-there is now no incentive to buy AMPs from the exchanges knowing that soon they can be bought for cheaper from a crowdsale (they must be cheaper or ppl would just buy them from the market instead) .
-there is no incentive to hold AMPs as they can now be dumped and bought cheaper at the crowdsale. infact there is a clear incentive to dump them to get an even better price at the crowdsale.
-You are also "shooting yourself in the foot" as AMP prices will remain rock bottom which means you have less money for development (considering a large chunk of AMPs are supposed to fund devs).
I suggest you speak to Dor. in the meanwhile I had to get out of AMP. simply not worth keeping with a crowdsale looming. I'll surely buy into the next crowdsale but only if it will be the last one.
Ok, first, the most obvious: Of course I'm speaking here after having been briefed by the CEO and other relevant Synereo people.
The rest is your own opinion and speculation. There's nothing wrong with that, but it does not make a good argument.
"Decentralized Economics" pretty much hit the nail on the head: the price will be higher than the market, if the market is "broken" (has any missing requirements). No one is really selling, they are putting small offers up (limited to cover transaction fee) trying to keep the price down.
The model that can be made from your assumptions fails for this reason:
No one who wants to invest, say $10,000, is going to buy AMPs in penny increments. Even if they did, there are transaction fees, and the price would start to go up with every purchase, and it would soon be higher than the fixed rate anyway!
Let's say AMPs are at $.10 each - that's 100,000 AMPs. The cheap prices you see on the trader's market are for 40 AMPs, 120 AMPs, etc. You'd have to make 1000s of those purchases.
On the other hand, if Synereo sells AMPs at $.10, how long do you think it would be before places like Poloniex would move to that price? I'd say about 24 hrs.
The reasons people will hold AMPs are the same: belief in the long term prospects of the final product. The Beta phase is a waiting game, and the people who are in during that part are looking at probably 2-3 years before the maximum potential is reached. Of course, projects like this can fail too, so we are doing everything we can to make sure that does not happen.