I had lot of friends saying "omg you are so lucky, we missed this bitcoin train" - so if you have some friends like I have, please tell them now may be one of the latest chances to get in for low prices.
honestly, anytime below 300 USD is time to buy and now it is even cheaper.)
you can never be sure, but i do think it's likely the price in 1 year will be at least over $200.
the chances of it dropping below $200 are extremely low, the chances of it going higher than $200 are pretty high.
It seems like a fairly safe investment.