Topic: Analysis - page 313. (Read 941563 times)

It is my conviction that when we see at least two+ consecutive days from the current rally make it to the top 10 differentials list, the top is in.

It has been the case the last few bubbles and it will probably be the case again.

I wonder if there is an indicator for the differential from the previous day.


(from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.140)
Differential from previous day:
 1. 2011-02-01 43.14%
 2. 2010-07-18 37.09%
 3. 2011-06-08 36.92%
 4. 2013-04-17 30.52%
 5. 2010-10-25 29.87%
 6. 2011-06-03 29.33%
 7. 2013-04-13 28.80%
 8. 2011-05-13 28.40%
 9. 2011-04-29 27.50%
10. 2010-07-19 27.50%


Top spotting is actually quite easy. StochRSI, AO, Fisher, MACD, E waves will all line up, and forum posts will have exclamation marks. Lots of exclamation marks.

So far your technical analysis and charts are my favorite on the forum. I don't make or print charts, but if I did they would normally concur with yours.

Right now though is an interesting time. Because when I look at the charts they look really overbought. But they dont feel overbought to me. In fact, they feel, since the last correction pretty damn stable. Bitstamp for instance has had steady growth, China seems to be keeping its impulses to skyrocket parabolic in control by correcting itself at every upswing. Gox is the only exchange that seems to be trying to exhaust itself, but there is always that added buying pressure there.

I have been thinking 10k (actually somewhere above 9k) would be the next big correction point in China. However, I had kinda of assumed they would get there with a parabolic swing, setting up another big correction. However, that is looking less and less likely.

Although my eyes do not want to believe it for some reason, I still think there is a strong emotional flavor to a large correction or crash. And we just aren't there yet. In fact, it doesn't even feel close. There are way to many bears and way too much trepidation in the market right now - despite the growth. We need some real over confidence to move into some giant swings to get something big to the downside. And we are talking about some potentially major upside moves.

However, in the back of my mind, I must admit being concerned about some piece of bad news coming out from somewhere. I think the market is fragile and MAY just be waiting for a catalyst to go into bear mode. Bear modes are good things - they allow for the eco-system to catch up with the market speculation and thus make bitcoin stronger in the process.

I think the next bear mode may come from some bad news. Otherwise we might fly up to $2500-$3000 before we go into a bear market again.

We'll see.

I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

Oh great master, I humbly ask for your guidance regarding the top of this rally. Are you certain about your 10k CNY/BTC count? Because looking at previous bubbles (2011 and April 2013) wave 5 has consistently taken the price a bit more than double the top of wave 3. Applying that logic to this bubble would mean a top of around 15k CNY. Do you think there's a possibility of us going that far?

Because you expect a interim top at that point, or because you expect a breakout to the upside?

We're not ready for mainstream yet, but agree, this bubble is far from over.

This ^. But I could care less about MTGOX prices.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD

Unlikely, only in a prolonged Bitcoin bear market.

Ideally below $1.

LTC seems ripe to pop.

Yeah I've read the posts. But I dont think everyone who is buying a/o is thinking about buying litecoins will have also read them.

http://blog.oleganza.com/post/68246062759/arguments-for-litecoin-are-fraudulent

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1rmwnx/the_cryptowar_begins_and_why_you_should_pay/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1rjv6l/my_response_to_a_litecoin_advocate/

I agree, but then again I've been wrong so far about litecoin. I think it has to do with the psychology of paying 4 digits for something. I dont think we will see litecoin fade until people starting using something smaller like bits.

I think the whole litecoin capitalization will run back into bitcoin soon pumping another price jump =)

BTCe was overbought for nearly a whole day at almost parity with bitstamp. In the past week or so there has generally been a $40-80 gap between bitstamp and btce.

[edit] actually, now that im looking at bitcoincharts, the big 3 USD exchanges are all overbought. the REALLY weird part is that BTCe reacted first. the other 2 havent reacted yet, and are following btcchina.

[edit2] even weirder, it looks like the people that dumped btc on btce escaped into litecoin... boy do i regret getting out of LTC...

The price is not even halfway to top. This seems clear, there is not even need for technicals. This time we are going mainstream for REAL and big money wants in. I won't surprise for the interim top being +$2,500 - and 5 figures in the next 12/24 months.

Bitcoin is steadily arriving to its tipping point: it either succeeds or becomes one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history.

Whats the reason for this discrepance?

Also expirenced traders could see a pronounced bull pennant with target around 10000 CNY/BTC

Well I decided to verify my count against btcchina.... And saw the same picture. According to this, we are still in extension of [3] of historical 5.

Probably this is nuts, but count says the price didn't completed even half way to top.

Notice that rising volume confirms trend strength.