Topic: A better BTC buy-sell strategy (Read 86 times)

I would not rely too much on the cycles. I'm in a minority position here in the forum with this opinion, but you should at least consider the possibility that Bitcoin's price doesn't follow the patterns of earlier years.

At least my stance is that there is no hard rule that the cycles will last around four years.

Reasons for this opinion:

1) there were only two complete 4 year cycles (2013-17 and 2017-21), but before those, Bitcoin had a quite clear 2-year cycle (2011-13). 2:1 is a quite thin evidence. If the top of the current cycle happens to be in 2025 (we don't know it) then of course we might have better evidence but still the options "2024 top" and "top after 2025" are still on the table.
2) there were intermediate bull runs in 2019 and 2013 which were almost as strong as one of the "canonical" bull markets, i.e. the price at least made a x4 and then fell again by more than 70%:
  In 2019
3) Miners are not too relevant as Bitcoin sellers (only 0,1-0,3% of the daily BTC sell volume is miner driven) so the popular "post-halving pump theory" is also quite weak, demand fluctuations almost for sure are more important.
4) The current bullish movement "looks" like "from the books of the 4-year cycle theory", but is primarily news-driven (US election).

So if your three options are the only ones you would consider, then I would favour option 3. However the DCA strategy mentioned by others is even better.

And my recommendation is to take note of the "attention economy" surrounding Bitcoin. There are clearly phases with positive sentiment (like now, but also during the second half of 2023 and the first 3 months of 2024), and other ones with negative sentiment. It's best to buy when everybody is thinking Bitcoin is dead while the other indicators are okay, i.e. if the price is low despite of no fundamental reasons for a Bitcoin crash.

A quite interesting strategy is also this one to improve on the DCA strategy.

All of these options can of course fail. Thus this is no investment advice.

With Bitcoin, if you can hold it, you can get rich. If you can hold your bitcoin longer time, like three more cycles, you can get bigger profit. With past cycles, Bitcoin always makes new all time highs with new Bitcoin block reward halvings and new cycles, so if you can hold your bitcoin through more cycles, you get bigger profit.

Case Bitcoin (useful)

When you want to take profit or plan your withdrawal, you can refer to a withdrawal strategy built up by JayJuanGee and bitmover.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy

I think having a continuous approach in buying is obviously the most profitable strategy for 8 years. But all are not in the same place.

So, the very basic call is to get into Bitcoin while in the bear market. Sleep and wait until it matures during the next cycle of bull run.

It sounds hard to do so but when you're used to it, you're printing cash for yourself every 4 years with consistency.

It's always been this strategy for me, start of the bear market, accumulate, do DCA, has the mentally to do it. Because there will be times that you will have to question whether what you are doing is right, so just remember to look at the bigger picture, you can't connect the dots early. So just go along and try to accumulate as much as you can in the bear market. You will be tested that's for sure. But if others can do it, then why not you?


Hard to say, we need someone to really compute and have the data. But I guess the thing is that we really have to think of how are we going to make profits after that long bear market. That's why for me, just buying and holding for one cycle is already enough. Realized profits at the end is very satisfying.

It's not a bad option when doing option 2 and also option 3. Why?, if you did the option 3 and did get the capital that you spend then leaving the profit or a portion for the next circle won't be a good choice to make since you already earned a profit and got your capital back so it won't be a loss in that case. Selling all of the profit to DCA is also a good choice I think since you only spend the profit that you have gained this bull season.

I have been using the number 2 option of yours, pretty much stack up everything prior to the pandemic, and then it's easy to save during the pandemic because obviously, you can't go out and so that's one advantage for me during that lockdown. And then I sold all early 2021 to buy something big from my profits.

And after that, I just take a break from buying in the next 3 months and then after that, I started to collect, sell some during emergencies, but still continue up to this day to save and accumulate.

However, I'm thinking as well with option 3 for next year's biggest bull-run, I might just sold 50% of what I might accumulate till next year and not sell everything. And then the cycle starts again, continue to accumulate in bear market, and then let's see how it goes in the next bull run.

This strategy is definitely attractive because it can boost profits while keeping things simple. It’s a different game compared to HODLing, which usually requires patience for years. Bull runs, on the other hand, happen in shorter intervals, so you need to be more proactive.

Awareness, this is what we need.. recognizing that the market moves in cycles and taking advantage of those patterns. It’s a repetitive strategy, but as long as you stay tuned to the market’s behavior, you can maximize opportunities without overcomplicating things.

take at look at this data, it might be helpful.

https://www.techopedia.com/crypto-bull-run-history.

Well if you ask me I'll go with the first option for hodling for two cycles of the halving. Now before this recent pump in bitcoin's price, many people would go for the option that says hodling for one cycle. However let's do a little math. Before the halving just before this current one we are experiencing it's effect ( more like the previous halving literally around periods of 2020) we were actually floating around 4 digits $8k+ and just over a span of around 4 years we are already 97k+ and Still pushing.

If we should calculate the effect in the next 4 years based on the stats of this last four years then we would likely be floating around $180k+ . If you check some people HODL with time in mind and not cycles so once they reach a tagged price they sell off and re buy when we experience a pullback.

The first option is the less risky option and for anyone not looking to risk or play the pump and the dump game it is better they stick to it, the number two option is the most profitable if the trend follow the predicted pattern base on the historical chart but it is the most risky of the three options. Reason been that even though history shows that there is a dump after every bull run there is certainly no guarantee that it will work out all the time, imagine selling bitcoin at $100k and the price pumps above it and never get to that point again or even below it then it is more like a loss, even though it is not looking realistic there is still an option of it happening.

The third option is just simply playing the safe hands which balances both the first and the second option and I’m
Terms of doubt is the better option but will recommend holding all to eliminate any possible risk, although if you can play the game well selling high and buying low is the best strategy

It’s much easier if you keep buying and buying while setting a target to sell 50% at a very high profit and hold the remaining 50% for a true HODL strategy. It all comes down to timing, and since everyone has their own goals, either strategy could work for an investor. The simpler, the better.. but what’s most important is having a clear target, as that makes the process much easier.

At the current stage, simply holding might not earn you as much profit since Bitcoin has already reached close to $100k. The room for growth isn’t as big compared to when the price was still $1,000. It’s worth considering this kind of factor when setting your target to keep things realistic.

I know a lot of persons would say that the longer you wait the more profits you get which is true but it's no easy job to hold that long especially when you know the ROI have increased significantly so I would say selling 50% in one circle and leave 50% to continue staking up and the reason being personal in the fact that seeing my portfolio all empty would really make my savings impossible again and plus no ever would ever know the actual Dip or bull limit.

Let's say only the rich waits for 2 circles. They have other sources of income and not in any need of their BTC investment (capital nor profit). But in theory, around here in the forum, you could see a random advice to hodl for 8 to 10 years. This seems unrealistic in practice while it could easily be dished out as an advice.

This is also what I have done and what I plan on doing continuously. I think waiting for 2 circles is quite too long for me. I have already waited a lot for one circle, I would want to reap my rewards and do something productive or profitable with the money I will earn from the profits from the bull run.

I prefer to buy and hold bitcoin for only one circle, sell all during the bull run when the price has already increased significantly and wait for the next circle to buy again. I will buy when the bear market has been very significant. But it is hard to know the bottom, so I DCA during the time especially if the price hit bottom much further.

Just as the title suggests, which is a better method of bitcoin investment. I will appreciate an in-depth explanation with relatable historical data.

1. Buying and hodling BTC for two circles (two bear and two, 8 years).
2. Buying and hodling BTC for only one circle, sell all during the bull run and wait for the next circle to buy again.
3. Buying and hodling BTC for one circle, sell 50% during bull run and leave 50% to continue investment in the next circle?

Which will give a better profit within 8 years.