (nanometer)
1/1,000,000,000,000 (10–12) pico- p ps (picosecond)
1/1,000,000,000,000,000 (10–15) femto- f frad (femtoradian)
1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10–18) atto- a aT (attotesla)
When will we reach 1 Exa Hash per second? EH/s <---- Eh? Canadian named it.
April 23, 2013, 12:39:40 AM
KH-->MH-->GH-->PH/s. We're going to run out of letters!
April 23, 2013, 12:22:25 AM
Kind of OT but related, did Avalon confirm that they had shipped Batch 2? I believe the date for shipping was set to 4/15/13, but they might be staying mum to avoid bribing officials again.
The delays on everything ASIC is what kept me from ordering into the Chip batches, which I may or may not regret ~3months from now. Scares me that someone had 16k BTC to drop on chips, plus whatever they will pay to have them made into whatever they will become (unless burnin finds himself with an order for 1600 modules from one source)
The delays on everything ASIC is what kept me from ordering into the Chip batches, which I may or may not regret ~3months from now. Scares me that someone had 16k BTC to drop on chips, plus whatever they will pay to have them made into whatever they will become (unless burnin finds himself with an order for 1600 modules from one source
)People still waiting on batch 1. check the batch 1 thread.
April 22, 2013, 11:32:00 PM
Kind of OT but related, did Avalon confirm that they had shipped Batch 2? I believe the date for shipping was set to 4/15/13, but they might be staying mum to avoid bribing officials again.
The delays on everything ASIC is what kept me from ordering into the Chip batches, which I may or may not regret ~3months from now. Scares me that someone had 16k BTC to drop on chips, plus whatever they will pay to have them made into whatever they will become (unless burnin finds himself with an order for 1600 modules from one source)
The delays on everything ASIC is what kept me from ordering into the Chip batches, which I may or may not regret ~3months from now. Scares me that someone had 16k BTC to drop on chips, plus whatever they will pay to have them made into whatever they will become (unless burnin finds himself with an order for 1600 modules from one source
) April 22, 2013, 09:38:05 PM
Challenging is a good thing! If it was easy, where is the fun?
2P by 2013 year end. 500T BFL. 250T Avalon. 500T Avalon chips. 250T asicminer.
The only unknown is whether litigation will stop BFL (a minus) and whether Avalon comes up with higher spec asics for the fourth quarter (a plus). P x EV for both is of similar magnitude, so I'd say 2P give or take 10 percent?
2P by 2013 year end. 500T BFL. 250T Avalon. 500T Avalon chips. 250T asicminer.
The only unknown is whether litigation will stop BFL (a minus) and whether Avalon comes up with higher spec asics for the fourth quarter (a plus). P x EV for both is of similar magnitude, so I'd say 2P give or take 10 percent?
April 22, 2013, 09:28:17 PM
The network speed is certainly going to explode this year.
Throw all profitability calculator numbers out the window.. there is so much Th being deployed from so many different places that calculating ROI within reasonable doubt is quite challenging.
Throw all profitability calculator numbers out the window.. there is so much Th being deployed from so many different places that calculating ROI within reasonable doubt is quite challenging.
April 22, 2013, 09:24:37 PM
Everything about ASICS has been late so far. BFL super late, but even AVALON has yet to get ONE batch 2 in the "wild" and it was supposed to ship a month ago. From when Jeff got his batch 1 it pretty much still took over a month for anyone else to report having one - really took two months to have them out "in force".
While a half million chips may have been ordered, lets hope Avalon is as late with them as they have been with the rest of their stuff!
August? You really think whoever is buying these chips has enough capacity to get raw chips online and all that quickly?
While a half million chips may have been ordered, lets hope Avalon is as late with them as they have been with the rest of their stuff!
August? You really think whoever is buying these chips has enough capacity to get raw chips online and all that quickly?
Yes, there might be delays but overall, the capacity will be coming online this year.
April 22, 2013, 06:33:06 PM
watch yifu inadvertantly end up destroying bitcoin when all he was trying to do was protect it. 
may the force be with you
April 22, 2013, 06:25:00 PM
Everything about ASICS has been late so far. BFL super late, but even AVALON has yet to get ONE batch 2 in the "wild" and it was supposed to ship a month ago. From when Jeff got his batch 1 it pretty much still took over a month for anyone else to report having one - really took two months to have them out "in force".
While a half million chips may have been ordered, lets hope Avalon is as late with them as they have been with the rest of their stuff!
August? You really think whoever is buying these chips has enough capacity to get raw chips online and all that quickly?
While a half million chips may have been ordered, lets hope Avalon is as late with them as they have been with the rest of their stuff!
August? You really think whoever is buying these chips has enough capacity to get raw chips online and all that quickly?
April 22, 2013, 06:20:10 PM
Well avalon better seriously change their little equation for batch mini 4 then huh?
Avalon doesnt seriously have to do anything but..
All this difficulty speculation makes you wonder!?
So does avalons formula hold true for the batch 4 that was announced? If so for how long? Is there a chance that youre batch 4 @ 45Gh/s develops an unfavorable ROI before it ships or no ROI at all.. Tho, no date for purchase was announced, I think it was a late may or early june delivery time quoted..
Whats the life span of such a device in terms of profitability on its own at the speculated difficultys..
( (.)(.) This thread went from difficulty rising to were all dead pretty quick! )
April 22, 2013, 05:28:00 PM
watch yifu inadvertantly end up destroying bitcoin when all he was trying to do was protect it.
April 22, 2013, 04:55:19 PM
It's possible but I'm not convinced there will be this giant exodus from BTC to LTC . There will be a big one, but I don't think most GPU BTC miners will go to LTC after ASICS roll out en masse.
I mine LTC (albeit only have 5 gpus so I'm just a hobbyist miner guy) currently. The ROI is already not much over BTC returns due to difficulty. Thing is, while BTC will be raising, and float LTC's boat some much, I don't see as much USD/fiat gains rising for LTC to conceive that it will be worthwhile when the difficult goes up by 5000%* in a couple of months time. I don't think the valuation of LTC will increase at the rate needed to match the incredible skyrocket of difficulty that would result if most BTC miners switched over.
* made this number up obv, but it'll be insanely ridiculously large when the asic wave crests
Guess this is more a speculation-type post so maybe I'll just leave my thoughts on this as that, to not derail the thread...
I mine LTC (albeit only have 5 gpus so I'm just a hobbyist miner guy) currently. The ROI is already not much over BTC returns due to difficulty. Thing is, while BTC will be raising, and float LTC's boat some much, I don't see as much USD/fiat gains rising for LTC to conceive that it will be worthwhile when the difficult goes up by 5000%* in a couple of months time. I don't think the valuation of LTC will increase at the rate needed to match the incredible skyrocket of difficulty that would result if most BTC miners switched over.
* made this number up obv, but it'll be insanely ridiculously large when the asic wave crests
Guess this is more a speculation-type post so maybe I'll just leave my thoughts on this as that, to not derail the thread...
April 22, 2013, 04:41:43 PM
Or GPU miners will switch to Litecoin or other Cryptocurrencies.
April 22, 2013, 04:34:20 PM
Damn. That's a whole lot of ASIC going on.
And it actually looks like BFL might be shipping stuff in quantity in another month or two.
The difficulty is going to explode.
Sigh...my batch 3 Avalon order could not arrive soon enough.
I wonder if there will be an unheralded excess of used video cards going up for sale come summertime, or if many will stick around for the razor-thin margins.
And it actually looks like BFL might be shipping stuff in quantity in another month or two.
The difficulty is going to explode.
Sigh...my batch 3 Avalon order could not arrive soon enough.
I wonder if there will be an unheralded excess of used video cards going up for sale come summertime, or if many will stick around for the razor-thin margins.
April 22, 2013, 04:01:20 PM
40,000+ BTC at this funding address. That equals 50 order of 10,000 chips (approx.). You can see where the 490,000 chip estimate comes from.
April 22, 2013, 01:58:24 PM
What indicate 490k chips ? The five 3000Btc orders aren't factors of 782btc.
The sending address(es) sent 15614 BTC which is exactly 20x the cost of one batch + domestic shipping (780.7 BTC).
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