[ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains - page 2.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: macsga on September 28, 2014, 09:38:33 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 28, 2014, 03:38:37 AM

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Thinking of playing around with DOGE for a bit. I have about 1M at the moment. I foresee 150 Satoshis coming mid-week. To be honest, I saw the current rally coming when they announced the Litecoin fork but didn't have the time/will to mess around with at the time. Also, did you gave up with XMR? It's a nice entry point IMHO.

Cheers

Great questions.

About XMR = Monero: Still holding a small portion. Short term, I see a bull flag developing. As long as XMR remains above 0.00286, there is a bit more upside and I keep holding.

About DOGE: Could still be a good momentum play as long it remains above 86 Dogoshis :-).

Update: Went short -2.5% of portfolio on BTCUSD at 395.1 $.

macsga

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1002

Strange, yet attractive.

Quote from: S3052 on September 28, 2014, 03:38:37 AM

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Thinking of playing around with DOGE for a bit. I have about 1M at the moment. I foresee 150 Satoshis coming mid-week. To be honest, I saw the current rally coming when they announced the Litecoin fork but didn't have the time/will to mess around with at the time. Also, did you gave up with XMR? It's a nice entry point IMHO.

Cheers

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: McHaggis on September 26, 2014, 06:58:22 AM

Not that I mind but aren't you effectively giving the top level of service from bullbearanalytics in here for free?

Yes, I am affiliated with http://bullbearanalytics.com/.
But http://bullbearanalytics.com/ offers more frequent and deeper forecasts, as well as specific trading ideas.
Further, I am posting this "live investing / trading" here for free on a temporary basis and we will see how it develops.

macsga

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1002

Strange, yet attractive.

I may be wrong, but I believe he is somehow affiliated (owner? )

McHaggis

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Not that I mind but aren't you effectively giving the top level of service from bullbearanalytics in here for free?

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 26, 2014, 01:01:02 AM

Quote from: Odalv on September 24, 2014, 06:33:11 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 21, 2014, 09:56:23 AM

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short. (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

I did not forget. Just did not take the time to post it. Here the update. By the way, I did not take long position at 450 at all. Not sure why you believe this.

Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.

Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position

Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Starting to track annualized gains. I know it is early after 11 days, but annualized returns is the right benchmark and will get more stable over time.

Annualized gains: 53.1%

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Odalv on September 24, 2014, 06:33:11 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 21, 2014, 09:56:23 AM

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short. (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

I did not forget. Just did not take the time to post it. Here the update. By the way, I did not take long position at 450 at all. Not sure why you believe this.

Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.

Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position

Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Odalv

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 21, 2014, 09:56:23 AM

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short. (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ArticMine on September 21, 2014, 07:30:42 PM

I would consider this a fairly conservative defensive portfolio in anticipation of of a Financial Crash. The USD providing the bulk of the defensive position while the short (S&P 500) and Crypto-currencies XBT, XMR and DIEM providing the growth part to offset the 1-2% decline in the purchasing power of USD.

There is one part that leaves me baffled.

Quote

The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.

Given that this is over 85% of the portfolio what happens if this happens sooner? Presumably the XBT, XMR and DIEM will skyrocket to compensate for the loss in value of the USD. The short (S&P 500) position will become worthless or have negative values since it is in terms of USD. I know there are very few alternatives but, still it is very hard to have a 85% USD position if one believes the USD is in such deep trouble.

Good point on USD.

I foresee two strategies to manage a USD collapse (which I think won't happen before mid 2015), but even if here is what I'd do:

1) Move USD to CHF. CHF will most likely be the fiat currency to survive the longest. Since USD is liquid I can do this overnight.
2) Move part of it into phyisical gold stored as a safe location, e.g. via http://www.safewealthgroup.com/ (I have no affiliation with them, but think this is one of the few possibilities at hand)

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

I would consider this a fairly conservative defensive portfolio in anticipation of of a Financial Crash. The USD providing the bulk of the defensive position while the short (S&P 500) and Crypto-currencies XBT, XMR and DIEM providing the growth part to offset the 1-2% decline in the purchasing power of USD.

There is one part that leaves me baffled.

Quote

The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.

Given that this is over 85% of the portfolio what happens if this happens sooner? Presumably the XBT, XMR and DIEM will skyrocket to compensate for the loss in value of the USD. The short (S&P 500) position will become worthless or have negative values since it is in terms of USD. I know there are very few alternatives but, still it is very hard to have a 85% USD position if one believes the USD is in such deep trouble.

vphen

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

Quote from: S3052 on September 21, 2014, 09:56:23 AM

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

could you let us know your target of taking profit and stoploss

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Update 4.
Assets September 21, 2014.

88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Main change over the past 24h was to cash in +9.6% profit of a leveraged bitcoin short position.

Total portfolio up +0.8% since inception on September 14

If someone would have invested 1,000 USD, this person would be up 8 USD.
If someone would have invested 1,000,000 USD, this person would be up 8,000 USD.

thresher

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: S3052 on September 20, 2014, 03:39:48 PM

Good question

The asset allocation discussed here is meant to be for liquid assets in the general sense. I recentely ended all life insurances and got them liquidated to cash . I also sold all remaining stocks over the past weeks.
I keep a risk life insurance and the mandatory retirement plan from my work.

I don't have real estate as prices are in a bubble and I'd buy real estate in a couple of years if I really want to.

Also, real estate is different depending on your location .
Hence, this is why my example allocation is build on liquid assets and one that could work globally.

And I have nothing under the mattress. Cash is sitting in the (so far) safest banks.

Thanks for the clarification.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Good question

The asset allocation discussed here is meant to be for liquid assets in the general sense. I recentely ended all life insurances and got them liquidated to cash . I also sold all remaining stocks over the past weeks.
I keep a risk life insurance and the mandatory retirement plan from my work.

I don't have real estate as prices are in a bubble and I'd buy real estate in a couple of years if I really want to.

Also, real estate is different depending on your location .
Hence, this is why my example allocation is build on liquid assets and one that could work globally.

And I have nothing under the mattress. Cash is sitting in the (so far) safest banks.

thresher

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

I wanted to read this and actually gain some insight, but quite frankly you don't have any real estate, so in other words you have no money. Do you have more money than me, possibly, but if your investments don't include even your own home in them, than either A. you don't have a lot of money or B. you don't know what your talking about.

Also no retirement plans, life insurance, mutual funds, etc? You just have 85 percent of all the cash you own sitting under your mattress? Even having it in a bank should be listed if your trying to show your asset allocation.

Not trying to lay into you, but yeah....

600watt

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 2106

nice thread, ty

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 20, 2014, 02:20:34 AM

Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:50:06 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 02:42:46 PM

Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:35:04 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 12:32:30 PM

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so?

Cheers

Thanks much!
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)

You and me together. I've bought 4 btcs today as well (haven't done so for a couple of years tbh). I personally think that the bottom is reached ($370-380 range on Stamp). What do you think?

I think it has been a temporary bottom. I currently see an a-b-c bounce up. If it does not turn into an impulsive 5-wave move, we may see a breach of the lows in the next days. I raised my stop to 385 $.

Exited the BTC long position at 418.35

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:50:06 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 02:42:46 PM

Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:35:04 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 12:32:30 PM

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so?

Cheers

Thanks much!
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)

You and me together. I've bought 4 btcs today as well (haven't done so for a couple of years tbh). I personally think that the bottom is reached ($370-380 range on Stamp). What do you think?

I think it has been a temporary bottom. I currently see an a-b-c bounce up. If it does not turn into an impulsive 5-wave move, we may see a breach of the lows in the next days. I raised my stop to 385 $.

Topic: [ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains - page 2. (Read 9115 times)