Topic: A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700 - page 2. (Read 839 times)

blah 70% drop blah blah blah.

The reality is we have only just begun to rally. I see 65k then 77k then a slow upwards sidewinder move up and beyond 100 k by the 4th of July 2021

All bears need to go backing hibernation until spring of 2022. We will be well above 180k by then and that is when the bears awaken.

We are still in bullish and people's mind side is trying to buy more and more in this season it's is impossible for Bitcoin to drop to 20K again. But based on data in 2017 after long bullish will become the long bearish it's mean Bitcoin will dump massive. The question how dip?? 20K? I'm not sure about that

Correct, worst scenario, but I don't see it happening in this kind of bullish phase. We have super fast rally, then some correction and then the price started to pick up again. I even don't see bitcoin hitting $40k again as investors are buying at every dip that they've seen. Just today we have a minor correction, -5%, but now the market has regain some, just down to -1%. So in less than 12 hours, it has bounce back already and could be hitting $58k-$59k anytime.

Well, you guys are both right but also wrong. Speculation is wrong and should not be done, do not feel emotions and get panic and sell your coins, you are right about that part, but TA is not bullshit, I do not use TA neither when I buy because I have one thing that I do which is buying, no matter what bitcoin price is, 3k or 300k I will buy bitcoin and that is why I do not need TA for that, but I understand others who does TA, there is a logic behind it, it just shows the market sentiment and there is nothing wrong with knowing that.

I am not saying that TA will make you money or lose you money, all I am saying that it shows something and there is nothing wrong with looking at that, this is why I honestly believe that we should be not using only TA for trading and nothing else, but we should not be against others who use it neither. At the end of the day, everyone has their own methods of making money.

As far as I remember that has never happened, meaning the absolute floor of this new bull run should be 20k, which means that at most the price can crash roughly 67% from its all time high of 61k, so the prediction on the OP is basically the absolute worst scenario that we could reach, but as I have said with the institutional investors now on the market and with no intention to sell and being way stronger than the weak hands we got in the past I think that at most a crash of 50% is the worst case scenario that we could watch.

I see the same possibility, it could be 100k in a month and it could be 10k in a year, who knows what could happen with bitcoin? I do believe that we are still in a bull, sure there was a bad news today and the price went low a bit but that doesn't change the fact that we are still in a bull run, specially with these huge companies involved in bitcoin we will not see too much drop anymore, even if all the market gets together and starts selling, these huge companies can see this as a profitable deal and buy from discounted price and increase it.

That is why I think it is quite obvious that we are not going to see 10k price anymore, and maybe 30k could happen again, maybe slightly a bit under, but I doubt even 20k is possible anymore. I prepared myself for a drop like that and I think I can handle all the drops and wait for the price so I am feeling confident and not selling them yet.

Precisely! it's pure stupidity since after you believe and support then you question your assesment?

You'll  not succeed in any investment platforms if you have such kind of mentalities. If you are easy

to move by trends and other's opinion. It's very important to work with your own success, acceptance

if you failed and willingness to move forward and take another try.

The truth is, I just don't want to say this a foolishness. People are deceiving themselves by constantly losing faith in what they were hoping for, isn't it stupid? If this is the case, I am sure they will never be able to profit from this market.

This is the basic hypothesis, it can still happen, but in my opinion this rate is not much.  We all know the cryptocurrency market and lead by bitcoin has always been dominated and constrained by so many factors, most importantly government, regulation.  That keeps me ready and alert to maintain my strategies in special situations.  But with bitcoin's growth this year, it looks exceptional, and in the 1 trillion-fueled asset space, confidence is skyrocketing.  I think under normal conditions, there wouldn't be such a 70% escape.  It will be maintained high by the bulls.

BS for those people who have used up technicals but still end up on being a failure on high ratio but actually if its done correctly and carefully then i dont see for it to be BS.

This is much more better rather than on making trades without any analysis or basis which would really be ending up your trading to be just a guessing game.

70% drop? Everything is possible but in other side of things where we do try to check out the level of adoption compared back into the past then we can make out
presumptions that it is really a hard thing to believe on but hey, you should always be prepared.

When TA is based on good maths and science, then it is not BS, which is why I have confirmed that at least a 70% drop is underway. It's just math.

Not all technical analysis will function properly to predict the price, sometime fundamental analysis will also be of great help to holder to receive a surprise for the bitcoin they have stored for a long time. Someone has asked me personally about how I think about bitcoin after hitting the current new ATH. I certainly consider the support of institutional investor who have deposite large reserves of their money in bitcoin and me told him that bitcoin would no longer fall at a price of $ 30K. Institutional investors' confidence in bitcoin is growing and they seem to be competing to enter and invest in it. Apart from all that, we also can't guarantee that the price of bitcoin will last like this if institutional investor start to attract and secure their profit in fiat.

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

I agree even though Bitcoin is volatile at times, its not dropping this much without giving many opportunities to exit at various prices if wanted.   What will happen if -70% peak to trough were to occur would be a cycle, repeated waves up and down and a notable failure to beat the previous high registered in those waves.   You would get alot of chances to sell at the higher prices rather then being forced to sell at the lowest prices during a month, people forced to sell are usually leveraged or forcing themselves via a panic response.
   Avoid putting yourself into a place of panic and hype and it will benefit you more overall, Bitcoin has been a marathon in its nature not a sprint despite the appearance of rapid gains really the best profit was accumulated between years.   Very few of us can trade perfectly and spot tops, Iam one of the more bearish people on this forum while still being net long overall but I would not say with any certainty we have put in a high for the year.   The effects of weak currency make price accuracy really far more unknown but also high prices are far easier now then they would have been five years ago with less QE performed or higher bond rates and other factors.
  Obviously Bitcoin itself as a market and and a protocol has come some way also and every week month year we gain more people involved I hope this continues but it will take time and almost always price gets ahead of the base line progression so we must pullback to stay within reasonable grounds imo.   That outlook keeps me positive even if we were to pull back to 20k plus I know markets just arent the perfect solid clock people think they are, sometimes the price will wave up and down purely in reaction not a stable reading.

What I have seen so far, from early 2017, basically everything can happen in BTCUSD. It can be at an ATH and 2 Monty later be at -90% from that ATH again. Me personally I do quick day trades and have a hodl wallet. everything in between is more gambling to me

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

We should learned from the past and keep our investment to a better place.

We all know that in anyhow this bearish market might happened again, like how it went way back 2017. But with institutional investors that now flowing around there's much a higher chance that correction may not go that low or if in case if does, those investors are willing to take that and carry it back.

Correct, which is exactly why I'm talking about the likelihood of something happening, the massive drop that we saw in the crash of 2017 happened in a market that was completely different than the one that we have now, the market was not anywhere near as solid as it is now, institutional investors most likely are not going to let something like that happen which is why I do not really believe that the prediction of a crash that is so big will actually come to happen.

Predictions are predictions. We do not know if that prediction will happen or not, but if we can prepare for the drops, we do not have to worry because we can use that time to our benefit if that happens. That will be a good time to buy as much bitcoin as possible, especially if the bitcoin price drops a lot. We already see how high the bitcoin price increase, but we do not know how deep the price can drop, so if we can sell some bitcoin at the peak, we can buy back that amount when the price is down.