Topic: 490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August - page 6. (Read 24327 times)

I was wondering when/if someone would analyze the blockchain for payments



1. Almost all payments (with the exception of less than 800 BTC total) are exact multiples of the cost of one batch of chips (780.7 or 782.1 BTC: different shipping costs for different parts of the world).

2. I know the people behind some of these orders.

So yes, prepare for at least 530k chips or 150 Thash/s to hit the network soon. What else did you expect? This Avalon OEM chip sale is by far the largest and cheapest ASIC investment option available in the immediate future.

So let's analyze your statement "difficulty will go up about 10X by August":

Let's make it by September because let's face it none of the players have met their self-made deadlines strictly so far.

Current Global Hashrate: 65 TH/s
Current Difficulty: 9.0 m

By August September:
Avalon batch 2 + 3: 1200 X 65 GH/s = 78 TH/s
Avalon raw chip increase: 500k X 282 MH/s = 141 TH/s
Big Time Coin hashrate increase: 500 X 96 GH/s = 48 TH/s
BFL hashrate increase (wild guess) = 50 - 100 TH/s
ASICMINER hashrate increase = 50 - 200 TH/s

Total hashrate increase: 367 - 567 TH/s

Difficulty after adjustment in September:

(9/65) X (367) = 50.8 m
to
(9/65) X (567) = 78.5 m

Or an increase of 5.6 X current to 8.7 X current difficulty.

Also, people will switch off their GPU miners and FPGA miners around this time or soon thereafter, mitigating the difficulty increase for September - December.  And there are no new technologies on the horizon that will exponentially increase difficulty thereafter, it will grow linearly. So while Avalon's difficulty calculation of doubling every month seems accurate for the next 3 months, it will not double any more after that and revert to more linear, less exponential growth.

So your Batch #3 avalon, assuming a cost of 100 Bitcoin and a hashrate of 96 GH/s, recieved in June or July, could potentially break even in 2 or 3 months.  Definitely buy and hold, you will find no better ROI anywhere.

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

so help define the next mt gox

Agreed that the centralized exchanges (MTGox in particular) are a huge weak point in the current economy.

We've seen trouble manifest time and again when a major exchange has a major problem, yet the situation hasn't changed much (yet).

Relevant interview with BFL buyers:
http://youtu.be/_ERE4uiufqE

I don't think LiteCoin will be that important in the long term. If anything it [LiteCoin] will be a cheap way of converting and moving funds from one place to another.

Check my original post as I elucidated a bit more on what I think will happen next. I think the future will be what BitInstant is now. Except it will be on an individual level and minus the high fee rates for exchanging or converting transactions. I think the long term future (or should I say hope) will be someone writing an easy to use interface which will look at regional registrations.

Some individuals within those registrations will have ties to the "old fashioned" bank accounts. Others will have ties to different currencies, yet others to different forms of sending money (Western union, A specific Credit Union, Interkassa etc), yet others will have the capability to convert it into physical cash at some distant location etc.

I hope the future takes the control of money from regulated institutions and places it unto individuals with connections and a variety of methods of honoring that transaction. If you want your BitCoins (if it exists by then) denominated in 3 different currencies and in addition 2 types of money orders and 1 physical cash transaction to someone in another country, it can be done via this yet to be built interface.

I hope this is where it is going. The current system is incredibly vulnerable and subject to being seized.

The TeraHash issue is going to be pretty insignificant compared to a sudden future closure of MtGox by one or more governments.

agreed.  (see my sig)

They are very power efficient given that the amount of hashes/joule is very good. No idea what you're thinking.

Aka Litecoin? ASICs will not be happening for Litecoin for a LONG time. It already takes up 1.5 - 2 GB of memory for just around 500-600 khash.

These chips really aren't much more power efficient than FPGA. I'm afraid they will be obsolete by the time they get mounted on PCBs.

Luckily there are a ton of other less mature currencies which will allow newcomers to enter the markets. I doubt mining will end. It will just shift from one Coin to another. (IMO)

My [imaginary] crystal ball tells me that the biggest challenge to the Future of Coin Mining will be from governments. BitCoin needs to detach itself from the banking system. MtGox, BTC-e, BitFloor etc, will need to find alternatives to converting currency while side stepping the current fiat infrastructure.

Someone will eventually have to create a feedback system that is reliable and tied to a persons real or virtual permanent identity. A system that can keep tabs on decentralized transactions and multi-currency conversions without the direct aide of banks.

I think there are some steps in that direction, but they seem spotty at the moment. I don't think ASICs will be the end of anything anymore. It will simply push Virtual Currencies to be alot more distributed and flexible.

I'll be doing this, yes. But unfortunately not much. And the current price of ASICs is waaay overblown considering how much the difficulty will rise in one or two retargets. I can tell you right now, working 10 years every day of my life I still won't have even 50k.

What's happening right now, is that only the elite will mine Bitcoin.

Where on the store did it say they were offering infinite chips? funny that you guys throw around these figures as facts.

edit: ok i concede that chip supply is  technically infinite since you can still order it.

That is until end of 2013

"2. these chips will be available until at least end of the year, 2013."

source:
http://store.avalon-asics.com/?product=avalon-asic-chips-10000

I still say wallet total does not mean jack shit for the amount of chips bought. All speculation, could be any number of reasons for the BT to be in there. Only avalon knows.

It means GPU miners will be pushed out of BitCoin mining....Unless the extreme difficulty leads to each BitCoin being worth alot more (1,000 USD per BitCoin by summer).

If that happens, then expect the "new normal" to be people buying BitCoins in fractions up 8 decimal places. Personally I think people should focus on storing and increasing their current BitCoin Stockpiles.

If you do, it may very well keep you padded with enough cash to transition to the next generation of ASIC's. Maybe...

it's based upon what they are selling in their store... I am not speculating.

I'm debating whether this kills bitcoin or not.

According to BFL, they don't have a refund issue.  I know, I laughed too when I heard him say that.

All this is based on what? more speculation?

So for the average (non-ASIC owner) miner, what does this mean?