Topic: All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC. - page 4. (Read 4026 times)
November 18, 2015, 12:27:23 PM
(EDIT 1) Updated subject of OP (0.3 BTC -> 0.44 BTC)
November 18, 2015, 11:59:44 AM
Intro
How about another prediction contest? Last time I ran one of these, the prediction horizon was 90 days. This time, let's make it a year from now!
Participation is free, but I'd kindly ask you to send a tx of any value (one satoshi even, if you manage to get it through) to the address below, to confirm that you're a network user. In return, I pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC (or $100 in BTC, by my choice) to the winner of this contest.
Entries are submitted hidden through a form, but will be made public at the end of the submission period. Details follow below. If you're not a fan of long explanations, skip to the summary (in red) at the end of this post.
Feeling interested?
The rules
How to participate:
* Submit your entry by November 30th 2015, 23:59 UTC.
* To do so, open up this form on Google Docs: November 2015 to November 2016 Bitcoin Price Prediction Contest
* Enter your forum name in the first field, and your interval estimate for the price per bitcoin in USD, evaluated against the value of a 20 day SMA on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, in the third and fourth field. For example: Entering 1 (USD) in the "lower bound" field, 1,000,000 (USD) in the "upper bound" field, is interpreted as: "The USD value of one bitcoin (understood as the value of a 20 day SMA) on Bitstamp on November 30th 2016 will be between $1 and $1,000,000". Got it?
* Send a Bitcoin transaction -- any value will do, no matter how small -- to this address under my control: 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC
* Enter the txid of your transaction in the second field of the above Google form. Press 'Submit'. Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)... if your estimate is the winning entry, that is.
Details:
* Prize: I hereby pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC, or $100 in BTC, to the winner of this contest. Which of the two values will be the prize is my own choice at the time the contest ends. In addition, the value of all participation transactions will be sent to the winner(s) as well.
* Entries: As a contest entry, you are asked to submit a price range, e.g. $100 to $10,000. You are free to make this range as wide or as narrow as you wish. If you prefer to enter a point estimate, simply enter the same value in both fields (the "lower" and "upper" field). Both values must be integers, and the "lower bound" value must be smaller (or equal) to the "upper bound" value.
* Price as moving average: These two values are compared to the value of a 20 day simple moving average over USD per BTC on Bitstamp at the end of November 30th 2016. The correct value, i.e. the value of 20 day SMA upon daily close on November 30th 2016, is determined on bitcoinwisdom.com.
* Source of correct value: In case either Bitstamp or bitcoinwisdom is dysfunct by the evaluation deadline (November 2016), or it is generally agreed that one or both of these sources do not accurately reflect the price per bitcoin anymore, I will chose an alternative exchange and/or charting site that represents the "gold standard" at that time.
* Winner determination: The winner of this contest is determined as the narrowest correct valid entry. "Valid" means it contained a txid to the above address, and contains valid data for the estimate. "Correct" means the actual value (of the 20 day SMA) on Nov 30th 2016 must be within the range you entered. "Narrowest" is defined as the lowest value of "upper bound - lower bound" of all "correct" ranges submitted.
* Mutiple winners: In case there is more than one winning entry (i.e. correct, and same width of estimate) the prize will be split among all such entries. In case no winner can be determined (because no entry is "correct"), the prize and total value of the participation transactions will be donated to a charity of my choice.
* Usage of the participation transaction: The entire value of all txs sent to the address above will be added to the prize money, either to be paid out to the winner(s), or to be donated to a charity (in case no winner can be determined).
* Entry details: Entries must be submitted by the above Google docs form. During the submission period, participants will not be able to see the other participants entries, to avoid entry coordination. After the submission deadline (November 30th 2015), I will open the above form, allowing everybody to see all other entries. Since I am able to see all entries at any point, I will not participate myself in the game.
Summary
(1) Submit your prediction for the bitcoin price (compared to a 20 day simple moving average) on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, via this form, no later than November 30th 2015. To participate, please include a txid of a transaction to 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC.
(2) ...
(3) Profit! (if you win)
How about another prediction contest? Last time I ran one of these, the prediction horizon was 90 days. This time, let's make it a year from now!
Participation is free, but I'd kindly ask you to send a tx of any value (one satoshi even, if you manage to get it through) to the address below, to confirm that you're a network user. In return, I pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC (or $100 in BTC, by my choice) to the winner of this contest.
Entries are submitted hidden through a form, but will be made public at the end of the submission period. Details follow below. If you're not a fan of long explanations, skip to the summary (in red) at the end of this post.
Feeling interested?
The rules
How to participate:
* Submit your entry by November 30th 2015, 23:59 UTC.
* To do so, open up this form on Google Docs: November 2015 to November 2016 Bitcoin Price Prediction Contest
* Enter your forum name in the first field, and your interval estimate for the price per bitcoin in USD, evaluated against the value of a 20 day SMA on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, in the third and fourth field. For example: Entering 1 (USD) in the "lower bound" field, 1,000,000 (USD) in the "upper bound" field, is interpreted as: "The USD value of one bitcoin (understood as the value of a 20 day SMA) on Bitstamp on November 30th 2016 will be between $1 and $1,000,000". Got it?
* Send a Bitcoin transaction -- any value will do, no matter how small -- to this address under my control: 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC
* Enter the txid of your transaction in the second field of the above Google form. Press 'Submit'. Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)... if your estimate is the winning entry, that is.
Details:
* Prize: I hereby pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC, or $100 in BTC, to the winner of this contest. Which of the two values will be the prize is my own choice at the time the contest ends. In addition, the value of all participation transactions will be sent to the winner(s) as well.
* Entries: As a contest entry, you are asked to submit a price range, e.g. $100 to $10,000. You are free to make this range as wide or as narrow as you wish. If you prefer to enter a point estimate, simply enter the same value in both fields (the "lower" and "upper" field). Both values must be integers, and the "lower bound" value must be smaller (or equal) to the "upper bound" value.
* Price as moving average: These two values are compared to the value of a 20 day simple moving average over USD per BTC on Bitstamp at the end of November 30th 2016. The correct value, i.e. the value of 20 day SMA upon daily close on November 30th 2016, is determined on bitcoinwisdom.com.
* Source of correct value: In case either Bitstamp or bitcoinwisdom is dysfunct by the evaluation deadline (November 2016), or it is generally agreed that one or both of these sources do not accurately reflect the price per bitcoin anymore, I will chose an alternative exchange and/or charting site that represents the "gold standard" at that time.
* Winner determination: The winner of this contest is determined as the narrowest correct valid entry. "Valid" means it contained a txid to the above address, and contains valid data for the estimate. "Correct" means the actual value (of the 20 day SMA) on Nov 30th 2016 must be within the range you entered. "Narrowest" is defined as the lowest value of "upper bound - lower bound" of all "correct" ranges submitted.
* Mutiple winners: In case there is more than one winning entry (i.e. correct, and same width of estimate) the prize will be split among all such entries. In case no winner can be determined (because no entry is "correct"), the prize and total value of the participation transactions will be donated to a charity of my choice.
* Usage of the participation transaction: The entire value of all txs sent to the address above will be added to the prize money, either to be paid out to the winner(s), or to be donated to a charity (in case no winner can be determined).
* Entry details: Entries must be submitted by the above Google docs form. During the submission period, participants will not be able to see the other participants entries, to avoid entry coordination. After the submission deadline (November 30th 2015), I will open the above form, allowing everybody to see all other entries. Since I am able to see all entries at any point, I will not participate myself in the game.
Summary
(1) Submit your prediction for the bitcoin price (compared to a 20 day simple moving average) on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, via this form, no later than November 30th 2015. To participate, please include a txid of a transaction to 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC.
(2) ...
(3) Profit! (if you win)
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