[ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains - page 3.

macsga

legendary

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Strange, yet attractive.

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 02:42:46 PM

Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:35:04 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 12:32:30 PM

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so?

Cheers

Thanks much!
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)

You and me together. I've bought 4 btcs today as well (haven't done so for a couple of years tbh). I personally think that the bottom is reached ($370-380 range on Stamp). What do you think?

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: macsga on September 19, 2014, 02:35:04 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 12:32:30 PM

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so?

Cheers

Thanks much!
In fact I moved cash to BTC today around 390 for a brief trade with stop at 379.
And moved another cash portion to short S&P 500 (2012) and Nasdaq 100 (4107)

macsga

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1002

Strange, yet attractive.

Quote from: S3052 on September 19, 2014, 12:32:30 PM

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Hi. This is an interesting thread to watch. Great job S30S2! I'm a bit wary on your 2016-17 predictions but I will grand you the dubiousness about the timing. The outcome is definitely certain and I have the same opinion as well. What I find intriguing though is that you moved your Monero holdings to BTC. Why did you do so?

Cheers

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Update 3.
Assets September 19, 2014.

85% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: jimbobway on September 18, 2014, 02:12:27 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:04:05 AM

1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

Are you saying stocks will crash by January 1st 2016? So within one year and 3.5 months?

So if USD will fare better than other currencies and you hold 90% USD, when USD crashes and disappears where will you move your money in 2017-2018?

Great questions!
First, timing is the most difficult to forecast. Price is easier. Along those lines, the S&P 500 will crash at least to a lower low than in 2009 in USD terms. Quite probably it will fall even lower into the 100 point range. In terms of timing, I'd give a range between 2016 and 2017.
We will keep trying to narrow down the timing in the forecasting work we do.

Second, when moving out of USD? I will probably move a high percentage into physical hold and silver stored in a safe location like at safe store from safewealth.com. And only keep the needed cash in local currencies to survive and buy food.

jimbobway

legendary

Activity: 1304

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Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:04:05 AM

1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

Are you saying stocks will crash by January 1st 2016? So within one year and 3.5 months?

So if USD will fare better than other currencies and you hold 90% USD, when USD crashes and disappears where will you move your money in 2017-2018?

akhentek

newbie

Activity: 45

Merit: 0

Appreciate you sharing and updating this asset allocation table with everyone here.

Curious to hear your assessment of DRK in relation to XMR. DRK seems to be doing well compared to other cryptos over the past few days.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

2.
Assets September 18, 2014.

89% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
4% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: N12 on September 16, 2014, 04:08:49 PM

I don't think it is entirely fair to compare B&H to someone's trading results purely on past profits of a few years.

1) Unconditional B&H is subject to complete risk of loss. On the other hand, trading is subject to counterparty risk. This risk can be managed in some ways at least (pick a longer term trading style and withdraw your money in between trades, try spread your assets on multiple exchanges). Presumably, this risk will decrease once Bitcoin gets away from shady exchanges and becomes tradeable via ETF on actual brokers.
2) The performance of Bitcoin the past few years may not be the expected outcome, and the strategy that worked very well in the past may not work as well in the future

Not to say buy and hold doesn't have merit. It is a great "set it and forget it" strategy. But say you allocate 5% to BTC and then it becomes 90% because it appreciated so much, then you'll probably want to do risk management either via re-allocation or by trading.

PS: I did not think you lost anything to MtGox, I'm surprised to hear that. Had thought you switched it all to Bitstamp before.

Blitz,
well said!
On MtGox, I lost some, but it was minor - because indeed I switched most to Stamp before. Where I lots a lot was bitcoinica.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

I don't think it is entirely fair to compare B&H to someone's trading results purely on past profits of a few years.

1) Unconditional B&H is subject to complete risk of loss. On the other hand, trading is subject to counterparty risk. This risk can be managed in some ways at least (pick a longer term trading style and withdraw your money in between trades, try spread your assets on multiple exchanges). Presumably, this risk will decrease once Bitcoin gets away from shady exchanges and becomes tradeable via ETF on actual brokers.
2) The performance of Bitcoin the past few years may not be the expected outcome, and the strategy that worked very well in the past may not work as well in the future

Not to say buy and hold doesn't have merit. It is a great "set it and forget it" strategy. But say you allocate 5% to BTC and then it becomes 90% because it appreciated so much, then you'll probably want to do risk management either via re-allocation or by trading.

PS: I did not think you lost anything to MtGox, I'm surprised to hear that. Had thought you switched it all to Bitstamp before.

S3052

legendary

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My personal outperformance was 1.5-2x vs. buy and holding bitcoins.

BitcoinBullbear.com forecast performance tracking can be found on the website.

And from now on, you can track my portfolio performance live here in this thread.

Since the start, bitcoin is down as predicted and thats why I only keep 1%.

Odalv

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 03:49:57 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 16, 2014, 03:43:15 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 03:35:26 PM

Quote from: CoinBurner on September 16, 2014, 01:47:03 PM

Quote from: FNG on September 16, 2014, 07:55:22 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H Roll Eyes

so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy Grin

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD -> "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

What are you trying to prove here? As I mentioned, when BTC were worth much less, I donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. This is why the real numbers are nowhere near your numbers and I need to work hard everyday.

OK, you donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. What about BUY AND HOLD (in paper wallet), did you OUTPERFORM this strategy ? Did you even make 1% compared to B&H ?

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Odalv on September 16, 2014, 03:43:15 PM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 03:35:26 PM

Quote from: CoinBurner on September 16, 2014, 01:47:03 PM

Quote from: FNG on September 16, 2014, 07:55:22 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H Roll Eyes

so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy Grin

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD -> "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

What are you trying to prove here? As I mentioned, when BTC were worth much less, I donated a lot to good projects and lost some during hacks and exchange closures. This is why the real numbers are nowhere near your numbers and I need to work hard everyday.

Odalv

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 03:35:26 PM

Quote from: CoinBurner on September 16, 2014, 01:47:03 PM

Quote from: FNG on September 16, 2014, 07:55:22 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H Roll Eyes

so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy Grin

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

1.5 * 1 000 BTC * $1 200 USD/BTC = 1 800 000 USD -> "We are talking a couple (1,800) of thousands here"

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: CoinBurner on September 16, 2014, 01:47:03 PM

Quote from: FNG on September 16, 2014, 07:55:22 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H Roll Eyes

so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy Grin

correction. not orders of magnitudes, but 1.5-2x better than B&H. And also recognize that there were hacks and losses due to MtGox and bitcoinica going down.

CoinBurner

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 0

Quote from: FNG on September 16, 2014, 07:55:22 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

indeed... "by orders of magnitude" = at least 100x better than B&H Roll Eyes

so let's say OP just bought 100$ worth of BTC in 2010, that's about 1000BTC at ~0.1$ each
100 * 1000 BTC * 1200 $/BTC = 120 million $ ... yeah that's not rich at all... just moderately wealthy Grin

FNG

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Quote from: S3052 on September 16, 2014, 05:18:17 AM

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

BitCoinNutJob

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1000

Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:10:30 PM

Quote from: Arv1e on September 14, 2014, 04:14:06 PM

Quote from: Dalmar on September 14, 2014, 04:03:53 PM

Quote from: Arv1e on September 14, 2014, 03:58:40 PM

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1. 90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

If your net worth is over a million, 1% in BTC is more than enough. Tongue

Monetising the portfolio is irrelavent. It's 1%. Also he is suggesting he had ALL his money in Bitcoin and managed to sell at EXACTLY the peak.

If I had sold like that, taking into account the current value I would have re invested more than 1% considering we are at cirace $475.

Seems to me it's all a lot of hot air to get people to buy into his website for advice u8nless he has a crystal ball and knows EXACTLY when the trough will botoom out of course!

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

The forecast doesnt out perform buy and hold that such a misleading statement.... If you are a experienced trader maybe it could be helpful vs buy and hold. When i subscribed i remember suggestions from your service of picking up long term holding positions @ around $900 (on the way back down from $1200 this was). I also remember no predictions of the china bubble price boom, you guys didnt even give a slight clue we were going up to to insane prices like $1200. Even that guy fontas in BTC-e was calling for a $1300 top iirc - this was when we were at like $200!

Newbies or inexperienced traders should always buy and hold if investing in bitcoin < debunk that.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: windjc on September 16, 2014, 01:04:02 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:37:44 AM

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on September 14, 2014, 06:30:47 AM

Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:26:33 AM

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on September 14, 2014, 06:14:33 AM

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

Not to be an ass here, but if you were around 5 years ago, how the heck are you not "rich" or at least close to it?

I think you should share this as a cautionary tale in your thread for full disclosure.

It seems like there is confusion.
I have never and will also not here disclose my wealth to anyone.

But yes, I have outperformed buy and hold with bitcoin by orders of magnitude :-) and this led to a very sizable absolute gain. This is now re-invested into other areas.

But this thread is about a percentage example portfolio approach.

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

Quote from: S3052 on September 14, 2014, 06:04:05 AM

4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

Prices of goods measured in what? Not in dollars, since dollar will decline too. In gold? If price of everything, but gold is going to crash, then your hypothesis can be simplified to the: price of gold will rally.

Topic: [ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains - page 3. (Read 9115 times)