A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700

pilosopotasyo

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Quote from: katrina2 on March 02, 2021, 01:56:19 AM

From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

This is something we have to see, surprising that it will fall to the $10k level again only a pandemic like COVID will make it drop to that level again, we are in a new scenario it's hard to make a comparison on past chart to a new one, your assessment has if's on it, I believe that if Bitcoin will hit the $100k it will stabilize in the $70 to $80k level.

STT

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May occur, theres always some probability same as anything like a massive earthquake in Japan or whatever natural phenomena that far outranks our perfect view of the world and forthcoming events planned out.
In a normal view theres no special reason for a fall right now though its fair that a larger pull back occurs it doesnt have to. We already got the 50 day average as a low recently and that might be all the weakness seen for some time yet.

Right this moment i see the price as skipping along a similar price line and equate that to a stone skipping across a still lake, eventually it stops staying just above and sinks. But till it moves its not yet weakness really.

arufox

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Even professional traders hard to predict the Bitcoin price, and you say will drop to 70%. Actually, for me prediction is just words, i don't trust any prediction, my mind is simple HOLD. No matter what happens next just HOLD. Even though I'm a holder, maybe this year i will sell all of my assets

Silberman

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Quote from: doomloop on March 29, 2021, 12:00:09 PM

Quote from: Silberman on March 28, 2021, 07:51:50 PM

Quote from: Clement Kaliyar on March 25, 2021, 06:21:44 PM

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances Cheesy

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Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

But the question is will it happen soon? We know that every single investor in the market wants to earn money that is not news, however if they really believe they are already holding the best possible asset they can possibly hold then why sell? I could believe this scenario could be approaching if we were seeing an amazing economic recovery and fiscal prudence coming from governments, are we seeing that? No, we are seeing the opposite which is what drove those institutional investors here on the first place.

I do believe that government finally handling economy a lot better would be very good for bitcoin because people who do not have money right now to invest into bitcoin will be capable of investing into bitcoin. A good economy means everyone can have some money to invest and they can have excess money for their savings account, this will increase the price of bitcoin for sure.

I do believe that governments screwing up the economy is great for bitcoin as well, we have seen that, because in the end people see that governments are handling economy horribly so they put their money into bitcoin to basically run away and not be in it when fiat gets screwed. In both cases bitcoin is the way to go, people will always pick bitcoin, it doesn't matter how the fiat economy goes, up or down, because in either direction bitcoin will be the choice of the people.

The problem that I see with this theory is that people as long as there are jobs and they can use their currency to buy stuff that they want they do not really care about anything else, bitcoin is not like stocks or any other asset around the world, bitcoin was created because satoshi thought that the current way in which governments are managing their currencies is wrong, if the economy is doing well there is not really any kind of incentive for people or companies to come to this market, and we know this is true because institutional investors have claimed that the reason they bought bitcoin was because they have lost confidence in the dollar.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: ene1980 on March 29, 2021, 06:32:45 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 21, 2021, 07:44:06 PM

All bears need to go backing hibernation until spring of 2022. We will be well above 180k by then and that is when the bears awaken.

Looks like you are confident that the market would rally till the springs of next year and the price moving above $180k which is really crazy considering it has to rally three folds from the current market valuation for the bears to wake up. I wonder what crazy transaction fees we would be shelling out if that is the case. I am not expecting those valuation but i wont be surprised if it rallies according to your dreams Cheesy

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Way too far off to consider on making out some discussions into those level of prices which its really hard for us to consider that we would really be reaching out that level.

Why cant people just stick out with 60k-100k range? We cant just reach out those above without riding off with the waves, seeing that we do even a hard time on breaking this 60k resistance
and struggling.

Patience would be tested because not all would really be having that kind of behavior or qualities. Drops of 70% can really happen but not likely on this time.

Shasha80

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With so many institutions investing in Bitcoin I doubt Bitcoin will drop by 70%, because institutions don't invest in Bitcoin for the short term.
This is what causes Bitcoin fundamentals to be very strong this year, because most institutions invest in Bitcoin for the long term. This means
that Bitcoin must have a very strong support price and will not just drop to 70%. Therefore the correction that occurred a few days ago Bitcoin
only fell to $ 52k. And there is no need to worry that Bitcoin will drop to 70%, my opinion is that Bitcoin will only drop by about 20% if it manages
to touch the price of $ 68,700.

ene1980

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 21, 2021, 07:44:06 PM

All bears need to go backing hibernation until spring of 2022. We will be well above 180k by then and that is when the bears awaken.

Looks like you are confident that the market would rally till the springs of next year and the price moving above $180k which is really crazy considering it has to rally three folds from the current market valuation for the bears to wake up. I wonder what crazy transaction fees we would be shelling out if that is the case. I am not expecting those valuation but i wont be surprised if it rallies according to your dreams Cheesy

.

STT

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Someone I follow made a good point there is a gap at 54k from Fridays main market close. What happens with gap in price often is the price action will retract to fill that gap and create some volume of bids and offers around that price and confirm we are correct to rise from there. Like an air pocket till we fill that area it represents something of a weakness or soft spot, it doesnt have to fill up immediately especially if we are pushing ahead with momentum but eventually these areas will tend to be filled up.

uneng

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A drop can occur anytime, it can take a short or long period to happen. Who knows? All we have are speculations and in fact it's like investors say: you can't predict the future based on what has already happened in the past. What happened before isn't a measurer to say what is going to happen next. To sell big chunks of bitcoin based on these predictions is always a risky deal, because there is a potential chance you are wasting a golden ticket to the moon.

Fortify

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It seems that trying to chart Bitcoin is a rather futile effort and many analysts like to see patterns in historical behavior that have little bearing on what will happen in the future. Very few people really could have know that it would have blown up from $15k a year ago to the $50k range today, but you can be sure that people create charts that could have predicted it in hindsight. The implied bounce here is down to $18k and if we ever saw Bitcoin there again it would be in a state of freefall. What with the massive interest from institutional investors in a fairly static commodity similar to gold, it is likely that even a fall of 25% would see vast amounts bought up and this would reduce any future supply even further. It seems nobody knows the future of this volatile store of value and you could say that is part of the fun of owning it.

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Quote from: Silberman on March 28, 2021, 07:51:50 PM

Quote from: Clement Kaliyar on March 25, 2021, 06:21:44 PM

Quote from: Silberman on March 25, 2021, 12:19:02 AM

however a crash of 70% will require very specific circumstances for it to happen and I simply do not see those circumstances appearing any time soon, for that to happen we would have to be in a market completely filled with greed and making all kind of risky bets and that is not currently the state of the market.

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances Cheesy

.

Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

But the question is will it happen soon? We know that every single investor in the market wants to earn money that is not news, however if they really believe they are already holding the best possible asset they can possibly hold then why sell? I could believe this scenario could be approaching if we were seeing an amazing economic recovery and fiscal prudence coming from governments, are we seeing that? No, we are seeing the opposite which is what drove those institutional investors here on the first place.

Too really deep for us to consider on going back into these price levels where 70% drop isnt something that can be easily seen if we do base up on the current market trend and on people

and companies who had jumped in into this market and basing off with this level of adoption or recognition then crashing the price as bad of that percentage is unlikely to happen.

There are lots of strong supports below where people could potentially for them to buyback once the price had fallen into that point.We can reach up height but we wont be needing
these kind of extent when it comes to correction.

doomloop

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Quote from: Silberman on March 28, 2021, 07:51:50 PM

Quote from: Clement Kaliyar on March 25, 2021, 06:21:44 PM

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances Cheesy

.

Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

But the question is will it happen soon? We know that every single investor in the market wants to earn money that is not news, however if they really believe they are already holding the best possible asset they can possibly hold then why sell? I could believe this scenario could be approaching if we were seeing an amazing economic recovery and fiscal prudence coming from governments, are we seeing that? No, we are seeing the opposite which is what drove those institutional investors here on the first place.

I do believe that government finally handling economy a lot better would be very good for bitcoin because people who do not have money right now to invest into bitcoin will be capable of investing into bitcoin. A good economy means everyone can have some money to invest and they can have excess money for their savings account, this will increase the price of bitcoin for sure.

I do believe that governments screwing up the economy is great for bitcoin as well, we have seen that, because in the end people see that governments are handling economy horribly so they put their money into bitcoin to basically run away and not be in it when fiat gets screwed. In both cases bitcoin is the way to go, people will always pick bitcoin, it doesn't matter how the fiat economy goes, up or down, because in either direction bitcoin will be the choice of the people.

Silberman

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Quote from: Clement Kaliyar on March 25, 2021, 06:21:44 PM

Quote from: Silberman on March 25, 2021, 12:19:02 AM

however a crash of 70% will require very specific circumstances for it to happen and I simply do not see those circumstances appearing any time soon, for that to happen we would have to be in a market completely filled with greed and making all kind of risky bets and that is not currently the state of the market.

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances Cheesy

.

Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

But the question is will it happen soon? We know that every single investor in the market wants to earn money that is not news, however if they really believe they are already holding the best possible asset they can possibly hold then why sell? I could believe this scenario could be approaching if we were seeing an amazing economic recovery and fiscal prudence coming from governments, are we seeing that? No, we are seeing the opposite which is what drove those institutional investors here on the first place.

Quidat

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Quote from: Untomabur on March 25, 2021, 05:52:24 PM

currently, the price of bitcoin has dropped by more than 7% friends, and maybe it will fall even further if the $ 50000 support can't survive, buy gradually is recommended at this level, but you have to put a stop loss so you don't get hit by Rekt, or wait until bitcoin price indicates that this support is strong

Then how you would see those indications for it to be the support or possible bottom?If you are just basing with some hunches or self intuition then it would neither be giving out two possible situations or results.
70% is less likely to happen but we know that everything could really happen into this market because we have seen those worst moments in the past and we cant just cross out those kind of probabilities
for it to happen so you should prepare yourself on things that might really happen ahead.70% drop might be seen as an opportunity but most people would already have the hesitance on making
investment on that time because impressions for bitcoin to be dead would really be there.

Clement Kaliyar

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Quote from: Silberman on March 25, 2021, 12:19:02 AM

We all know that a crash is always a possibility, in fact we have seen the support level at 53k has been broken which may indicate and even more important downward movement during the next days,

Anyone who sold all of their holdings will be waiting for that moment where they could once again purchase the coins and even though a crash in inevitable we have no idea how much low it will go.

Quote from: Silberman on March 25, 2021, 12:19:02 AM

however a crash of 70% will require very specific circumstances for it to happen and I simply do not see those circumstances appearing any time soon, for that to happen we would have to be in a market completely filled with greed and making all kind of risky bets and that is not currently the state of the market.

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances Cheesy

.

Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

Untomabur

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currently, the price of bitcoin has dropped by more than 7% friends, and maybe it will fall even further if the $ 50000 support can't survive, buy gradually is recommended at this level, but you have to put a stop loss so you don't get hit by Rekt, or wait until bitcoin price indicates that this support is strong

Silberman

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Quote from: Argoo on March 22, 2021, 12:28:44 AM

Quote from: leea-1334 on March 15, 2021, 04:44:29 AM

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

Many have already sold their bitcoins at the current high price and are eagerly awaiting its next big price drop. In all likelihood, such a drop will happen sometime, but it is absolutely not necessary that it will again be so significant, as much as 70 percent. Although we see that the cryptocurrency is developing cyclically, however, this accuracy also does not occur. This time, I do not expect such a significant price drop, as the structure of investors has changed. These are no longer small weak hands, now large business structures have entered the cryptocurrency market and they have calculated in advance when and at what price they will need to exit this market and how they will do it.

We all know that a crash is always a possibility, in fact we have seen the support level at 53k has been broken which may indicate and even more important downward movement during the next days, however a crash of 70% will require very specific circumstances for it to happen and I simply do not see those circumstances appearing any time soon, for that to happen we would have to be in a market completely filled with greed and making all kind of risky bets and that is not currently the state of the market.

Argoo

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Quote from: leea-1334 on March 15, 2021, 04:44:29 AM

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

Many have already sold their bitcoins at the current high price and are eagerly awaiting its next big price drop. In all likelihood, such a drop will happen sometime, but it is absolutely not necessary that it will again be so significant, as much as 70 percent. Although we see that the cryptocurrency is developing cyclically, however, this accuracy also does not occur. This time, I do not expect such a significant price drop, as the structure of investors has changed. These are no longer small weak hands, now large business structures have entered the cryptocurrency market and they have calculated in advance when and at what price they will need to exit this market and how they will do it.

Silberman

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Quote from: btc_angela on March 21, 2021, 04:51:03 PM

Quote from: Silberman on March 18, 2021, 07:51:26 PM

Quote from: leea-1334 on March 15, 2021, 04:44:29 AM

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

As far as I remember that has never happened, meaning the absolute floor of this new bull run should be 20k, which means that at most the price can crash roughly 67% from its all time high of 61k, so the prediction on the OP is basically the absolute worst scenario that we could reach, but as I have said with the institutional investors now on the market and with no intention to sell and being way stronger than the weak hands we got in the past I think that at most a crash of 50% is the worst case scenario that we could watch.

Correct, worst scenario, but I don't see it happening in this kind of bullish phase. We have super fast rally, then some correction and then the price started to pick up again. I even don't see bitcoin hitting $40k again as investors are buying at every dip that they've seen. Just today we have a minor correction, -5%, but now the market has regain some, just down to -1%. So in less than 12 hours, it has bounce back already and could be hitting $58k-$59k anytime.

I think the same, a crash to 20k scares a lot of people but that is the worst that it can happen and I do not think it is very likely it will, to me there is an important possibility that we are going to remain on the current levels during the next months and we do not begin to see even more growth until the beginning of the summer, after all it has been known for a long time the first quarter of the year is for the most part the weakest of the four for bitcoin.

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Quote from: jerrison on March 02, 2021, 03:47:38 AM

I have been in the crypto space long enough to understand that the technical analysis is applicable to all trading activities but more than the technical analysis is the fundamental analysis that will tell you a tale of surprises when the global events and occurrences play out. With the likes of Grayscale and Microstrategy playing out in this space, reducing the available floating circulation of bitcoin and converting a significant amount of their financial balance sheet to Bitcoin, there is no doubt that the price of bitcoin might not play by the rules of technical analysis.The bulls are in the market and they didn't come to play games with their reserves as bitcoin has also been known as a store of value and not just a just a medium of exchange.

I like this statement especially the fact that people are obviously focusing more on the Technical side of it that they have forgotten that there is also Fundamental that may affect the price of Bitcoin.

Like what this said, there are some big companies continuously accumulating more and more Bitcoin on a daily basis. The companies like MicroStrategy, Grayscale or even Tesla in the future are the ones that may trigger the biggest dump that may happen anytime soon since they are holding huge chunks of money. If that happen, TA will definitely be useless.

With what the OP has posted, I might agree that this scenario might come true only if these companies will dump their Bitcoin. A 70% drop isn't a rare scenario already since we've already saw it happen multiples times through the 12 years the Bitcoin has exist so I will not be surprised if this will happen though right now, the chances of it is low. There is still no sign of a trend reversal as of now but I'm having a feeling that in the next months, it will start to show some signs of reversal. Cheesy

Topic: A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700 (Read 839 times)