Topic: A word of caution to those who have bought recently - page 4. (Read 4703 times)

Interesting, if you don't want to give exact figures, how large is OTC trade in percent of Gox volume in your opinion?

Interesting

Any evidence of this in the public trading records.

I also know there is a significant amount of otc transactions.

From June to Sep, the price nearly tripled without any significant fundamental news(unless i missed something).
Then pirate defaulted and there was a spike down to $7+, which was readily absorbed and price has slowly creeped back up to where it is now(14+).

Yes, i know Wordpress started accepting BTC recently and Bitcoin is going to be gaining exposure at CES. More businesses are accepting bitcoin, all well and good.
But a 300% gain(all before Wordpress and CES news) just smells fishy to me.

What i think:
A 300% price gain in 3+ months without any significant fundamental reason is the work of 1 large buyer.
1) Maybe this buyer heard of bitcoin, did his research and believes in it as much as we do and is trying to scoop them up while they are still a bargain and is in this for the long haul.
2) This large buyer is here to make a quick 200-300% gain. Ever since price has risen to 12+, all the buy orders that were $5 and below have slowly crept up into the $12+ range.
If you look below 12.90 in the market depth table, there is very little liquidity to hold the price. It's almost as if the the large buyer has suckered everyone into buying at $13+ and is slowly letting his coins go whilst keeping 1-2 big orders below market price to give the illussion that there is very strong demand.

Personally i was thinking it was scenario 1, but after watching the PA and the market depth today, its starting to look like the chances of it being scenario 2 is not remote. Also a rich banker or fund investor is unlikely to have the technical background to understand the details of Bitcoin and appreciate the genius of it's design or believe in it's security.