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Topic: Analysis - page 311. (Read 941563 times)

newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 04:38:04 AM

Maybe 'will' was a bit to strong. But: It was a top, there was a correction, since bitcoin started trading those wave 3 -> 4 corrections have been 95% wedges of this exact kind. Its like bitcoin love wedges when its rallying. It takes a lot of guts to make such a prediction on a public forum. I'm really putting my head out there for ridicule. Lets see how it plays out. If the bullmaket is strong enough it wont even do the second bounce, it will just penetrate the trend line and continue.

I was just wondering what bitcoin corrections are most likely.

http://www.acrotec.com/elliottwave/ew5.jpg

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics_images/fig18.gif

In my experience bitcoin 'loves' those Ascending Triangles and Contracting Symmetrical Triangles. They are present on all scales and occur extremely often, and have done so from the very start.

It was masterluc and his (I think) unorthodox way of drawing the 4th wave correction in his elliot wave analysis that made me aware of just how often these patterns occur. It may be so simple that bitcoin is in a persistent long-term bull market and that this continuation pattern is a natural occurrence in bull markets. We are just so spoilt that get to see them so often.

zby
legendary
Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
December 04, 2013, 04:22:01 AM
Yes, the blue line will create the second bounce
Nostradamus, is that you?

Maybe 'will' was a bit to strong. But: It was a top, there was a correction, since bitcoin started trading those wave 3 -> 4 corrections have been 95% wedges of this exact kind. Its like bitcoin love wedges when its rallying. It takes a lot of guts to make such a prediction on a public forum. I'm really putting my head out there for ridicule. Lets see how it plays out. If the bullmaket is strong enough it wont even do the second bounce, it will just penetrate the trend line and continue.

Wedge is different from triangle - at least use the same terminology as the other people here!
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
December 04, 2013, 04:08:29 AM

Maybe 'will' was a bit to strong. But: It was a top, there was a correction, since bitcoin started trading those wave 3 -> 4 corrections have been 95% wedges of this exact kind. Its like bitcoin love wedges when its rallying. It takes a lot of guts to make such a prediction on a public forum. I'm really putting my head out there for ridicule. Lets see how it plays out. If the bullmaket is strong enough it wont even do the second bounce, it will just penetrate the trend line and continue.

I was just wondering what bitcoin corrections are most likely.



newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 03:57:27 AM
Yes, the blue line will create the second bounce
Nostradamus, is that you?

Maybe 'will' was a bit to strong. But: It was a top, there was a correction, since bitcoin started trading those wave 3 -> 4 corrections have been 95% wedges of this exact kind. Its like bitcoin love wedges when its rallying. It takes a lot of guts to make such a prediction on a public forum. I'm really putting my head out there for ridicule. Lets see how it plays out. If the bullmaket is strong enough it wont even do the second bounce, it will just penetrate the trend line and continue.
newbie
Activity: 336
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 03:25:24 AM
Yes, the blue line will create the second bounce
Nostradamus, is that you?
newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 03:03:13 AM
You drew the lower line with only one price point touching it?

Yes, the blue line will create the second bounce, there might even be a third if its an ABCDE thing.
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
December 04, 2013, 01:53:34 AM
You drew the lower line with only one price point touching it?
newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 12:00:31 AM
The wedge that is forming is a continuation pattern. Rally will continue.

https://i.imgur.com/8PB0fWk.jpg

http://www.trending123.com/media/free/patterns/b4a50500.png
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
December 03, 2013, 09:37:48 PM
Well, this time I won't agree with him. He was bull 3-4 days ago and now suggests that Sheepmarket theft will cause price to go down.

That's obvious bullshit as there's no single chance that guy will start selling his coins for fiat anytime soon. He'd be busted in no time.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
December 03, 2013, 09:08:32 PM
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
December 03, 2013, 08:24:58 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/SheepMarketplace/

96000 btc stolen =) Good luck bulls

Panic Selling incoming from weak hands I guess Smiley

Then you are definition of full retard and I mean it. If anyone on this forum has reliable analysis track record, it´s Masterluc.
While I tend to agree with lucif I'm not sure he has the necessary facts on this to draw such an assumption.

Those 96k could end up in cold storage for half a century for all we know. The only thing that's for sure is that they won't be sold all at once, unless of course lucas is on to something and this guy just wants to watch the world burn  Grin
full member
Activity: 189
Merit: 100
Hello
December 03, 2013, 08:20:28 PM
Why would he even need to cash out?  What prevents them from being tumbled through several tumblers, in much smaller amounts, and forwarded to different exchanges registered under different fake aliases and selling them all and recouping all "new" coins from rebuying and reconsolidating the "winnings" into smaller wallets.  It does not seem so far fetched to me that these will make it to several exchanges eventually one way  or the other.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
December 03, 2013, 08:17:31 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/SheepMarketplace/

96000 btc stolen =) Good luck bulls

Panic Selling incoming from weak hands I guess Smiley

Then you are definition of full retard and I mean it. If anyone on this forum has reliable analysis track record, it´s Masterluc.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
December 03, 2013, 08:06:18 PM
3) the operator of sheep market was an amateur. He has been doxed. Probably he will end up behind bars soon, and in any case he will have a hard time cashing out the coins. Look at how he is desperately trying to launder them: it's pathetic and amateurish, you just cannot launder 100k coins as he is trying to do because there aren't another 100k from other users to mix you coins with. Either he cashes out in small chunks from localbitcoins, either he is caught very soon.

What if he boldly sell them on an exchange? Who's gonna stop it? Who will sue him?
And why should he be in any hurry to dump?

At what exchange will he sell them ? How many exchanges can handle 96k coins. ... and withdrawn $$
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
December 03, 2013, 04:19:56 PM
I sometimes wonder. Are people really so stupid, or is this just disguise.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
December 03, 2013, 04:10:13 PM
3) the operator of sheep market was an amateur. He has been doxed. Probably he will end up behind bars soon, and in any case he will have a hard time cashing out the coins. Look at how he is desperately trying to launder them: it's pathetic and amateurish, you just cannot launder 100k coins as he is trying to do because there aren't another 100k from other users to mix you coins with. Either he cashes out in small chunks from localbitcoins, either he is caught very soon.

What if he boldly sell them on an exchange? Who's gonna stop it? Who will sue him?
And why should he be in any hurry to dump?

Nobody will sue them, LE will arrest him with similar charges as per DPR. They already have its full dox.

If he boldly sell the coins on an exchange he will get caught immediately after.. All kinds of AML/KYC procedures are triggered at both the exchange and bank level when somebody tryies to cash out dozens of millions quickly. Bitcoin liquidity is still a joke.

Secondly, just look at the guys Facebook and at the amateurish mistakes he made leading to his dox. Look at how ridiculously badly coded was the SMP. And finally, amuse yourself watching how the guy is desperately trying to tumble the coins, failing hard because he is anxiously trying to tumble all of them instead of leaving the big stash in a few addresses and tumbling just a few hundreds every day (the only way to effectively launder such an amount). He is mixing his own coins over and over, that is very telling - he is an amateur and he is anxious.

If I knew I would get caught anyway I would dump them just to see the world burn.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 03, 2013, 04:06:05 PM
3) the operator of sheep market was an amateur. He has been doxed. Probably he will end up behind bars soon, and in any case he will have a hard time cashing out the coins. Look at how he is desperately trying to launder them: it's pathetic and amateurish, you just cannot launder 100k coins as he is trying to do because there aren't another 100k from other users to mix you coins with. Either he cashes out in small chunks from localbitcoins, either he is caught very soon.

What if he boldly sell them on an exchange? Who's gonna stop it? Who will sue him?
And why should he be in any hurry to dump?

Nobody will sue them, LE will arrest him with similar charges as per DPR. They already have its full dox.

If he boldly sell the coins on an exchange he will get caught immediately after.. All kinds of AML/KYC procedures are triggered at both the exchange and bank level when somebody tryies to cash out dozens of millions quickly. Bitcoin liquidity is still a joke.

Secondly, just look at the guys Facebook and at the amateurish mistakes he made leading to his dox. Look at how ridiculously badly coded was the SMP. And finally, amuse yourself watching how the guy is desperately trying to tumble the coins, failing hard because he is anxiously trying to tumble all of them instead of leaving the big stash in a few addresses and tumbling just a few hundreds every day (the only way to effectively launder such an amount). He is mixing his own coins over and over, that is very telling - he is an amateur and he is anxious.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
December 03, 2013, 03:57:56 PM
3) the operator of sheep market was an amateur. He has been doxed. Probably he will end up behind bars soon, and in any case he will have a hard time cashing out the coins. Look at how he is desperately trying to launder them: it's pathetic and amateurish, you just cannot launder 100k coins as he is trying to do because there aren't another 100k from other users to mix you coins with. Either he cashes out in small chunks from localbitcoins, either he is caught very soon.

What if he boldly sell them on an exchange? Who's gonna stop it? Who will sue him?
And why should he be in any hurry to dump?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 03, 2013, 03:43:17 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/SheepMarketplace/

96000 btc stolen =) Good luck bulls

At least 96k. There are other suspicious addresses (many of them), but seems highly unlikely that that market could have had such a massive volume (+200k coins), especially considering that SR had only 27k in users funds when it was shut down. Nevertheless:

1) after the media attention to SR the number of black market usets is growing exponentially. BMR is closing because it cannot handle the amount of traffic, in fact there are real concerns about Tor not being able to scale in order to accommodate services with such a huge amount of users.

2) the genie is out of the bottle. Some thought that after SR the "black market use" of Bitcoin was going to disappear. They were delusional. In fact, smart contracts and other applications of the block chains are a killer app for the black market. This is growing, day by day. The insane amount of BTC stolen by such an amateur operation as sheep market is very telling. Compare that to the amount of coins stolen from inputs.io or GLBS. Probably not even Gox is holding 100k BTC of it's users at this moment. Sheep market did.

3) the operator of sheep market was an amateur. He has been doxed. Probably he will end up behind bars soon, and in any case he will have a hard time cashing out the coins. Look at how he is desperately trying to launder them: it's pathetic and amateurish, you just cannot launder 100k coins as he is trying to do because there aren't another 100k from other users to mix you coins with. Either he cashes out in small chunks from localbitcoins, either he is caught very soon.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
December 03, 2013, 03:25:52 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/SheepMarketplace/

96000 btc stolen =) Good luck bulls

You are telling us you went full bear? Just asking Grin
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