Topic: A better BTC buy-sell strategy - page 4. (Read 948 times)

If you ask which will give better profit in 8 years then the answer is obviously the 2nd one.
But on the other hand, timing the market is not piece of a cake and so the better strategy would be 3rd one.
Holding and selling 50% in the bull run while holding the rest and then buy back in a bear market from the profits.

I preferred this option but with modified 70% take profit and 30% Moon bag holdings just in case Bitcoin price never went below to my initial selling price despite the cycle is already over.

Taking profit the majority of your holding is the best choice since you can’t guarantee if the price will continue or not while you have the chance already to secure profit which is your main goal for investing on Bitcoin.

Just make sure to leave something for holding so that you can still benefits on the pump in case the uptrend continue while you can still have profit of the trend already ended after your first sell.

I do prefer buying after the bull market we know people again become back to neutral, There is no hype, just being lowkey now as you can accumulate coin as possible and now well it takes another 4 years again so its a very long time it takes a lot of things happen in the market and even in the society that might affect like the things happen with the covid. If you have a chance to buy bitcoin again with the price of below 50k still its a very good opportunity to us to buy because we know bitcoin price get into 90k and now every ATH of it beats previous record so even we didn't see 100k right now still there's a chance next bull run.

I earlier created this thread [Strategy of Dr.Bitcoin_Strange] BITCOIN'S SELL TO BUY MORE STRATEGY some months ago, I did implement it and it works but perhaps not every love to sell, some people have the money to continue buying more till they have hold up to the number of years they intended to hold it. You can read through the thread.

The best is buy bitcoin during bear market, holding and during bull run you sell off and take your profits, then next bear run you buy and hold during bull run you as well sell off and wait for the bear run so that you can also make enough profits. But then the disadvantage is that you might not succeeded having the same balance which you had before for instance; you bought bitcoin worth of $1,000 when price was $30k per bitcoin and sold when price hits $60k then you were planning of waiting for the price to drop back to $30k again and the price didn't pull back maybe you ended up buy bitcoin worth of $1k at the price of $45k per bitcoin. In this you have lost some fraction of bitcoin.

Putting into mathematical expression:-
Bitcoin worth $1k at the price of $30k is about ~ 0.0334BTC
While bitcoin worth $1k at the price of $45k is ~ 0.0223BTC

Therefore; 0.0334-0.0223 = 0.0111BTC as lost for buying/selling in the next bull/bear run.

But if we compute this into long term holding like 8-12 years time you would see the profits would be so massive, this depending on the individual capacity to hold for long without sell off their bitcoin.

Investment $1k of 0.0334BTC at $30k to the present would worth not more than $3,293
That is to say that long term investment is still more profitable than holding for short term or selling/buying at every giving bull/bear run.

For personal choice, they can use number 3 which sell for 50% during bull run and leave 50% and continue investing for the next cycle.
Profit from the last bull run can be enough to increase their Bitcoin amount plus they can use DCA method to buy Bitcoin constantly and hold for one cycle or more. That will depend on their plan because each person will choose what they feel comfortable for them.

But they can hold for two cycles and sell all Bitcoin during the bull run. That can give them a big profit but they must have a strong hand to hold Bitcoin for 8 years.

I don't think that hodli bitcoin for two circles and above is difficult for everybody, because it depends on your mindset of what you plan to do with your bitcoin that you are buying. Everybody have their own intentions and their own reasons for investing in bitcoin. I think most of us don't visit the WO thread, where OGs with golden hands are, and they have being holding for long. If you don't depend on your bitcoin investment and you have a good source of income, it's easy. After all we save in the bank for a very long time, like 4 years and above to achieve our goal. The longer you hodli, the higher your profits overtime. I will go for option one, because MicroStrategy is my mentor.

For me I would say it depends on each person and how they program their buy and sell time. Buying and selling bitcoin to make profit does not necessarily mean it must be within the axis of 8years. Most people preferably chose long term HODLing and selling it after 3 to 4 circle which is about 12 to 16 years and above. But for the short term HODLers they can sell using any of the strategy from 1 to 3 options you provided.

I would choose the third option because I have no courage to choose the second option.

If you're good in trading, you can earn more than all the options you mentioned above.

Technically it's still profitable than DCA.

You don't have to really predict the peak and the bottom, as long as you're sell high and buy low, you will outperform people who DCA-ing Bitcoin. When someone have DCA-ing Bitcoin, at some point you will your coins too and you also not able to know the peak.

I prefer the second method to maximize profit but we don't know until when BTC gonna consistently have cyclical period like this where there's bullish season and there's bearish season.
once adoption grows large I expect such thing to be a lot more irrelevant and BTC will just be up only with occasional small retracement but nothing meaningful to be considered as bearish.

but yeah, seeing the price action so far I think 2nd method yields larger result but one thing you need to consider is you may find it difficult to find bottom and tops. therefore you can pretty well selling when BTC can still go up more than double and buying when it can still go down.

The most profitable is the second option. In every cycle, there's the ATH and the bottom. If you sell everything during the ATH and buy back during the bottom, you'd have the best profit.

But you can't always be accurate in timing the market. It's not as if the cycles are exact copies of each other. It's only predictable and easy in hindsight, when you're looking at past charts. But when you're trying to predict the future, you'd find it hard.

Like today, how do you see things would turn out in the near future? Would you wait for $100,000 before selling or you have a higher target? $110,000? $120,000? If the price corrects all the way to $90,000 before even hitting $100,000, would you sell or wait for the rebound? If instead of recovery, the price goes down to $85,000? Would you sell or still wait?

My point is, just buy and hodl and add more Sats every time you have extra funds. The safest option on the list is the 3rd, by the way.

4. Buy and hoard BTC, sell X0% during a bull run and hoard remaining. then use the received fiat to buy at the correction to increase hoard
#buy-low-sell-high-repeat
#dont-sell-all-hoard

..
no one can know the true max a market can peak at nor the true correction new bottom
so instead of picking a number and selling all 50% you can try selling 30% at your picked number. and if the price then continues to go up you can sell another 10-20%.. and the same in reverse during the correction.

EG
if you plan to sell 50% at $150k, try 30% and then set a option to sell 1% per $7k rise. meaning if it gets to $220k you sold 40% in total. if it reached $290k you sold 50% and maximised opportunity whilst still only selling 50% and sticking to the never sell all hoard rule

then if you think the $150k-$290k would then correct down to $80k buy 30% at $80k but then have a 1% buy at every $1k amount below $80k, so if it corrected down to $60k you would have used all that fiat to buy more coin than pre-sell

So far I am still on option number one and have held bitcoin for two rounds or two missed cycles, and it does require high patience. Because it is not easy to wait for two rounds or 8 years that I will soon reach, and there is always temptation when bitcoin reaches a new high and this is an experience and also about what I think is extraordinary because when I really need it and I try not to be tempted and look for other alternatives so as not to touch it.

And I have a plan to take option number three if bitcoin reaches a new ATH at the end of the second round after 8 years, because I think this is the right time to be able to enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin that I have maintained well for two rounds. Taking a profit of 50% so that I can enjoy and realize what I want and save 50% and continue DCA as I did before which may be longer around 10-12 years or more, because for the next 10 years it is likely that the time when I may not work anymore.

I would not rely too much on the cycles. I'm in a minority position here in the forum with this opinion, but you should at least consider the possibility that Bitcoin's price doesn't follow the patterns of earlier years.

At least my stance is that there is no hard rule that the cycles will last around four years.

Reasons for this opinion:

1) there were only two complete 4 year cycles (2013-17 and 2017-21), but before those, Bitcoin had a quite clear 2-year cycle (2011-13). 2:1 is a quite thin evidence. If the top of the current cycle happens to be in 2025 (we don't know it) then of course we might have better evidence but still the options "2024 top" and "top after 2025" are still on the table.
2) there were intermediate bull runs in 2019 and 2013 which were almost as strong as one of the "canonical" bull markets, i.e. the price at least made a x4 and then fell again by more than 70%:
  In 2019
3) Miners are not too relevant as Bitcoin sellers (only 0,1-0,3% of the daily BTC sell volume is miner driven) so the popular "post-halving pump theory" is also quite weak, demand fluctuations almost for sure are more important.
4) The current bullish movement "looks" like "from the books of the 4-year cycle theory", but is primarily news-driven (US election).

So if your three options are the only ones you would consider, then I would favour option 3. However the DCA strategy mentioned by others is even better.

And my recommendation is to take note of the "attention economy" surrounding Bitcoin. There are clearly phases with positive sentiment (like now, but also during the second half of 2023 and the first 3 months of 2024), and other ones with negative sentiment. It's best to buy when everybody is thinking Bitcoin is dead while the other indicators are okay, i.e. if the price is low despite of no fundamental reasons for a Bitcoin crash.

A quite interesting strategy is also this one to improve on the DCA strategy.

All of these options can of course fail. Thus this is no investment advice.

With Bitcoin, if you can hold it, you can get rich. If you can hold your bitcoin longer time, like three more cycles, you can get bigger profit. With past cycles, Bitcoin always makes new all time highs with new Bitcoin block reward halvings and new cycles, so if you can hold your bitcoin through more cycles, you get bigger profit.

Case Bitcoin (useful)

When you want to take profit or plan your withdrawal, you can refer to a withdrawal strategy built up by JayJuanGee and bitmover.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy

I think having a continuous approach in buying is obviously the most profitable strategy for 8 years. But all are not in the same place.

So, the very basic call is to get into Bitcoin while in the bear market. Sleep and wait until it matures during the next cycle of bull run.

It sounds hard to do so but when you're used to it, you're printing cash for yourself every 4 years with consistency.

It's always been this strategy for me, start of the bear market, accumulate, do DCA, has the mentally to do it. Because there will be times that you will have to question whether what you are doing is right, so just remember to look at the bigger picture, you can't connect the dots early. So just go along and try to accumulate as much as you can in the bear market. You will be tested that's for sure. But if others can do it, then why not you?


Hard to say, we need someone to really compute and have the data. But I guess the thing is that we really have to think of how are we going to make profits after that long bear market. That's why for me, just buying and holding for one cycle is already enough. Realized profits at the end is very satisfying.

It's not a bad option when doing option 2 and also option 3. Why?, if you did the option 3 and did get the capital that you spend then leaving the profit or a portion for the next circle won't be a good choice to make since you already earned a profit and got your capital back so it won't be a loss in that case. Selling all of the profit to DCA is also a good choice I think since you only spend the profit that you have gained this bull season.

I have been using the number 2 option of yours, pretty much stack up everything prior to the pandemic, and then it's easy to save during the pandemic because obviously, you can't go out and so that's one advantage for me during that lockdown. And then I sold all early 2021 to buy something big from my profits.

And after that, I just take a break from buying in the next 3 months and then after that, I started to collect, sell some during emergencies, but still continue up to this day to save and accumulate.

However, I'm thinking as well with option 3 for next year's biggest bull-run, I might just sold 50% of what I might accumulate till next year and not sell everything. And then the cycle starts again, continue to accumulate in bear market, and then let's see how it goes in the next bull run.

This strategy is definitely attractive because it can boost profits while keeping things simple. It’s a different game compared to HODLing, which usually requires patience for years. Bull runs, on the other hand, happen in shorter intervals, so you need to be more proactive.

Awareness, this is what we need.. recognizing that the market moves in cycles and taking advantage of those patterns. It’s a repetitive strategy, but as long as you stay tuned to the market’s behavior, you can maximize opportunities without overcomplicating things.

take at look at this data, it might be helpful.

https://www.techopedia.com/crypto-bull-run-history.