Topic: A word of caution to those who have bought recently - page 3. (Read 4705 times)

Is BitInstant really a direct seller? I always thought that they just transfer the money to an exchange, so their trades show up in the order book.

Thanks for this valuable info. I've always been suspecting that OTC Volume was high. Add to that volume on other exchanges and the gox market starts to look a little less mighty. The less liquid mtgox is the more likely it is to be "manipulated". It's just very tempting for someone seeking to buy a large amount OTC or on other exchanges to just slam the price on gox beforehand and then lock in good prices with bitcoin suppliers, isn't it?

I'm not sure arbitraging between exchanges is working the way I expected it to work (make it all one big market). I'll have to ponder this more.

The off exchange market is much larger than many people realize.   Someone looking to buy or sell a large quantity (>1000 BTC) will find that due to lack of slippage an OTC transaction with a trusted counterparty makes more sense.  Generally when someone is looking to buy 10K BTC or more they get to know the other party so I have spent considerable time emailing and talking with potential clients.  There is a growing interest from non-traditional money (i.e. those people who have no interest in mining, or a certain darknet marketplace).  While I never ask "how much do you make?" or "what is your net worth?" you get an feel for someone finances on how they deal with money.  In FC4B we have clients who are freaking out because a $400 ACH is a day late.  We have also had direct buyers be willing to post six figure wires a couple days early because it was easier for them to get it done that day.  The later aren't people building mining rigs in their garage. 

We (Tangible Cryptography LLC) sell about 10K BTC a week in direct off exchange sales.  Our highest volume week was closer to triple that.  I have learned indirectly through clients that there are about three or four other entities which can handle transactions in the >1000 BTC range.  So what is total OTC volume (to include other direct sellers like BitInstant)?  It is hard to guess but I wouldn't be surprised if it is more than 40K to 60K BTC per week.

Is he the guy we can attribute everything to?

can easily be changed to:

This thread reminds me of the "cautionary warnings" when the price went from 3-4$ (the 2nd time.)

Same old story - where is 'The Manipulator' thread?

Together with - imagine that a millionaire  learns about bitcoin and decides to try it out with his pocket money

As it is even harder to speculate on the intent of a possible speculator, Best pratice is to hedge in a ratio that you feel comfortable with. You know you struck a balance when you feel equally bad about your asks and your bids.

This. Just look at bitpays numbers to see how much its growing

I think the spike of new users the Blockchain.info wallet has gotten since December hasn't shown it's full impact yet. Bitcoin has a steep learning curve so I think people will typically trust it only after a few months of experimenting with it. Once these new users start moving bigger amounts it will put a firm support under the price IMO.

This might be some kind of tactics, to "test" the price level … probably in the past this trick worked a few times, then you can profit. But right now I don't see it. Also, no weekend-dip, afai-can-see.

Actually the HUGE buy and then HUGE sell came within two or so minutes of each other. So yeah, the 'manipulator' may have needed to buy a bunch of btc just so he could use it to push the price down, and didn't care about the trading fee.

Even worse, its a schizophrenic manipulator who does stuff like BUY 10k BTC to raise the price up to 14.31 and about an hour or so later sells it down below 14!  And then buys little bits back up to 14.20...

I'm sure there's a simpler explanation to this story...

Because the volume and market cap could certainly allow a single large buyer or a consortium of sophisticated traders, to manipulate the btc market very easily.

Why is there always this urge to attribute price movements to "one large buyer" or "the manipulator" etc?  

I feel like there is a psychological need to attribute things to single people... maybe this is why so many believe in god, and in a king or president to control things?

I would have no idea how to extrapolate those figure however FastCash4Bitcoins has moved over 200,000 btc and counting and the other side of there business Bitcoinsdirect is often out of coin.  So there is not insignificant  volume there.

If I had to guess I would say at least  5000 coins move in any given week on bitcoin-otc

And I have see significant orders on localbitcoins.net.

Again what percentage of gox volume I have no idea.  

+1

I believe the recent media attention and the growth in user base supports this price increase and we'll continue to see it climb in 2013.  I am concerned about the effect that ASIC delivery or ASIC failure will have on the market.

Again, im just speculating but seeing 9k orders from a single account at current prices points to someone spending 150k into Bitcoins only recently.

I may be totally wrong and am underestimating the exponential effect of Bitcoin popularity.

Your story of one large buyer reminds me of a conspiracy theory. And as usual with conspiracy theories they are often false.

Also below 12.90 there might not be a lot of orders, but if the price drops lower I will add to my position, and there are probably more people who don't have orders in place, but will act the same.

The only reason for it is that the more and more ppl getting into bitcoin. Just see how many new users blockchain.info is getting: https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users Bitcoin subreddit is constantly getting more and more subscribers.

Also don't foget that amount of fiat money is practically infinite.