Because I have no idea who to listen to right now. :-/
Still... 15600 BTC with so many days to go is ridiculous. How exactly are the investors planning on profiting from this?
If I want my money tied up in Cryptos for half a year I'd want a big reward potential
If the IPO ends at 15,000 bitcoin, you'll need a market capitalisation of about 30,000 bitcoin to be break even.
This assumes that the eventual supply around year 4 is taken into account on the free market (It probably will be) and also assumed around 25% inflation year 1 and less than that for each year after. The reason why it isn't less than 30,000 bitcoin is because of the founders share, if the founders share is massive then you'll need a lot more than 30,000.
This only really holds of course if the IPO ends at 15,000 bitcoin,
If the IPO ends at 40,000 bitcoin, you'll will need a market capitalisation of about 80,000 bitcoin for the investors to not lose money.
Litecoin is worth over 300,000 bitcoin, so put that into perspective.
However, IPO's always fall down in the first weeks of trading, so if you're a small fish, buying on the market after IPO will be your best bet. The larger amount you want to buy the more chance you'll move the market and end up paying more than IPO.
If you want about 50 bitcoins (or less) worth of Ether, you're going to get a good deal once this trades on the free market. However if you wanted 1,000 bitcoin worth of Ether, this IPO might be your best chance.
Also remember that even though Litecoin will fall from grace, the top spots are going to belong to increasingly competitive and useful coins, I'm not sure what coin will be number 2 to Bitcoin, I have bet on Monero because its utility is immediate and worthwhile. Ethereum could settle above Monero or close.
I think long term holders of Ether from this IPO will be safe, but the short term ride will be rough.