The power production cost of Bitcoin used to be a determining factor of price where most people interested in Bitcoin were miners.
Since the start of the run up to the halving, from around August last year, the expectation of future scarcity has been the driving factor.
This years media attention and promise of global commercialization is a factor several times greater than other previous factors combined.
There is currently no real sensible way of determining market value, the only businesses publishing consumer figures are exchanges and that type of customer base says little about real life adaptation.
There is a lot of promise of interest of big business. on the other hand, Legal framework and accounting practices inside Bitcoin are not there yet, so if governments or established institutions take a critical position towards Bitcoin in general. A temporary or permanent collapse may be the result.
International banking can overnight choose to no longer deal with anything Bitcoin related. The banks embracing Bitcoin now can change their attitude just as fast if they are put under pressure.
So it makes no sense to talk about a future reasonable price.
Topic: And now - the sucker's rally - page 4. (Read 13939 times)
But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??
GotBitCoins
In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)
Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.
And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?
The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy
Definitely! Reading the responses to my thread - I am now even more sure that Bitcoin shall be traded at much much lower prices...
The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump when you zoom out a bit:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
True. But it could be also a signal for more prolonged downtrend.
My questions is: what is the average cost to produce a coin now? add a 10%, hell, add 20% more and you get a absolely great price for BTC
The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump when you zoom out a bit:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.
Yup. Right you are...
The Internet was invented in the 1980 if you count the issue of RFC 760 as the birthday of the Net. And 5 years later, 1985, there was already a 25% penetration in the US?
GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
You , I like you.
The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy
Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.
Yup. Right you are...
But note that on this chart on Y axis there is "expectations". If one wants to tie it to price action than perhaps the most reasonable would be to treat is as "volatility".
Yes. that is an interesting take, and might correlate well.
But I do think you could make the argument that the price discovery process in the market is almost completely about expectations, and both price and expectation rise and fall with the "markets" view of the future.
Of course bitcoin is a strange and wonderful new beast and I certainly have little faith in my own abilities to predict the path to large scale adoption (assuming we get there).... and that is what makes this ride so much fn fun!!
You forgot "Complain about how other people use log scales to more accurately represent % changes in price over time"
One more thing, esp. in response to the most recent graph posted... we have no idea what the projected time frame for future events are. The "trough of disillusionment/slope of enlightenment/plateau of productivity" could take years, weeks, months, it seems that events happen faster as t increases (look at major inventions if you want a great illustration of that) so in the same way that extrapolating price data is risky, extrapolating from the x axis is just as difficult.
Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.
So to here is a more detailed chart that could tend to support OP premise, and perhaps give better language to discuss the tech innovation cycle. According to this chart, you might say we are seeing "Supplier Consolidation and failures" (exchanges collapsing etc, )but feels like a stretch. The correlation with BTC price is anybody's guess.
However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..
However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..
Oooh charts!!! Let me post one too!!!
Quote
Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.
You're cherry-picking two or three weeks of chart to compare to an entire life-cycle?
the all time chart says that same. Hmm, what are some good responses to this OP?
Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.
Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.
I like that..
Quote
GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.
Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.
Quote
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
[\quote]
Oh I still Got Bitcoins... I have ~4 BTCs or so in my Android wallet... just in case I need to buy something to drink....
Don't worry - I have the right balls to buy just when everyone are panicking - no worries here - otherwise you don't make much money eh?
[\quote]
Oh I still Got Bitcoins... I have ~4 BTCs or so in my Android wallet... just in case I need to buy something to drink....
Quote
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
Don't worry - I have the right balls to buy just when everyone are panicking - no worries here - otherwise you don't make much money eh?
Hmm, what are some good responses to this OP?
1) Ooh, he has a chart... cute!
2) Don't I see that chart posted once every 3 days?
3) The only thing OP proved is that via the zoom/pan function, you can make ANY chart look like ANY other chart. The sad thing is OP, doesn't realize this and actually thought he was making a coherent, well-supported point.
4) Why didn't you choose the cell phone adoption chart, color TV adoption chart, fiat adoption chart, etc? Zoom in on the early segment on one of those graphs and you could easily find a segment that looks exactly the same. Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.
1) Ooh, he has a chart... cute!
2) Don't I see that chart posted once every 3 days?
3) The only thing OP proved is that via the zoom/pan function, you can make ANY chart look like ANY other chart. The sad thing is OP, doesn't realize this and actually thought he was making a coherent, well-supported point.
4) Why didn't you choose the cell phone adoption chart, color TV adoption chart, fiat adoption chart, etc? Zoom in on the early segment on one of those graphs and you could easily find a segment that looks exactly the same. Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.
GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!
Maybe not polite, but the gist of it is more likely correct than your assessment. I think you have the time frame all wrong in reading that chart. The chart may be relevant to bitcoin (but we have no idea), however if applicable, we are just beginning institutional interest, let alone investment. I would guess (and I'm betting) that the big run-up is just beginning. But sell your coins now, if you don't want to be on the crazy ride that the next couple of years are going to be...
best of luck..
EDIT: of course I could be wrong..
Jump to: