Topic: After 1 year of diversified bitcoin dice house bank investment we lost 32.46% - page 6. (Read 17798 times)

Also I wonder by what reasons you've lowered our review score from 82% to 77%? Is it because I've decided not to buy paid ad on your website in January?

At first glance everything. On what grounds is it different?

You could check our official thread where I post how many investors we have and what's their kelly level. We have about 10 investors with high kelly level. And yes, it means that investors with 10xKelly receives 10x times more than he actually invested [think of kelly as a leverage in forex, it allows you to trade with leverage, on dice sites it's actually the same]. That's what kelly means and thats why I told you about your wrong calculations by email. You should know that BitDice risks 1% of the bankroll, PRC or JD risks 0.5%. Knowing it you can calculate weighted bankroll and eventually your real percent in it.

BitDice as well as all major dice sites show only real invested amount. However if you check your invest statistic on each of those websites you see real supplying percent.

This is a really good thread, just read the return and I am thinking of investing in a dice site, looks like good return rates.
Just learned today that dice.ninja closed down. Shame

We count it as exactly what you display front and centre on your website


I don't see weighted bankroll anywhere. You have 2 big investors on 10x kelly? ok... If person A has ฿1 invested at 1x kelly and person B has ฿1 invested at 10x kelly does person B receive 10X more  return from the sites overall profit/loss?

Help me understand it fully and I will either change the bankroll figure we use, change the calculation or just add a footnote.    


The review score is how highly we rate the site out of 100. If you click on the review score you will be taken to that sites entry in the Bitcoin Dice review page

http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/bitcoin-dice-reviews/

For which is better between PRC and Win88 it depends what you are after and what is important to you. For that reason we made the Bitcoin Dice Site Selector

http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/dice-site-selector/

You tell it what you want from a dice site and it will give you personalised recommendations

I have now, but why this reminder came from you and not the OP?


Can I ask you politely, on what grounds would you consider MultiDice same business model and risk profile as icedice or the other site?

Did you read his terms?

This table help us so much to choose where we have to invest our bitcoin
But, what does review score mean ?

And which one is better ? PRC/Win88 ?

OP: would you be so kind to review and include MultiDice in your list. We accept investments at 1% commission and operate crowd-funding bankroll.

I have an account on JD. Gimme 1 BTC worth of CLAMs. I currently have a handful there, and no intention of taking it out, so why not bump it up to 1 BTC worth. hehehe.

If I remember correctly, Doge-Dice had much higher profit than JD. Maybe it's just people are braver/taking more risk when playing with altcoins.


OP, take the offer!

It's quite possible that they are just unlucky. At Just-Dice even after over a billion bets and despite having a house edge of a full 1% we only had something like 0.38% profit. It turns out that most of the volume is in relatively few relatively large bets from a couple of big players, so the fate of the profit depends on their luck. You might that that after a billion bets the law of large numbers would start to assert itself, but when 99% of those bets are effectively "dust", that's not the case.

Since relaunching, the profit at Just-Dice has pretty consistently been over the expected 1%. That's just as bad as being under 1% in that it makes things look suspicious.


You should try monitoring the site that invented crowd-sourced bankrolling, Just-Dice. It is run by the A team. We love it when a plan comes together, fool.

I'd be happy too give you 1 BTC worth of CLAMs to invest for the purposes of comparison. Set up an account and PM me with details and I'll send them over.


That's my biggest regret re. coming up with the idea of crowd-sourced bankrolls. It is a great vector for scammers to get their hands on large quantities of other people's money.

I recently implemented a way of partially addressing that problem. Investors on Just-Dice no longer have to deposit the full amount they want to invest onto the site. They can deposit just part of it and keep the rest in their own local wallet but declare the full amount as the amount they want to invest. That way if the site gets hacked or the operator turns rogue they only lose the fraction they deposited. In effect each investor is responsible for taking care of their own share of the "cold wallet". There's no big cold wallet for the operator to steal. See 'What is "offsite investment"?' on the FAQ tab at Just-Dice.com for more information.

I've emailed this guy two weeks ago telling exactly the same, except we have weighted bankroll at B13655, and he counts it by B1510. All his math is wrong.

PS: This week V3 will be released where you can set kelly by yourself, among other updates


You forgot that for 4 month we were above expected profit 1.2% to 1.6% to be exact and now just got back to expected. The same is for PRC they were lower expected 1% for some time until recently somebody lost few hundreds BTC there and now they at 1%. So we aren't unlucky and don't fake turnovers. The problem is how you count profits.

Ice-Dice is down for last 2 weeks and all our funds are gone. I have 2.1 BTC there.

Anyone this some?

Time to re-read what I said.

Although I removed my investment at BD because I cannot put my own kelly, their math does work out imo.

Their profit is even closer to expected than any other site:

Profit: 870.8 BTC
EV: 873.2 BTC
Profit/EV: 99.7%

shitty luck but I guess that's part of what happens when you are also investing in the lesser dice sites. though dice ninja did seem like a reasonably good one while it was live but not so much with the last two.

Spot on, PRC's actual return is in line with their expected return (expected return is based on the edge and turnover, see it only on the investment comparison table) so I am not suspecting them, Peerbet is close enough and CoinWin/DiceNow have so little volume its hard to make any conclusions. Win88 do not publish the data so I guess they should be suspected by default.

But PRC's profit have gone pretty high. Problem is the amount invested have grown by higher % then the amount wagered, so your share in profits got diluted. Not to mention that many investors are on higher kelly option. If you are on 0.5 Kelly (default option when moving to the new site) you should change it to at least x1.

All figures are updated and it’s not pretty. See the table here

http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/dice-investment-comparison/

In the last 2 weeks Peerbet had a nice bump from ฿1.07 to ฿1.132.

Poket Rockets Casino went from ฿1681 invested to ฿2661 and ฿135275 bet to ฿146375.

Our BitDice investment went from ฿1.046 to ฿1.064 with site invest growing from ฿1290 to ฿1506 and around ฿10,000 bitcoins wagered!

With 10,000 coins wagered in 2 weeks at both Poket Rockets Casino and BitDice site profit should have gone up a lot more, we say this about BitDice over and over again, it seems they are either

1.   Unlucky
2.   Faking turnover
3.   Underpaying investors
4.   Any combination of the above.

I am unable to login to CoinWin and it shows no bets and no balances. This is probably another runner but because I only noticed it today I will give it a while. If the anonymous operators are out there please contact me to return my ฿1.141

IceDice appear to have done a runner costing me another full bitcoin. For about 3 weeks the site has just been a grey screen saying


and the operator is not answering emails. I am not that surprised, I should have seen it coming by the multilevel marketing program and previous problems.

4 months in and we have lost 11% due to 2 sites scamming us. Even before the IceDice loss a friend asked me what bitcoin dice site I recommend he invest in, I told him none of them. They are run by the B team or the C team and the operator incentives are perverse (they make more money disappearing or fudging the numbers than running the site honestly).

People are recommending I add new sites that have the same business model and risk profile as those that have just scammed me. They could literally be run by the same people. Unless the site gives me the ฿1 to invest this would be idiocy on my part.

I am glad to see there is a lot of discussion about trustless solutions, when this is in place I will again consider recommending people invest in bitcoin dice sites. For now the ecosystem is full of snakes and amateurs and is best avoided. That realisation has made this a worthwhile experiment and I will keep adding to and improving the Bitcoin Dice Guide.

win88 is pretty nice