Topic: Analysis - page 38. (Read 941579 times)
what does the new update mean??
Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/7Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!
Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?
So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.
I've heard that markets trend 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time, they chop and consolidate. In my experience that's correct. With that in mind, "up, down, or sideways" is the best approach until the market has decisively trapped either bulls or bears on the wrong side of a consolidation. Humans tend to hold through (and double down on) losses, so once a significant trading range is broken, it's worth taking note and following the trend.
We're in the middle of a 2-week consolidation, tight range. There should be gas in the tank once we have a breakout. Fingers crossed for > $7,500 but this is a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise.
So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.
Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
.... and now?
Weekly MACD crossed into negative some days ago, but it's not deep yet. If we'll go sideways for long enough, the 12h MACD will be close to cross into positive and a pump could be attempted.
Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
.... and now?
Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.
...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.
The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...
Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.
I agree. My spidey sense says that we might have found a local bottom or real soon.
...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.
The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...
Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.
Tempting to use some dry powder to scoop up more coins...
God enough for me. I will just patiently await where this is going.
Thanks a lot Gab0!
This lines up with my view, though according to my observations, it actually goes even faster than the analysis above shows. We seem to be in around mid-August 2014 state imho.
Though of course, those charts are only mind games... for me, at least - just a way to entertain oneself during the bear market, as I am not willing to play in it, and don't want to short Bitcoin even if a decline is expected. Not sure how to explain that... to me shorting Bitcoin is unacceptable and is something akin to betrayal. I don't want to play against what I like and what I want to succeed, even if that could be profitable.
Yes, that may be stupid, but that way I feel better
. So the only thing remaining during that market - is to entertain oneself with graphs... Or better - keep oneself busy with unrelated interesting work and forget about crypto for some time.
This lines up with my view, though according to my observations, it actually goes even faster than the analysis above shows. We seem to be in around mid-August 2014 state imho.
Though of course, those charts are only mind games... for me, at least - just a way to entertain oneself during the bear market, as I am not willing to play in it, and don't want to short Bitcoin even if a decline is expected. Not sure how to explain that... to me shorting Bitcoin is unacceptable and is something akin to betrayal. I don't want to play against what I like and what I want to succeed, even if that could be profitable.
Yes, that may be stupid, but that way I feel better
. So the only thing remaining during that market - is to entertain oneself with graphs... Or better - keep oneself busy with unrelated interesting work and forget about crypto for some time. 
I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.
Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.
i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.
Sorry for replying to old post, I am wondering who those people are? I also have such feeling, and would like to read some of their analysis.
Here is someone:
https://twitter.com/CryptoHornHairs/status/972192134915747840
I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.
Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.
i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.
Sorry for replying to old post, I am wondering who those people are? I also have such feeling, and would like to read some of their analysis.
its just so neat, coooool.
There are many more scenario's, but in bear times most though of scenario's are .... surprisingly .... bearish.
I tend to have a more positive outlook and think that, although price can remain in this zone for a long time, the bullishness is still too strong to warrant a brutal and long bear market towards $2k. In an absolute helicopter view, I consider this a long term 'correction' period as a pause until new ATHs.
I tend to have a more positive outlook and think that, although price can remain in this zone for a long time, the bullishness is still too strong to warrant a brutal and long bear market towards $2k. In an absolute helicopter view, I consider this a long term 'correction' period as a pause until new ATHs.
price went way higher then it should have - as always...
imho there are 2 scenarios:
1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...
2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets
imho there are 2 scenarios:
1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...
2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets
Have you ever been right before? Not being a dick - I just can't find any posts where one of your scenarios played out as predicted...
price went way higher then it should have - as always...
imho there are 2 scenarios:
1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...
2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets
imho there are 2 scenarios:
1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...
2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets
How do you see the bearish scenario unfolding,length of bear and potential low?
Jump to: