Lets say 20% of retail. Is that reasonable?
Well if that is the case and we have them running by June then with BTC again at 2k USD ROI would be 23days.
There are a lot of variables, some of them still to be set as manufacturing progresses. One thing is for sure the higher BTC is by Q3 the sooner these chips will ROI. Is that a face-palm statement? Pretty obvious I guess.
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/b1ebec17ea
~correct link inserted~
Edit we are on target to get to market around the same time as CoinTerra with their GSX I ready in June 'At just $1,599 and delivering over 400 gigahash per second'. Except we will be 100dollars cheaper for 32GH more. And as our offering is air cooled and theirs water do we have a cooler running chip?
That's obviously still not perfect because there will be a large expense coming up very soon with tapeout and the wafer order, and then further expenses for parts and assembly later. If you really want to keep it in BTC it's pretty simple to break it down into different costs at different times based on their exchange rate at the time, and the calculate the total.
IE, if you think the cost if going to be $300 per card, and half is going to upfront NRE (at current rate, $630) and half will be boards/parts/assembly (in early May, at say $1500), then the cost of a board in BTC is 0.33. Using all the same numbers you did, except using 0.33BTC for hardware cost, it looks like this.
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/83c5caae7d
BTW - Why are you estimating starting hashing at the start of June, even Ken's prediction was that tapeout would be 8 weeks after a vendor is chosen (so late April) with chips in Q3.