Topic: Alright , Time to Dump or Time to Buy ? - page 2. (Read 5679 times)
My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.
time to buy, like always
So, are you saying that you always buy bitcoins, no matter what the price is 
Then how you earn profit when you buy Bitcoin at high prices.
i think its time to buy!
the rate is going down, and i think next month the rate will be more advantageous
the rate is going down, and i think next month the rate will be more advantageous
time to buy, like always
Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...
Even if all other factors had been kept constant
I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins
I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).
If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).
I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.
I've thought about this (though toward doges). Well, it is possible to write a routine that would keep tract of bitcoin wallets (through the blockchain). I abandoned this idea, since the efficiency (accuracy) of price prediction (which is what evidently is your aim) would be no better than that of flipping a coin (actually, even less)...
In short, you are wasting your time
Not necessarly price prediction, i`m not that interested in bitcoin speculation, since I wont really be selling my bitcoins. In worst case scenario I would move it into altcoins ,but not back to fiat.
Maybe you looked at low timeframes (hourly,daily) , bitcoin has little sample of data, and the trading noise is big, your signal-to-noise ratio is small so you want to look at larger timeframes.
I used to research forex trading bots, but then I gave up the idea, because I realized that financial markets can only be predicted in larger than 1 year timeframes, and the ROI is small ( so forex get-rich-quick trading bots are most likely scams), not in 1 minute charts or silly stuff like that.
With bitcoin you have more data, and accurate data (not central bank lies), so it is possible. Yet we have only 6 year history, so its not viable now.
Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...
Even if all other factors had been kept constant
I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins
I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).
If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).
I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.
I've thought about this (though toward doges). Well, it is possible to write a routine that would keep tract of bitcoin wallets (through the blockchain). I abandoned this idea, since the efficiency (accuracy) of price prediction (which is what evidently is your aim) would be no better than that of flipping a coin (actually, even less)...
In short, you are wasting your time
Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...
Even if all other factors had been kept constant
I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins
I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).
If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).
I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]
As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...
The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation
Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.
Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.
I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.
This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...
It is enough to look at the price chart
Well maybe the traders don't price it in. Do the miners usually dump the coins right after they mine it? (from my experience they do)
If they do, then the price decreases from newly mined coins. If they just hoard it, then it doesn't.
Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...
Even if all other factors had been kept constant
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]
As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...
The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation
Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.
Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.
I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.
This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...
It is enough to look at the price chart
Well maybe the traders don't price it in. Do the miners usually dump the coins right after they mine it? (from my experience they do)
If they do, then the price decreases from newly mined coins. If they just hoard it, then it doesn't.
I guess its the same bubble container (as I call it) as with fiat is the stock & bond market. Hoarding sucks up inflation and it trickles down in smaller fractions, when somebody sells small portions of their assets. (as stock market correction vs stock market crash)
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]
As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...
The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation
Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.
Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.
I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.
This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...
It is enough to look at the price chart
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]
As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...
The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation
Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.
Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.
I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.
Alright guys ,
the situation right now is not the best situation we ever had to be honest , I bet that this is because of the BitcoinXt and investors are afraid on their money and why not they have all the right for that right ?. What do you guys think people should do right now dump and just save their selfs since they can ? or simply buy right now because it's not going anywhere lower then this .
the situation right now is not the best situation we ever had to be honest , I bet that this is because of the BitcoinXt and investors are afraid on their money and why not they have all the right for that right ?. What do you guys think people should do right now dump and just save their selfs since they can ? or simply buy right now because it's not going anywhere lower then this .
I am buying. Every payday, since last year. I believe in Bitcoin.
If someone gives me two options, then I'll pick the option to buy more bitcoins.
And after this XT drama will be over around January 2016,the prices will go up and also I'll have accumulated much coins till then android with low prices, so then I'll get much more profit.
And after this XT drama will be over around January 2016,the prices will go up and also I'll have accumulated much coins till then android with low prices, so then I'll get much more profit.
i think this time to buy much more,
cause the value of bitcoin have down.
so, its time to buy.
cause the value of bitcoin have down.
so, its time to buy.
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]
As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...
The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation
In short, a pure increase of 10,2247(4782923whatever)% in the amount of coins mined up to date says nothing per se
It's not up to date, it's a 10.2247% inflation in the past 365 days, as in the monetary base of bitcoin has grown 10.2247% in the last 365 days.
But then you simply can't correctly measure the influence your monetary inflation has on Bitcoin value (its market price), if it has nothing to do with coins burned or stashed...
It implies that it's value / coin has decreased by that amount too, technically speaking, it depends on how effectively the market prices in inflation
(there is no central bank induced asset bubble here, so the trickledown of monetary inflation in price should be instantaneous here)
Thus monetary inflation = price inflation , in a free market.
So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too!
The problem IMO is that there is too much supply of BTC with mining.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Don't mislead people, 365 day inflation rate is exactly : 10,2247%
While the Y-O-Y inflation from january is about ~9%
It's nowhere near 15%.
I guess the effective inflation (the increase of coins in actual circulation) is higher than that. You don't take into account the number of coins irrevocably lost by now as well as coins never leaving the wallets they sit in...
Yes by inflation I mean the monetary inflation, because in a free market monetary inflation = price inflation (except when other turbulence disturbs the price). In the fiat world its not the same as giant printed money asset bubbles contain the inflation.
So by monetary inflation I mean the amount that gets minted in a 365 day period , or subsequently Y-O-Y basis. I like the 365 day period (moving average) because its a more dynamic measure than the YoY method.
Of course I dont take into account the number of coins lost because it has nothing to do with it, I only measure what gets minted. What gets lost is hard to prove, and its probably not that much to be relevant.
But then you simply can't correctly measure the influence your monetary inflation has on Bitcoin value (its market price), if it has nothing to do with coins burned or stashed...
In short, a pure increase of 10,2247(4782923whatever)% in the amount of coins mined up to date says nothing per se
The problem IMO is that there is too much supply of BTC with mining.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Don't mislead people, 365 day inflation rate is exactly : 10,2247%
While the Y-O-Y inflation from january is about ~9%
It's nowhere near 15%.
I guess the effective inflation (the increase of coins in actual circulation) is higher than that. You don't take into account the number of coins irrevocably lost by now as well as coins never leaving the wallets they sit in...
Yes by inflation I mean the monetary inflation, because in a free market monetary inflation = price inflation (except when other turbulence disturbs the price). In the fiat world its not the same as giant printed money asset bubbles contain the inflation.
So by monetary inflation I mean the amount that gets minted in a 365 day period , or subsequently Y-O-Y basis. I like the 365 day period (moving average) because its a more dynamic measure than the YoY method.
Of course I dont take into account the number of coins lost because it has nothing to do with it, I only measure what gets minted. What gets lost is hard to prove, and its probably not that much to be relevant.
The problem IMO is that there is too much supply of BTC with mining.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Bitcoin will only gain value when this supply is lower.
It has an annual inflation of ~15% at this moment.
Don't mislead people, 365 day inflation rate is exactly : 10,2247%
While the Y-O-Y inflation from january is about ~9%
It's nowhere near 15%.
I guess the effective inflation (the increase of coins in actual circulation) is higher than that. You don't take into account the number of coins irrevocably lost by now as well as coins never leaving the wallets they sit in...
Time to buy I guess. It will hold itself on to $200 and will recover gradually. The main reason I see why the price is going down is because of XT vs Core drama happening right now. Traders love to use those to maximize their profits, you know. 
yes, the cryptocurrency market is very sensitive and because of its volatility of the currency, it is often an issue and scares new investors. I don't know how long the xt vs core issue will go on, but the longer it does, more damage to the image and authenticity of bitcoin as people will question and confuse each other, worst case scenario if xt becomes a new coin, then I don't think btc will live long
It already did, look the price it was 197-200 € all afternoon. Now its about 203€ still weak but it will go higher from this.
I guess the reaction now is priced in. And look its the XT version with only 11% support, imagine if it would be widespread, the price would hit 50$
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