Also, note to self: next time, set the form definitions to check for this stuff
Topic: All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC. - page 3. (Read 4028 times)
November 29, 2015, 12:42:46 PM
Somebody submitted an entry with lower and upper bound values switched around. Unless there's a clear objection to doing so, I'd like to accept the entry (with the values switched around), since it's pretty clear that it was intended to be the other way around.
Also, note to self: next time, set the form definitions to check for this stuff
Also, note to self: next time, set the form definitions to check for this stuff
November 28, 2015, 01:04:34 PM
Reminder: Only 3 more days to submit an entry.
November 26, 2015, 01:21:01 PM
Ok, I send in a prediction!
Was hard to get it to be accepted as non dust, so I just set it at 10k satoshi to be done with it
Good luck everybody.
Was hard to get it to be accepted as non dust, so I just set it at 10k satoshi to be done with it
Good luck everybody.
November 26, 2015, 12:47:36 PM
People are generally hopeless. Or 1 satoshi is *really* valuable these days!
For fairness sake, getting 1 satoshi through the network might require more patience than anyone realistically would have
Wondering now, what's the smallest amount of dust or near-dust you can currently get through if you're willing to wait, say, a day or two. Anyone happens to know that? I guess it depends on the number of nodes that are set to relay non-standard transactions, right?
(EDIT) Let's say the goal is to spend the absolutely lowest amount in total. Which likely means you want to cross the dust threshold (546 satoshis ~= 0.0019 USD), with no fees attached, so you're at the mercy of miners to have it included in a block, but at least it'll be relayed. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong here).
In other words, participation is not 1 satoshi like I claimed, but more likely 546 satoshis, or about 0.2 cent.
November 26, 2015, 12:26:05 PM
People are generally hopeless. Or 1 satoshi is *really* valuable these days!
November 26, 2015, 10:24:25 AM
Still only 3 submissions... either some of you are waiting for the last days to submit a prediction (not sure why), or there's less interest in this contest than I had thought.
/game theory hat on
(The following is not based on any information of the actually submitted entries, but purely based on the number of submissions, which happens to be publicly available by looking at the address I posted in OP. In other words, I'm not giving away any information that you couldn't have already gained by looking at the address, plus some analytical reasoning.)
To encourage speculators that aren't sure whether they should submit a "guess", I'd like to point out that at the moment, even a participant with no knowledge of the market, submitting as an entry, purely by chance, but based on game theoretic considerations, e.g. the range "between $1 and $1 billion" would have:
(1) either a 1 in 4 chance to win, assuming the other participants also submitted bets without actual market analysis, but purely by chance, and similar ranges (i.e. from "extremely unlikely low" to "extremely unlikely high"). This is simplified of course, because the condition "narrowest range wins" means if you pick a "silly big range" that is just $1 narrower than that of the others, you win. But for simplicity, let's assume each "pure guesser" just picks the same "silly big" range as a prediction.
(2) a chance to win that is a function of the prediction ability of the other participants, in case the others do attempt to actually predict the market. While I'm sure some people have a better than pure luck chance to predict the price, over such a long time horizon I don't think anyone is really close to certainty, so for a very optimistic (imo) estimate that a market predictor has a 2:1 chance to get the price right, you, as the fourth submitter with no market knowledge (and winning by "default" because of the silly big range you submitted) would still have a chance of at least (1/3)^3 ~= 4% to win, without any effort.
However, that assumes that the ability to predict correctly of each trader (which I set to 2:1) are independent, which obviously they are not: if their predictions match, then they overlap, so your chance to win is closer to 1/3, and if their predictions don't match, then the initial estimate that each of them has a 2/3 chance to win is not really tenable. To see why, imagine one trader predicts "1 to 10", the other "1000 to 10,000". It makes little sense to say that each of these predictions has a 2:1 chance to be correct. Assuming that the market can in principle be predicted - stochastically at least - we would probably want to connect probabilities of prediction correctness to some objective, extensionally distinguishable features of the market, in which case, the traders' prediction probabilities of disjoint predictions should -roughly- sum to one, so again, you're sitting -very roughly speaking- somewhere between a 4% and 33% chance to win, without any knowledge of the market future.
/game theory hat off
Summary: Even if you completely suck at market predictions, given the current low number of participants, you still have a real shot at winning this contest. Unless you are already sitting on a rather large coin stash, I'd say a real chance (as argued above) to win ~0.44 BTC is probably worth the minor hassle of submitting a prediction :D
Or even simpler put: only ~4 days left to submit an entry!
/game theory hat on
(The following is not based on any information of the actually submitted entries, but purely based on the number of submissions, which happens to be publicly available by looking at the address I posted in OP. In other words, I'm not giving away any information that you couldn't have already gained by looking at the address, plus some analytical reasoning.)
To encourage speculators that aren't sure whether they should submit a "guess", I'd like to point out that at the moment, even a participant with no knowledge of the market, submitting as an entry, purely by chance, but based on game theoretic considerations, e.g. the range "between $1 and $1 billion" would have:
(1) either a 1 in 4 chance to win, assuming the other participants also submitted bets without actual market analysis, but purely by chance, and similar ranges (i.e. from "extremely unlikely low" to "extremely unlikely high"). This is simplified of course, because the condition "narrowest range wins" means if you pick a "silly big range" that is just $1 narrower than that of the others, you win. But for simplicity, let's assume each "pure guesser" just picks the same "silly big" range as a prediction.
(2) a chance to win that is a function of the prediction ability of the other participants, in case the others do attempt to actually predict the market. While I'm sure some people have a better than pure luck chance to predict the price, over such a long time horizon I don't think anyone is really close to certainty, so for a very optimistic (imo) estimate that a market predictor has a 2:1 chance to get the price right, you, as the fourth submitter with no market knowledge (and winning by "default" because of the silly big range you submitted) would still have a chance of at least (1/3)^3 ~= 4% to win, without any effort.
However, that assumes that the ability to predict correctly of each trader (which I set to 2:1) are independent, which obviously they are not: if their predictions match, then they overlap, so your chance to win is closer to 1/3, and if their predictions don't match, then the initial estimate that each of them has a 2/3 chance to win is not really tenable. To see why, imagine one trader predicts "1 to 10", the other "1000 to 10,000". It makes little sense to say that each of these predictions has a 2:1 chance to be correct. Assuming that the market can in principle be predicted - stochastically at least - we would probably want to connect probabilities of prediction correctness to some objective, extensionally distinguishable features of the market, in which case, the traders' prediction probabilities of disjoint predictions should -roughly- sum to one, so again, you're sitting -very roughly speaking- somewhere between a 4% and 33% chance to win, without any knowledge of the market future.
/game theory hat off
Summary: Even if you completely suck at market predictions, given the current low number of participants, you still have a real shot at winning this contest. Unless you are already sitting on a rather large coin stash, I'd say a real chance (as argued above) to win ~0.44 BTC is probably worth the minor hassle of submitting a prediction :D
Or even simpler put: only ~4 days left to submit an entry!
November 23, 2015, 12:35:06 PM
May the luck of Satoshi shine on me. Like Peter Jones, "I'm in" 
I have no idea who Peter Jones is, but you're in indeed. Also, thanks a lot:)
November 22, 2015, 05:29:13 PM
Three valid prediction submissions so far -- and another one with a very generous value attached to it -- meaning the lucky, or hopefully rather: competent winner will get at least ~0.44 BTC as of now.
8 more days to go, by the way.
8 more days to go, by the way.
November 22, 2015, 08:41:55 AM
Good way to speculate more rational prices (to win prize)!
Also it will provide good data. Let's join contest.
Thanks for it!
Also it will provide good data. Let's join contest.
Thanks for it!
November 22, 2015, 04:22:45 AM
May the luck of Satoshi shine on me. Like Peter Jones, "I'm in"
November 21, 2015, 12:32:56 PM
Consider my entry pending... just waiting for a bit of small change to work its way through the network so I can post an entry.
Anyone else remember the days when transactions went in the next block
Anyone else remember the days when transactions went in the next block
November 20, 2015, 04:56:13 AM
^ Hell no. Anyone can join.
Actually, I x-posted this in the newcomer forum. Plenty new members seem to be looking for ways to squeeze a few satoshis out of some faucet, so I was thinking maybe a contest like this is interesting because it offers a chance to win more than what a faucet usually offers.
Actually, I x-posted this in the newcomer forum. Plenty new members seem to be looking for ways to squeeze a few satoshis out of some faucet, so I was thinking maybe a contest like this is interesting because it offers a chance to win more than what a faucet usually offers.
November 19, 2015, 08:08:52 PM
Any user rank restrictions?
Anyway I will wait with prediction till 30 of November - for now i just stick to this thread
Anyway I will wait with prediction till 30 of November - for now i just stick to this thread
November 19, 2015, 07:51:22 PM
So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?
Correct.
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I'll be here, and I'll remember, don't worry. Alternatively, I'm sure someone will remind me of it .
And re: using the data for my own purposes. I'll have a ~10 day head start (then the data becomes public, like I said) on anyone else over a 1 year prediction horizon -- don't think there's much I can do with it.
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
Thanks. Don't overthink it. I'm doing this game because I don't like this forum if it's filled with nothing but {bull, bear} spam. That, and that I want to get a feeling for how good we are (collectively) in far-away price estimates. Curiosity, basically.
November 19, 2015, 03:03:00 PM
So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
Look at OP's track record and the last contest he ran.
November 19, 2015, 02:55:36 PM
So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
November 18, 2015, 06:00:32 PM
^ What's the upper bound of your estimate?
lol
I will play again. I just need a day or two to decide what I'll allow the price to be in a year (I don't usually have to plan so far out
) November 18, 2015, 04:27:44 PM
^ What's the upper bound of your estimate?
November 18, 2015, 03:59:37 PM
$999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999.00
November 18, 2015, 02:22:40 PM
First entry submitted and accepted.
Thanks for the more than required tx value. As a result, the winning prize just increased by about 15%
Thanks for the more than required tx value. As a result, the winning prize just increased by about 15%
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