Topic: [ANN] FACTOM - Introducing Honesty to Record-Keeping - page 153. (Read 2115898 times)

This is for crazyivan and everyone else who is perplexed at wtf is going on with the markets???. Maybe my view of things resonates with some of you.

This is how I view the markets:
It is incorrect to say that price follows news. I think it is more correct to actually say news follow price but that is also not the entire truth. Price has a tendency to actually "unlock" news. Good times (price trending up) produce good news, bad news get ignored. Bad times (price trending down) produce bad news, good news get ignored, shrugged off.

The market can be viewed as waves in an ocean. Not that market price action is like water but more like water is a good medium that visually shows the movement of energy as it passes through it. For example in this simple animation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yPTa8qi5X8
The water does not really move, it is just energy that passes through it because if water moved it would carry the red ball with it. You can make that experiment yourself in the sea or ocean.

So price movements show a wave-like pattern to it. Look at any price chart, at any time frame. This means that as with water it is energy passing through that creates the waves not actual physical water moving (water movement in oceans is brought about by currents but leave that aside for now). The driving force of markets is human passion, it is the energy of human emotion and the ups and downs that come with it. The market is made up of 1000s of individuals who compose this super average being (or "Mr.Market" - B.Graham). The price chart is the emotional state of this creature in time. Every market has its own collective characteristics that make up this "being" - this gets influenced by the personalities of people who actively trade in that market. The gold market has a distinct "being" or characteristic, the oli market has one, the apple stock has one etc.

So since I simplified the market down to a single human (being) level, I can now try to draw parallels from my own life to spot patterns to understand this creature better. Know thyself and you will start to understand markets.

As a human I find that when I have negative periods in my life (and these do come in cycles) there is not that much that I can really do to "get better". Often the best things is to just ride it out. The strong tendency in those periods is to view the world in negative colours. Much easier to see bad things than good. So good things happening to me might only have a diminished impact on my mood. On the other hand, when I am happy, ectatic, I see only positive things. Even small good things might get me excited. Also I might even start to view bad things happening to me as not really that important, I shrug it off.

Both, the negative mind and the positive mind have the ignorance of not seeing the other side of the coin. This is also why the "balanced" mindset is the most profitable one for the trader since from a balanced (emotionally) point of view all the positive and negative aspects can be grasped and evaluated more truly.

To analyse the current situation in the cryptomarket:
There is currently a big Bitcoin wave. The capital in the crypto space is very limited, not enough to go around. When Bitcoin starts to rise it will suck up a lot of capital, since altcoin space is a very easy place to get it from. Bitcoin is ruthless in that matter. This makes altcoins shit the bed.
BUT this will also change. Soon Bitcoin will breath out that capital again and that will have a good chance to ignite a nice altcoin bubble rally. When that will be? I do not know. If I had to guess it will depend on whether bitcoin breaks the ~$775-780 area or not. What I do know is that right now there is a huge sale of altcoins going on that will probably produce nice profits sooner than later.

I think we have to wait a longer period until the natural growth steps in, maybe we were too pink or to hectic in our expectations.

my further guess is, that once "normal and organic Factom utilisation growth" happens, the situation will be easier for new investors to grasp - and they will step in.

As someone already said, the Factom project is not easy to comprehend.

And two things: first, most of the factoids are on Polo. Second, if the trollbox is a good sample of the average polo investors, then don't expect the average polo investor to do much research on the coin he/she invests in.

Coins with high face value, or highest market cap, have pretty much all the same project, to be a digital currency as bitcoin is, with an additional feature, or a limited field of application (Monero, zCash, Dash, LiteCoin, DogeCoin, Augur, Steem, PotCoin?). The idea is easy to get and can be explained with one and short sentence. Ethereum is a bit different, but again, easy to globally understand: it's fuel to lunch smart contracts.

So even if I tell you that Bill Gates and other people support Factom, a project about audit, keeping record of files, with no direct use for you, investor, having a tricky business model, being an average investor who doesn't dig, you probably won't invest.

That's my point of view. Price won't rise due to speculators activity, but rather with normal and organic Factom utilisation growth.

It is strange that the price doenst move but I see FCT as a vulcano waiting to erupt.

I ve noticed this as well, most alts re going down, both in price and volume. There s no corresponding BTC price jump so this usually means calm sea before the storm.

volumes on Poloniex are trending down in all coins...
for the leader ETH, both volumes and prices is going down. It means most Polo traders are hurt.

XMR seems to stabilize and has decent volumes now. but hasn't been able so far to take the new lead and go back to its Sep highs.

If ETH or XMR rallies hard, FCT should start to rally in sympathy. It attempted a breakout from the downtrend line. Depending on how you draw it, you may argue we broke it already hence some buys today but it was quickly rejected which is not very bullish...not 100% clear yet, but it looks to me we may finally break it soon...resistance levels if we break 0.032 is around 0.037

Good news should attract tons of new users and holders. How come it does not? This is one strange coin, everything which works in other markets, here means nothing.

its simple, market makers left the building, that's why the price is in a boring sideway with all the good news lol.

As usual, good news achieves nothing, the price goes down again. I wonder if we expect too much from this project. What if this is the equlibrium price which will stay the same for a long, long time. After all, burning couple million Factoids can last 2-3 years. What if we have been too pink about our expectations?

For the DHS grant, this was the official announcement from Factom:

https://www.factom.com/blog/dhs-s-t-awards-199k-to-austin-based-factom-inc

Googling "Factom AND Department of Homeland Security" will also turn up some articles.

I think there are a few threads on the DHS grant on /r/factom as well, and of course you can search this thread ("DHS" is probably best term).

https://www.smartrac-group.com/pr/smartrac-to-take-security-and-convenience-to-the-max-at-trustech.html

https://www.smartrac-group.com/event-reader/trustech.html

Three Things:

First thing.

Brian Deery, if you're here, well done for pushing through that Crypto Show interview. Those guys are the most unprofessional fools that talked complete dribble for 3/4 of the show.  You hardly had a chance to cover any topics of real interest with the constant interruptions. I refuse to listen to their show again.

Second thing.

Does anyone know when the dLoc presentation is at the Cannes Trustech event? I can't find Factom or Smartrac on the programme.

https://j2c-com.com/trustechconfex16/presentation2016/pdf/programmeDetailgb.pdf

Third thing.
M2 please

Me too, hold on to your seats

No problem!

thanks for some new insights!

Yes, the product will be more or less finalized (minus election protocol), the Exodus wallet integration will be out (or shortly thereafter), Factom will receive 1/3 of their initial funding per completion of M2, clients and partnerships will likely ramp up, and the world will finally be at peace. Exciting times ...

I'm not sure how much sense it makes to talk about inflation with FCT. My understanding is that one of the reasons for the split FCT / EC token system is to create a stable supply of available FCT. If usage goes up, price will have to go up in order to FCT supply not to be depleted. And vice versa. I'm not sure the supply would ever really "inflate," but rather, if usage dropped off, the price of FCT would simply go down, so that fewer FCT would be required to generate the same number of EC. The system is naturally balancing.

More about this here: https://www.reddit.com/r/factom/comments/4zxi6e/fct_ec_and_the_factom_financial_ecosystem/

One thing: this is ignoring price speculation. But again, given how this system is designed (market forces naturally moving FCT supply toward equilibrium), speculation is ultimately irrelevant to supply.

I agree with this. After M2 gets out, we ll see how strong Factom is cause at that point it will be out in the market. The product will be finalized.