Topic: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning - page 1216. (Read 2007101 times)

what do you mean? Did something happen? 

Yeah like some people think if they put in a small amount they help the project with it.

the advantage of ETH is: it washes the last stupid money out of coinsmarkets and puts it in the hands of experienced money-sharks.
While the sheep donate their btc to GS the rest of us can buy up the good alts at extreme discountprices just before BTC and alts go to the moon once more. I think i can speak for the ethereum team and everybody else in altcoin-space when i say: "thank you for donating"

People who are like "i invested just to be part of it and i don't expect any returns" make me laugh really hard. The denial is epic.

I bought in in the first days, but only a minor amount.  I never expected to make a profit from it, just wanted to be part of it.  The few IPO-ETHs that I bought may be a nice souvenir in the future - or not.  But I definitely don't care to lose the money I put in, and I don't see why others are pouring such huge amounts of BTC in Ethereum at the moment.

Can I hear your reason as to why?

just now bought some 2600+ ETH @ 1970. 

I agree with this. Wanted to add that it'll also be a huge test of patience from the 'investors'. A niche technology built on top of/within another niche technology may take decades to play out, will have bugs, and likely be in competition with Bitcoin that will for the current foreseeable future still be #1 and get improvements that directly replace Ethereum's methods.

I'd love to hear from one of these 'investors' what their time horizon is on this, and what kind of profit they expect and why.

Congrats on winning our bet!

Ethereum is going to be the biggest IPO debacle in crypto history.  There are going to be no buyers for this "coin." Thats the short term problem. So is the "where the hell are they ever going to justify spending $25 million dollars on CODING!"  Holy shit batman! This is a joke.

So here are all the likely things that are going to happen. "Investors" are going to be watching expenditures like a hawk. Anything that doesn't make sense to the public is going to cause a shitstorm.

On top of that Ethereum VC owners will control probably between 40-50k bitcoins. That is a huge cloud over the price of bitcoin and every bitcoin cashed in is going to be scrutinized.

Then there is the fact that the price will plummet. It has no choice but to plummet. No one is going to buy this coin.  Yes, there will be some buyers the first week or two. Then there will be no more buyers. ANY lack of ability to deliver is going to cause panic sells and once that happens 1 time the price will be permanently underwater.

Then the question is what would it take for the Ethereum investment to be profitable? Well, thats hard to quantify. As many wise people have noted, Ether is a coin to pay for contracts, etc built on top of the platform. If successful Ether will have its own market competition forces that will drive down the costs of transactions, making Ether LESS valuable long term.

And, OH BY THE WAY, Ether is INFLATIONARY. Wow. Just wow.

The odds of this ending well are so freaking minute. Its going to be a shitshow.

It does read that way.

I don't disagree with any of the scenarios presented, just I wonder if there is any scenario where ipo people could actually make any money initially. I have difficulty coming up with one due to the insane amounts invested (otherwise I would have put a btc or two into this). It's like a much worse maidsafe scenario ... it'd seem really unlikely for investors to recoup their money early on. And in that case, of course it makes sense to just wait.

Yeah, lucky SOB... right time, right place and apparently not the dumbest person

Mother of god  

I think that the sale will slow down significantly after this next price decrease - most investors who wanted to invest would have done so already. I think you'll see maybe another 1000 or so BTC invested but it'll be from little guys going forward.

In other news, this bet expires in 17 hours if you still want to get your prediction locked in:

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Total Ether sold will exceed 25,000 BTC Options: Yes | No

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If there's interest I'll recreate it with 50K BTC afterwards 

Most likely not .But as he owns about 300k-500k bitcoins in semi-liquid stock + XXXk in real BTC (most likely) I don't think it is neccessary.

Do you know if he provides a collateral in escrow?

They would be the most hated group of people in the crypto world if that happens but legally they are not required to launch this thing. If you read their TOS it reads like the rules of the worst company in the world

that two options are englobed on my first option.. i was refer to investors selling at loss due to any reason or no matter what reason was why it failed.

indeed the third outcome can be true, but i would say that ethereum never launches what he promised and never put even the shares live and all get scammed with all the investment. (what is almost unprovable when they can launch even a shitty software so they dont have legal issues.),   

The third outcome being that ether never launches what it promissed.

the fourth outcome being that ether is a disapointment and price plummtes even though BTC price doesn't move.

this has only two outcomes, first is that as seen on many ipos, investors will be selling his shares at loss without felling bad because bitcoin will be 5 or 10 x more (and if bitcoin remains the same it can happen too) triying to get back a portion of what they blown... and second the only way to see an increase on the price of this ether is that the project indeed sucess and ether starts to be consumed by real needs on the network not only speculation.

Yes, that was my theory as well. Also the reason I wagered that >25000 BTC will be invested (even suggested that up to 50000 will be invested!)

My rationale behind this is the following, the amount of BTC that needs to be pumped into this coin after the launch will be enourmous, if now all people buy in the IPO, this number gets bigger and bigger in addition to that everyone already bought that was interested! So who will be the buyers that buy at over IPO prices? 

I don't know that, and most others don't either!

But if the amount of ether sold continues to get bigger, i mean there is almost a month left, if at the end of this sale there are 200 millions of ether sold, what would you do? do you think a new brand alt coin will support a 100,000 btc price? this ipo can get trapped on his own success. at least for investors, not for the owners.