Topic: A word of caution to those who have bought recently - page 2. (Read 4705 times)

I don't feel as sorry for them as I do the younger generation.   People who have lived their entire lives under a lie of unfunded entitlements aren't suddenly at age 60, 70, 85 going to say "oh well guess I need to get back to work it is the fair thing to do".  No they are going to use their considerable power as a voting block to ensure they keep as much of what was promised.  The consequences to the overall economy, the future of the country, and the quality of the life for the next generation be damned.

I almost feel sorry for them. Not long now before they realize that their ponzi scheme is going to implode.

Most old people don't have any real wealth to invest. Their retirement plan is to have the government pillage the younger generations.

Until someone publishes a grandma-easy Bitcoin client that makes secure backups, most old people with money won't know how to invest.

The more that people think Bitcoin will go up, the less likely they are to sell now, and the price goes up.

the price nearly tripled

a 300% gain

From June to Sep, the price nearly tripled without any significant fundamental news(unless i missed something).
Then pirate defaulted and there was a spike down to $7+, which was readily absorbed and price has slowly creeped back up to where it is now(14+).

Yes, i know Wordpress started accepting BTC recently and Bitcoin is going to be gaining exposure at CES. More businesses are accepting bitcoin, all well and good.
But a 300% gain(all before Wordpress and CES news) just smells fishy to me.

What i think:
A 300% price gain in 3+ months without any significant fundamental reason is the work of 1 large buyer.
1) Maybe this buyer heard of bitcoin, did his research and believes in it as much as we do and is trying to scoop them up while they are still a bargain and is in this for the long haul.
2) This large buyer is here to make a quick 200-300% gain. Ever since price has risen to 12+, all the buy orders that were $5 and below have slowly crept up into the $12+ range.
If you look below 12.90 in the market depth table, there is very little liquidity to hold the price. It's almost as if the the large buyer has suckered everyone into buying at $13+ and is slowly letting his coins go whilst keeping 1-2 big orders below market price to give the illussion that there is very strong demand.

Personally i was thinking it was scenario 1, but after watching the PA and the market depth today, its starting to look like the chances of it being scenario 2 is not remote. Also a rich banker or fund investor is unlikely to have the technical background to understand the details of Bitcoin and appreciate the genius of it's design or believe in it's security.

I felt that way when I didn't buy at $2.

Can't have everything I guess.

i like your post, the problem of all enthusiasts here is that they are somehow already maxed out on how much they want to be exposed. or have to rethink their exposure over the next few months.

i like your post, the problem of all enthusiasts here is that they are somehow already maxed out on how much they want to be exposed. or have to rethink their exposure over the next few months.

I have bought recently and am not concerned if the price drops.

I have bought recently and am not concerned if the price drops.

If the price drops, I will chalk it up to "Oh well, I missed a better opportunity to buy I could have never known for certain would exist", and that it will go up again eventually before I need to spend that money.

I am convinced that one day, which could be tomorrow, or could be 6 months, 12 months, 18 months from now, somebody who owns a single building in all of Manhattan (which on paper is worth more than Bitcoin as a whole) will make it over our arduous learning curve and will say OMG, $150 million for the future of money is a god damn bargain, this is it, right here right now, and the risk is manageable.  And they will act accordingly.  And at that point, buying bitcoin at anything remotely what we're used to will be a long gone opportunity, and people will be saying, "WTH was I thinking listing an ask at $15?"

In my view, the only thing standing between now and then, which may or may not happen, is some threat to the block chain or a major vulnerability, or someone successfully demonstrates a 51% attack or scary double spend, which would cause a temporary sharp dip in the price, followed by a fix within days.  People without the ability to assess the technical aspects of a problem and the soundness of any fix will fold and run, and meanwhile I know my well-secured paper bitcoins will be safe.  I'll be buying and telling everyone else I know to buy, watching the price slowly climb back as everyone else realizes that Bitcoin will always win the long game, the same way BitTorrent wins the long game against the Hollywood media cops.