All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: oda.krell on December 03, 2016, 06:01:15 AM

(to windjc)

Hey, look who's here! Glad to see you, champ!

(to himself)

Damn, he showed up after all. And here I was thinking I could keep the reward. Screw this guy and his hoverboard.

Transfer's on the way. Well deserved bonus, that was an exceptionally accurate prediction. If there's another game like this, hope you can join again.

Always mein Freund.

lolikop

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Quote from: windjc on December 02, 2016, 07:47:05 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on November 30, 2016, 07:38:58 PM

And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:

windjc

As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.

Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.

The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).

Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, ~~Harry~~windjc!

Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).

Cool. Nice bonus. I'll use this to pay for my Christmas present to myself - a hoverboard. So when I'm rolling around my house I'll think of all of you fondly.

Windjc 2016/17 tell us ur predictiion Cool

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

(to windjc)

Hey, look who's here! Glad to see you, champ!

(to himself)

Damn, he showed up after all. And here I was thinking I could keep the reward. Screw this guy and his hoverboard.

Transfer's on the way. Well deserved bonus, that was an exceptionally accurate prediction. If there's another game like this, hope you can join again.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: oda.krell on November 30, 2016, 07:38:58 PM

And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:

windjc

As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.

Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.

The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).

Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, ~~Harry~~windjc!

Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).

Cool. Nice bonus. I'll use this to pay for my Christmas present to myself - a hoverboard. So when I'm rolling around my house I'll think of all of you fondly.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: lolikop on December 02, 2016, 04:56:41 PM

Congrats to the winner did he replyed yet or he allready got so much money predicting the value he dont even care

Haha, no, he didn't respond yet.

And, well, I do think windjc has been a pretty successful trader, but if I had to guess, lack of an answer is more due to infrequent forum presence than anything else.

I'm writing him a PM now, and then let's wait another week to see if he drops by to collect.

lolikop

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Congrats to the winner did he replyed yet or he allready got so much money predicting the value he dont even care

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on December 02, 2016, 06:35:22 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 01, 2016, 03:58:25 PM

Quote

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

I would certainly be up for it :-) . I thought the range guessing was a very interesting setup, but just guessing a price would be easier.

Maybe I should have stated this more clearly, but contestants were able to enter a point estimate -- it just means that you were at a disadvantage to actually 'hit' the correct price compared to those entering a range, while having a major advantage on the second criterion ("width of range").

Spaceman_Spiff

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1001

₪``Campaign Manager´´₪

Quote from: oda.krell on December 01, 2016, 03:58:25 PM

Quote

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

I would certainly be up for it :-) . I thought the range guessing was a very interesting setup, but just guessing a price would be easier.

uki

legendary

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1000

cryptojunk bag holder

Quote from: oda.krell on December 01, 2016, 03:58:25 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on December 01, 2016, 09:44:34 AM

Maybe in a few months ;-) ?

That's the spirit! Cheesy

Quote

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

That would be great, as I was regreting to be late last time! Wink

117% growth over a year is actually a great score, if you ask me, I was gonna predict somewhere around $500.
It will be very hard to repeat that growth this coming year.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on December 01, 2016, 09:44:34 AM

Maybe in a few months ;-) ?

That's the spirit! Cheesy

Quote

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

Spaceman_Spiff

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1001

₪``Campaign Manager´´₪

Congrats windjc ! And thanks again for the game Oda, it was quite generous. I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.
I knew I was being optimistic, but I figured I needed to carve out a niche. Maybe in a few months ;-) ?

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

I thought windjc was a permabull, so this is a major surprise for me. Shocked

Congrats anyway!

Wexlike

legendary

Activity: 1473

Merit: 1086

Congratulations!

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Just to wrap it all up:

A year ago, when the contestants entered their predictions, the price (by the same metric as used above) was 337 USD, so up ~117% since then. Not quite as much as the majority of contestants predicted, but not too shabby either imo ;)

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:

windjc

As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.

Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.

The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).

Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, ~~Harry~~windjc!

Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: sgbett on December 01, 2015, 10:02:44 AM

check my figures! there were so few entries it didn't seem worth working out out programmatically so I just figured it out by hand, so inevitably there could be some human error :)

~3 more months to go for 51k USD :D

crilleaz

full member

Activity: 236

Merit: 100

★ Always strive for the best ★

Maybe we need to start a new one starting now which ends on the same date as this one. We can see how people react on the current price.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: Wexlike on June 15, 2016, 02:21:46 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on November 18, 2015, 11:59:44 AM

Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)...

How fast times are changing. :)

It seems you left out the "by my choice" part :D

Anyway, 5 1/2 months left before evaluation... maybe the more bullish submissions to the contest have a shot at winning after all.

Wexlike

legendary

Activity: 1473

Merit: 1086