Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.
When will that be ?
By the way, I think it's very uncool you have taken the names of one of Bitcoins greatest heroes who has passed away. Have some respect man.
Topic: Analysis - page 205. (Read 941563 times)
When will that be ?
By the way, I think it's very uncool you have taken the names of one of Bitcoins greatest heroes who has passed away. Have some respect man.
Channel needs to break on logarithmic chart too I think.
Local downtrend channel breaking
(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
283 - tick (ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
294 - tick
If we break $315 substantially (maybe to $350) and stay there for a day or two, I'm getting excited. A drop afterwards wouldn't worry me then, since we'd have built a higher high marking a nice uptrend starting at $166.
If we don't break $315 I'm not worried either, but then it'd look like we'll be building a pretty large triangle that can draw out for a long time (months)
A lot of those supposed resistance levels dont seem very relevant anymore.
As far as real strong resistance levels go, the low 300s is a major level both from the old 315 high, the downtrend line (wherever it is), etc. Other than that I see 475 (gentlemen rally), 680 (june rally), and all time high as major points, and thats about it. Maybe the 995 high after the initial drop.
Of all those, only breaking the downtrend line is really major, imo.
Bitcoin isnt like other things. When bitcoin is in a true bull phase, its going to crash through every resistance level and go to absurd heights, and resistance is meaningless. When its done, the corrections are incredibly violent, as we saw in 2011, and in 2014. The only level that REALLY matters is the one where the trendline is. Right now that means the line in the low to mid 300s that we have to cross to break out of this bear.
As far as real strong resistance levels go, the low 300s is a major level both from the old 315 high, the downtrend line (wherever it is), etc. Other than that I see 475 (gentlemen rally), 680 (june rally), and all time high as major points, and thats about it. Maybe the 995 high after the initial drop.
Of all those, only breaking the downtrend line is really major, imo.
Bitcoin isnt like other things. When bitcoin is in a true bull phase, its going to crash through every resistance level and go to absurd heights, and resistance is meaningless. When its done, the corrections are incredibly violent, as we saw in 2011, and in 2014. The only level that REALLY matters is the one where the trendline is. Right now that means the line in the low to mid 300s that we have to cross to break out of this bear.
Here are the levels of resistance according to one market analysis firm.
(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)
283 - tick (i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)
Here are the levels of resistance according to one market analysis firm.
(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)
(i) 283 $ (medium, OTE short ss, local breakdown point)
(ii) 294 $ (strong, downtrend and triangle resistance, local high)
(iii) 303.33 $ (medium, pivot point, Fib)
(iv) 322 $ (medium, trendline and Fibonacci resistance)
(v) 334 $ (weak, previous support and breakout point, Fib level)
(vi) 365 (weak, dymanic and Fib)
(vii) 384 $ (medium, Fib level and old high)
(viii) 411 $ (weak)
(ix) 454 $ (strong, PayPal high)
(x) 500 $ (weak, recent high)
(xi) 534 $ (strong, old support)
(xii) 595 $ (weak, spike high)
(xiii) 627 $ (weak, Fib level)
(xiv) 658 $ (medium, recent high)
(xv) 685 $ (strong, recent failure)
(xvi) 710 $ (medium, old bear market high)
(xvii) 755 $ (strong, recent spike high)
(xviii) 800 $ (strong, Fib level and historical resistance)
(xix) 995 $ (very strong, bull trap high)
(xx) 1163 $ (VERY strong, ATH)
Looks like we're breaking out... over $300 is a big deal right ?
UPD sorry didn't read correctly your post
Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.
Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/
You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.
Sitting at $330 now, $310 in a month.
But yes I guess yours is valid too.
Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.
Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/
You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.
Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.
Bid sum increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
Bid sum increased a little on chinese exchanges. Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).
That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
small family quarrel - nothing special 
watching bitcoin price. it accelerates
watching bitcoin price. it accelerates
Damn Americans stirring up shit all over the world.
Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe
"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration." o_O
Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe
"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration." o_O
Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe
One of the strangest moments I had on this forum was when luc posted something like "Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration." o_O
(EDIT) Also: your latest detailed posts are much appreciated. Interesting especially because of the widespread uncertainty if the bottom is in or not (which I guess you technically leave open as a question, depending on how we react to the expected 300s resistance - assuming we get there
)
(EDIT) Also: your latest detailed posts are much appreciated. Interesting especially because of the widespread uncertainty if the bottom is in or not (which I guess you technically leave open as a question, depending on how we react to the expected 300s resistance - assuming we get there
)
Log chart scale works buggy in SierraChart under Linux lol 
@masterluc, I am curious why you use a linear chart to determine a break out of the falling wedge. Wouldn't a log chart be better? I have to admit I learned a lot from your analysis, like others I never could have imagined the bear market to last this long but you correctly predicted it. You deserve respect for that. It helped me understand market cycles better and see things in a larger perspective. Also I agree there is a chance that we could still be in an abc correction in which case we will still see lower lows after hitting 350-450 area. I am definitely hedging myself against that possibility but my main bet is on that we're seeing the start of a new bullish cycle right now.
A long way back is fine by me. Thanks for excellent analysis, masterluc. I highly doubted your call of > 1 year bear trend back at the ATH. Now that it is confirmed, I am very impressed.
Same here. I doubted your call yet it has turned out to be correct. I don't even daytrade yet I enjoy your analysis immensely. Respect!
A long way back is fine by me. Thanks for excellent analysis, masterluc. I highly doubted your call of > 1 year bear trend back at the ATH. Now that it is confirmed, I am very impressed.
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