Author

Topic: Analysis - page 313. (Read 941596 times)

newbie
Activity: 18
Merit: 0
November 29, 2013, 07:07:34 PM
I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

It is my conviction that when we see at least two+ consecutive days from the current rally make it to the top 10 differentials list, the top is in.

It has been the case the last few bubbles and it will probably be the case again.

I wonder if there is an indicator for the differential from the previous day.


(from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.140)
Differential from previous day:
 1. 2011-02-01 43.14%
 2. 2010-07-18 37.09%
 3. 2011-06-08 36.92%
 4. 2013-04-17 30.52%
 5. 2010-10-25 29.87%
 6. 2011-06-03 29.33%
 7. 2013-04-13 28.80%
 8. 2011-05-13 28.40%
 9. 2011-04-29 27.50%
10. 2010-07-19 27.50%


Top spotting is actually quite easy. StochRSI, AO, Fisher, MACD, E waves will all line up, and forum posts will have exclamation marks. Lots of exclamation marks.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
November 29, 2013, 06:03:29 PM
I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.

So far your technical analysis and charts are my favorite on the forum. I don't make or print charts, but if I did they would normally concur with yours.

Right now though is an interesting time. Because when I look at the charts they look really overbought. But they dont feel overbought to me. In fact, they feel, since the last correction pretty damn stable. Bitstamp for instance has had steady growth, China seems to be keeping its impulses to skyrocket parabolic in control by correcting itself at every upswing. Gox is the only exchange that seems to be trying to exhaust itself, but there is always that added buying pressure there.

I have been thinking 10k (actually somewhere above 9k) would be the next big correction point in China. However, I had kinda of assumed they would get there with a parabolic swing, setting up another big correction. However, that is looking less and less likely.

Although my eyes do not want to believe it for some reason, I still think there is a strong emotional flavor to a large correction or crash. And we just aren't there yet. In fact, it doesn't even feel close. There are way to many bears and way too much trepidation in the market right now - despite the growth. We need some real over confidence to move into some giant swings to get something big to the downside. And we are talking about some potentially major upside moves.

However, in the back of my mind, I must admit being concerned about some piece of bad news coming out from somewhere. I think the market is fragile and MAY just be waiting for a catalyst to go into bear mode. Bear modes are good things - they allow for the eco-system to catch up with the market speculation and thus make bitcoin stronger in the process.

I think the next bear mode may come from some bad news. Otherwise we might fly up to $2500-$3000 before we go into a bear market again.

We'll see.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
November 29, 2013, 05:35:47 PM
I dunno the top. I'm not a master Yoda =) Usually I see the signs of top in technicals (but actual top of course will be some time later signs). Those signs still absent.

For example, some time ago I said current candle is RIP. And price dump was two days later.
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
November 29, 2013, 12:41:02 PM
Oh great master, I humbly ask for your guidance regarding the top of this rally. Are you certain about your 10k CNY/BTC count? Because looking at previous bubbles (2011 and April 2013) wave 5 has consistently taken the price a bit more than double the top of wave 3. Applying that logic to this bubble would mean a top of around 15k CNY. Do you think there's a possibility of us going that far?
legendary
Activity: 1291
Merit: 1000
November 29, 2013, 08:44:53 AM
I said watching gold parity.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD

Because you expect a interim top at that point, or because you expect a breakout to the upside?
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
November 29, 2013, 02:21:03 AM
The price is not even halfway to top. This seems clear, there is not even need for technicals. This time we are going mainstream for REAL and big money wants in. I won't surprise for the interim top being +$2,500 - and 5 figures in the next 12/24 months.

Bitcoin is steadily arriving to its tipping point: it either succeeds or becomes one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history.

We're not ready for mainstream yet, but agree, this bubble is far from over.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
November 29, 2013, 02:03:38 AM
I said watching gold parity.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD

This ^. But I could care less about MTGOX prices.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
November 29, 2013, 01:16:16 AM
I said watching gold parity.

Current gold prices:
7549.96 CNY
1241.70 USD
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
November 28, 2013, 11:37:01 AM

Unlikely, only in a prolonged Bitcoin bear market.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
November 28, 2013, 11:32:46 AM
LTC seems ripe to pop.

Ideally below $1.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
November 28, 2013, 11:26:55 AM
LTC seems ripe to pop.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
November 28, 2013, 10:49:41 AM
[edit2] even weirder, it looks like the people that dumped btc on btce escaped into litecoin... boy do i regret getting out of LTC...
I think the whole litecoin capitalization will run back into bitcoin soon pumping another price jump =)

I agree, but then again I've been wrong so far about litecoin. I think it has to do with the psychology of paying 4 digits for something. I dont think we will see litecoin fade until people starting using something smaller like bits.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
November 28, 2013, 06:33:29 AM
[edit2] even weirder, it looks like the people that dumped btc on btce escaped into litecoin... boy do i regret getting out of LTC...
I think the whole litecoin capitalization will run back into bitcoin soon pumping another price jump =)
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
November 28, 2013, 04:43:42 AM
Whats the reason for this discrepance?

(image of btcchina vs btce)


BTCe was overbought for nearly a whole day at almost parity with bitstamp. In the past week or so there has generally been a $40-80 gap between bitstamp and btce.

[edit] actually, now that im looking at bitcoincharts, the big 3 USD exchanges are all overbought. the REALLY weird part is that BTCe reacted first. the other 2 havent reacted yet, and are following btcchina.

[edit2] even weirder, it looks like the people that dumped btc on btce escaped into litecoin... boy do i regret getting out of LTC...
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
November 28, 2013, 04:40:17 AM
The price is not even halfway to top. This seems clear, there is not even need for technicals. This time we are going mainstream for REAL and big money wants in. I won't surprise for the interim top being +$2,500 - and 5 figures in the next 12/24 months.

Bitcoin is steadily arriving to its tipping point: it either succeeds or becomes one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history.
legendary
Activity: 1017
Merit: 1003
VIS ET LIBERTAS
November 28, 2013, 04:11:28 AM
Whats the reason for this discrepance?

legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
November 28, 2013, 03:57:57 AM
Also expirenced traders could see a pronounced bull pennant with target around 10000 CNY/BTC


legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
November 28, 2013, 03:39:57 AM
Well I decided to verify my count against btcchina.... And saw the same picture. According to this, we are still in extension of [3] of historical 5.

Probably this is nuts, but count says the price didn't completed even half way to top.

Notice that rising volume confirms trend strength.

Jump to: