I don't expect dividends to be significant until OFM platform is launched and starts generating fees.
Estimated Weekly revenue of trading platforms (24 hour volume × trading fee × 7 days):
Bittrex: (0.25% fee): $12k
Bitstamp: (0.20% fee): $35k
Poloniex: (0.35% fee): $203k
Optimistic scenario is OFM platform starts generating as much revenue as Poloniex. Then 1k ICN would rake in a massive $2.03 per week in dividends.
Very interesting analysis, but I think you have an error in your calculation here. It appears you are assuming all fees gathered by ICONOMI go to dividends. I don't believe the dividend rate has been officially set but it is usually discussed as being 20%, which means 80% of fees earned would be retained by ICONOMI for future operations and growth.
So if OFM gets as big as Poloniex and if ICN sets a 20% dividend rate on profits, your "massive" $2.03 per 1K ICN has to be divided by 5 to become a still quite respectable
$0.406 per 1K ICN, or $21.11 per year. For a $0.1257 * 1000 = $125.70 ICO investment, your OFM=Poloniex scenario would be
a great ongoing return on
tokens you continue to hold which would become
worth A LOT more than you originally paid for them - whether or not you bought them originally at ICO, or
buy them on the cheap at Kraken NOW.
Oh, and your analysis doesn't include any additional dividends on profits generated by ICNX or ICNP. So there's THAT.
ICONOMI. So many ways to make money.
Hodl.
I think you are wrong about the dividends. It was stated that as long as Iconomi have enough funds from ICO money for daily operations, all fees will go to ICN holders.
Once they will burn ICO money, profits will first be used for operational costs and the rest will be paid as dividends.
Since ~80% of ICNP profits go back to Iconomi, I don't expect Iconomi to be short for operational funds any time soon
Edit: The more I think about it, the more I love their business model. Very well planned.
As for ICN value - 75% up before first access, with BTC rally in the last 2 months says a lot.