...
Selling 28nm chips onto the market and mining with them will be profitable for many months to come, even when the network hash rate is 10PH/S.
At this share price, we only need to hold 1% of the network to have 100% annual return from mining alone. Obviously there won't actually be 100% annual return because of rising difficulty, but we can use these "annual return snapshots" for share price valuation. For example, asicminer seems to fluctuate between 20%-50% ("annual snapshot").. if it goes higher than that then investors buy up more shares. I can share my excel spreadsheet calculations if you wish.
Remember, difficulty setting does not "know" who our competitors are and is not biased towards anyone. It's a simple number, and our chips will still be profitable under those conitions.
Selling 28nm chips onto the market and mining with them will be profitable for many months to come, even when the network hash rate is 10PH/S.
At this share price, we only need to hold 1% of the network to have 100% annual return from mining alone. Obviously there won't actually be 100% annual return because of rising difficulty, but we can use these "annual return snapshots" for share price valuation. For example, asicminer seems to fluctuate between 20%-50% ("annual snapshot").. if it goes higher than that then investors buy up more shares. I can share my excel spreadsheet calculations if you wish.
Remember, difficulty setting does not "know" who our competitors are and is not biased towards anyone. It's a simple number, and our chips will still be profitable under those conitions.
Lets say, Actm starts to mine at 450,000 Gh is November (probably not going to happen).
To set this up, it will cost what? Lets say 900,000
Lets say, they pay 0.15 $/kWh
This will generate Cumulative Return (starting Nov):
$1,520,000
$2,820,000
$3,500,000
$3,830,000
$3,970,000
$4,000,000
$3,970,000 <-- May, game over
$3,910,000
Monthly Profit
$2,420,000
$1,300,000
$676,000
$330,000
$138,000
$31,000
$-28400 <-- May. Game over
$-61400
It becomes unprofitable in May.
Difficulty for the same timeframe
Difficulty (MM)
365
657
1182
2128
3831
6895
12412
22341
Numbers are form: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
This calculation is pretty much worthless. You pull a random number and then assume it will be a static value for the coming six months. That is just not useful. No mining operation is going to maintain a static hashrate for six months. Everyone, including Ken, knows that if you want to maintain your TNH% you have to increase your hashrate. This is Bitcoin Mining 101.
Assuming your hypothetical November rate, calculate what ActM would have to increase by, on a monthly basis, to ensure a positive return. That might be interesting to some.
