There will likely be a big drop and it will happen after price goes parabolic from everybody FOMOing into the market at an unsustainable rate and risking too much and therefore they will panic sell when they see money they couldn't afford to risk plummeting in value.
$68.7k is literally only $10k above the price we've already hit. There is nothing remotely parabolic about going $10k higher from a level where we just had a correction.
Price will go higher that that before the next correction, let lone before the year's peak. Peak price before a big sustained drop will be FAR higher than prices we've seen.
It takes time to build up unsustainable price action. History would suggest the rally will continue some ways into the second half of the year, we are only in the beginning of the 3rd month of the year....we likely have half a year or more left in this rally.
The more corrections we have the higher the price can go. Corrections are healthy and allow market participants to feel comfortable that the price chart doesn't look unsustainably parabolic. The fact that we've had two corrections in the past two months means the market looks extremely healthy right now, despite the fact that it is over 5x up in the past five months.
Most institutions are buying for the long term. Some will, and some already have, panic sell. Some will sell to take profit occasionally and try to get back in lower. Some have rules about % exposure of their portfolio so they sell gains and can't buy more, thus they continually get less and less after gaining exposure as the price rises. But most are buying to protect long term against inflation or to hold long term as they've seen the hodl strategy has been the best strategy from a risk/reward perspective.
Therefore institutions will have a stabilizing effect on the price. They won't FOMO in hard at unsustainable prices like retail investors do, and therefore they could extend the bull market by refusing to buy every time price has shot up too quickly. But they are making long term investments so they will buy in at good prices when they see dips. Both these things mean plentiful but short (a few weeks) corrections, thereby keeping the bull run healthy and sustainable. Because they are mostly long term hodlers, they are less likely to panic sell everything in a crash the way most of the new retail market participants do after a bull run ends. These means less likely to be a year long 80% crash and less likely to take three years to move through a crypto winter from peak to getting back to that peak.
Also because we are just at the start of institutions adoption and most of them will start by taking small positions over time, and as more enter the space that means more and more will later on decide to enter when right now most are not entering, all these means institutional adoption will takes years of gradually building positions and coming into the market. That is another reason why a prolonged and steep crypto winter is unlikely after whenever we do get this post-halving peak.
All this leads logically to two main ideas:
- This bull run has MUCH further to run and will last for a bunch more months. At minimum it should go significantly over $100k.
- We should maybe expect more like a 50% or 60% drop once a peak is reached, and shouldn't expect a drawn out bear market. Perhaps something like a a 12-18 month period from peak to getting back to peak, rather than three years, as institutional adoption continues and they jump at the opportunity to get in cheap. Basically, if there is a big peak this year, next year's higher price may be lower than that, but next year price will likely start coming back up, and 2023's highest price will likely be higher than this years, and market will continue moving up from there.
And for all your saying $100k by end of year...uhh yeah we're already in the $50k's and about to push higher this month, $100k will happen but it'll happen no later than this summer, and we could certainly hit $100k for the first time this Spring. By end of year if bull run is still going on price will probably be $200k or higher. My guess though would be a peak price in early Fall around $150k give or take a few tens of thousands, and then by end of year and for maybe first half of next year we'll be back under $100k, though perhaps not even falling to current $50k price levels, and be moving back up by second half of next year.
