Topic: 490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August - page 5. (Read 24323 times)

here is what i think:
gpu has other purposes besides btc mining. if marginaly profitable i'll mine. if not i'll stop. at worst sell off a card or two. but i can always be back if need be. so yes, current diff is based on past price.

asic is different. i'll buy it to mine period. if unprofitable i'll sell it. but it's likely that to be profitable i need to run it like a business. large scale because of upfront cost. if in this scenario i loose interest in mining then i'll sell hw and whole company to a competitor. and will not be back.

with asic it's a one way street. and will result in small number of dominant players.

Thank you for the detailed analysis as well.

I'm not following you. I say that mining difficulty correlates strongly with past BTCUSD prices. Are you saying this is or is not the case?

Unlike with gpu asic  has not other useful purpose. If diff is too high, people will get rid of them and never come back. Consolidation of hash power is ineviteable.

Unless you use a different algorithm...  See here.  I agree this hashing power may spell the end of bitcoin as we know it.  Disagree?  Come talk to me about it.

lol.  damnit.  Now predict the future seer!   

Unlike with gpu asic  has not other useful purpose. If diff is too high, people will get rid of them and never come back. Consolidation of hash power is ineviteable.

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

What do you think will happen with btc price in august?

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

Does everyone agree with these numbers? Are they too low or high..
Regards,
Brian

So let's analyze your statement "difficulty will go up about 10X by August":

Let's make it by September because let's face it none of the players have met their self-made deadlines strictly so far.

Current Global Hashrate: 65 TH/s
Current Difficulty: 9.0 m

By August September:
Avalon batch 2 + 3: 1200 X 65 GH/s = 78 TH/s
Avalon raw chip increase: 500k X 282 MH/s = 141 TH/s
Big Time Coin hashrate increase: 500 X 96 GH/s = 48 TH/s
BFL hashrate increase (wild guess) = 50 - 100 TH/s
ASICMINER hashrate increase = 50 - 200 TH/s

Total hashrate increase: 367 - 567 TH/s

Difficulty after adjustment in September:

(9/65) X (367) = 50.8 m
to
(9/65) X (567) = 78.5 m

Or an increase of 5.6 X current to 8.7 X current difficulty.

Also, people will switch off their GPU miners and FPGA miners around this time or soon thereafter, mitigating the difficulty increase for September - December.  And there are no new technologies on the horizon that will exponentially increase difficulty thereafter, it will grow linearly. So while Avalon's difficulty calculation of doubling every month seems accurate for the next 3 months, it will not double any more after that and revert to more linear, less exponential growth.

So your Batch #3 avalon, assuming a cost of 100 Bitcoin and a hashrate of 96 GH/s, recieved in June or July, could potentially break even in 2 or 3 months.  Definitely buy and hold, you will find no better ROI anywhere.

I was wondering when/if someone would analyze the blockchain for payments



1. Almost all payments (with the exception of less than 800 BTC total) are exact multiples of the cost of one batch of chips (780.7 or 782.1 BTC: different shipping costs for different parts of the world).

2. I know the people behind some of these orders.

So yes, prepare for at least 530k chips or 150 Thash/s to hit the network soon. What else did you expect? This Avalon OEM chip sale is by far the largest and cheapest ASIC investment option available in the immediate future.

Dude you have to stop with the video.  I literally am going to choke from laughing.   

Relevant interview with BFL buyers:
http://youtu.be/_ERE4uiufqE