It isn't the case that people in the developing world don't have any fiat.
How do they pay for their mobile phones (of which there are >7 billion in the world today)?
Answer: with fiat.
Smooth be careful thinking you know the Philippines better than me. I lived here since the 1990s. I have seen all the changes up close.
Of course they have some fiat, but for many still not enough to pay their daily needs. They get a hand me down mobile or that is their prized possession, but they still don't have enough money to pay the telecom provider always, so their phone is only fully active some of the time. They rely on free data from Facebook to be always online but this means they can't access the web.
There are facts like these which give me unique insights.
There are certainly people who don't have credit cards, and certainly payment methods can be an issue (though I'm pretty sure at least some of the markets have "top off" type methods available).
Only <1% of the population in the Philippines has a credit card or something like that. None of the people we know have a credit card. There is no top off sevice that is instant access. There is GCash from Globe telecom (and SmartMoney from Smart telecom) but there is no way filipinos are going to travel to the Globe or Smart office and stand in a long time in order to sign up for some measily electronic token online. I did see the first ATM top off at my gym just recently so maybe that will change over the coming years, but for the meantime the situation is still as I stated.
You don't have a clue about marketing if you don't understand attrition rate.
But it also isn't true that people in the developing world can't get Bitcoin if they had a reason to want it.
That is the most clueless statement ever. Not to be condescending, but seriously you have no clue about marketing or what you are talking about.
You don't factor in attribition rate to any of your analysis. There is no way the referral system can work if people have to go obtain Bitcoin. No one here has a clue how to do it and it would consume a whole day of effort to get it done even if they knew how. I know because I have purchased bitCoin here with cash and it takes me at least a half of day.
We are talking about very small morsels of tokens.
Another thing you do not understand is that filipinos for example do everything in small morsels. They buy their shampoo in 10ml packets, they buy their cooking oil daily from a vendor in small cellophane. Etc..
You are not thinking correctly from their economy-of-scale perspective.
Marketing is a very detailed science.
Supposedly a lot of the traffic on purse.io comes from developing world people who do Mechanical Turk work and then trade their Amazon store credit for Bitcoin. I don't know how to tell if that is correct or not.
High tech filipinos probably doing that but that is not the masses. Many (I think most) filipinos find they are not confident enough or not qualified for online work of that sort.
Some of the college grads of the better universities dabble in something like that if they have the inclination and their degree did not give them a better opportunity. So it only fits to some. A graduating doctor would prefer to practice medicine.
There are other apps you can't do with fiat, because you are not allowed to. And this problem will be growing more pervasive. For example very difficult to get Paypal or Amazon Payments to accept certain business such as dating sites, selling precious metals, etc..
This is absolutely true. The problem is that it is very difficult to run these businesses
with crypto. Once you sell your precious metals for crypto, what do you do with the crypto?
You are so defeatist.
In the west maybe, but then again we don't know all the things being done with Bitcoin that we can't see!
Multiply by a 1000 perhaps in the developing world because the laws are much more lax here. We don't really know. And people have more incentive to ignore laws here and they have an attitude of ignoring laws as much as possible.
My thought is that the youth here have a very big incentive to adopt anything that pays them even a $1 a day if it means they can do it from the mobile phone at home at their leisure.