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Topic: [ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains - page 5. (Read 9115 times)

hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.



Can you confirm that you consider the time right after we have had some sustained upward movement. Going for the lower risk approach of seeing the price going up, rather than trying to time the bottom?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Are you anticipating a bitcoin and alt crypto crash soon?

For bitcoin forecasts, please refer to http://bit.ly/1qUp4qN. To be fair to the huge subscriber pool, we cannot publish the forecasts here.

In general, bitcoin may be stronger than many other assets, but since it is also a speculative vehicle, it may get affected by the ongoing and worsening flight to cash - as people may need to liquidate a lot of assets to pay their bills or cover losses in other assets.

Hope this helps you.
legendary
Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.


I think has saying why so few btc.
hero member
Activity: 767
Merit: 532
I think the question is, why do you only have 1% in btc?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.
member
Activity: 68
Merit: 10
Are you anticipating a bitcoin and alt crypto crash soon?
legendary
Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
Why so few cryptos?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
This is to share that I will publish my real asset allocation live here in a regular basis. I do this as it might be helpful to see for people who also agree that we are just before a major financial turbulence.


My hypotheses are:
1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

You don't have to agree to this view. Most of these views are also similar to those offered on www.bullbearanalytics.com, but this specific thread is solely based on my personal point of view.


Assets September 14, 2014.

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)
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