And now - the sucker's rally - page 3.

anu

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1001

RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Quote from: checkers6676 on April 19, 2013, 11:23:08 AM

So if we are just entering the fundamental investor stage recently, that means we are looking at the wrong side of the chart, and the bubble peak will actually be over $5000 USD Wink

+1

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
(Niels Bohr)

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Bitcoin is fractal. You will see self-similar patterns with any given optics. There are bubbles within bubbles.

checkers6676

full member

Activity: 128

Merit: 100

Here's a fundamental problem with the "classic bubble" chart: It depicts the entrance of fundamental investors as the second phase in the process, but did we ever really see that? I mean, you could define people who entered in the $2 to $32 range as "fundamental investors" based on the timeliness of their buy-in, but REAL fundamental investors have only started entering, based on reports of that Spanish hedge fund for example.

So if we are just entering the fundamental investor stage recently, that means we are looking at the wrong side of the chart, and the bubble peak will actually be over $5000 USD Wink

jmw74

full member

Activity: 236

Merit: 100

Quote from: bitrider on April 19, 2013, 08:45:25 AM

So to here is a more detailed chart that could tend to support OP premise, and perhaps give better language to discuss the tech innovation cycle. According to this chart, you might say we are seeing "Supplier Consolidation and failures" (exchanges collapsing etc, )but feels like a stretch. The correlation with BTC price is anybody's guess.

However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..

You could argue either way. There's been a lot of press lately.

However, for a real bitcoin ecosystem, large pieces are completely missing. There isn't even a good prototype of a hardware wallet yet (or maybe there is but barely). There is no decentralized exchange. Bitcoin ATMs just starting to raise funds. All that points to the bubble being ahead of us, not behind.

I see no reason why it can't be both. There was a bubble just now, and eventually there will be a bigger one.

GotBitCoins

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: anu on April 19, 2013, 11:05:04 AM

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right?

What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't.

The gold price is manipulated like hell.

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.

Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.

It's just that I am not so sure that if and when the price shall drop to say 20$ - if then I will be able to commit to the 5K club - because this is serious money still, and the scenario according to which this whole thing goes down to 10$, down to 5$, 0.5$, zip - is possible.

I keep on thinking about what Satoshi was trying to avoid - he tried to avoid BitCoin to get publicity, he wanted the software to strengthen, he was afraid of the burning match effect and thus when wikileaks asked to adopt BitCoin - he tried to avoid that saying

"The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the
way. I make this appeal to Wikileaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta
community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the
heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."

GotBitCoins

bitcon

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1008

Quote from: johnblaze on April 19, 2013, 02:48:47 AM

why didn't you label your graph like this?

+1 ^this

Dr.Steve

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!

So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.

But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.

my two satoshis.

anu

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1001

RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right?

What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't.

The gold price is manipulated like hell.

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:50:10 AM

200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.

Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.

Le Happy Merchant

hero member

Activity: 634

Merit: 500

Quote from: yvv on April 19, 2013, 06:47:02 AM

Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on April 19, 2013, 02:33:41 AM

I would bet every mBTC I have that Bitcoin never reaches $10. But since you can't prove that something will never happen, I will just say it.

You can still bet. When it hits $10, you lost

Exactly my point, I can lose, but never win. So I won't make that bet.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: ?? on ??

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

+1

nobbynobbynoob

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

Quote from: wobber on April 19, 2013, 10:46:33 AM

Everybody want's it at 10,000 but no hope for 12 months.

Yeah, I can't see $10/mBTC coming within a year, unless it's a pump/dump by Big Finance. I think I might sell in that bubble situation (a real bubble, that is, not this $50/$115/$266 noise). Grin

If bitcoin survives and is successful in a few years' time, effectively answering the questions about its scalability, we may well see something like $10+/mBTC, though.

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 10:46:22 AM

Quote from: superduh on April 19, 2013, 10:24:37 AM

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...

GotBitCoins.

well, if you claim to know a lot i would think that something more along the lines of "MTGOX CRASHED DDOS LAGGED"-
fundamentals of bitcoins didn't change. mtgox and bitcoins are supposed to be different things. i don't think you understand that.
do tell me how a company goes from $0 to billions in a matter of a few years. google went from nothing to billions. no, that makes no sense! must be a bubble. google is worth $1. why don't you go back to trading stocks and commodities that you are so familiar with. why don't you also use the tulip mania graph that every "expert" likes to bring up. because tulips 300 years ago and digital currency are the same exact thing.

GotBitCoins

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: anu on April 19, 2013, 10:16:16 AM

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 02:26:05 AM

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right? But even at 20$ it was in a bubble right? I remember I first heard about bitCoin when it was 14$ and in the 10 days that it took me to wire my funds to MtGox it went up to almost 20$. So that's a whopping rise of 50% already!! and I mean it was up already thousands of % by that time for the true early adopters - yes? So suppose that 10$ is a pre bubble price and now there's a HUGE scare all around the world and the price of BitCoin goes up to wholly cow - 20$ !!!! WOWWwww!!! so high!!! it's like you say that Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't. 200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

GotBitCoins

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: anu on April 19, 2013, 10:43:27 AM

Quote from: wobber on April 19, 2013, 10:21:29 AM

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

Why am I saying this? Because I want the Bitcoin price at 10,000. Which is where we will go if you stop fooling around. I don't want to make a few bugs from the vola you induce.

PS:
If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

Everybody want's it at 10,000 but no hope for 12 months.

GotBitCoins

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: superduh on April 19, 2013, 10:24:37 AM

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...

GotBitCoins.

anu

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1001

RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Quote from: wobber on April 19, 2013, 10:21:29 AM

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

Why am I saying this? Because I want the Bitcoin price at 10,000. Which is where we will go if you stop fooling around. I don't want to make a few bugs from the vola you induce.

PS:
If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

If we have a good consumer base, I'm roughly saying 1 in 5 people that have internet, and by consumer base add everyone that knows about bitcoin and could buy it, we eventually need no more banks.

We could use OTC with fellows in the same city or even barter. When people will barter with bitcoins, that will be an amazing time...

GotBitCoins

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: justusranvier on April 19, 2013, 09:50:32 AM

The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump when you zoom out a bit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Yea! you are right - it's just a little whinney nothing of a bump - price should continue on - according to my extrapolation we are talking about 10,000$ per BTC in October...

Actually - more likely... I mean more likely than your little bump story that we shall face the same crash just like in 2011 - so it will take us to sub 10$ in 8 months...

I am not saying that this will be the scenario - I am just saying that... it's more likely than your little bump thesis.

This forum is going to be real quiet by then, especially the speculation sub-section....

GotBitCoins.

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: anu on April 19, 2013, 10:16:16 AM

Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 19, 2013, 02:26:05 AM

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

The it would be more than triple digits. But by then, hope that the system is good and we can support that masses getting in. 3 major exchanges with one being FuckGox?

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

Topic: And now - the sucker's rally - page 3. (Read 13939 times)