Topic: [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy - page 3. (Read 1455 times)

I think that it will make the tool more complicated and won't add any valuable information.

Each country has different taxes, expenses depend on each exchange,  bank etc. It is very personal. It could be another slider,  but I don't think it will add valuable information

it still would end up in the user input data so then would end up affecting the results of the output, and I would imagine the default would be zero, so the user would need to select either a percentage and/or a fixed amount.

Which kind of reminds me of what I consider to be a more important feature that is currently not present which is the user's ability to share his inputs, so that if he provides a link to someone they could optionally see his inputs...

Each of these DCA cites allow for the copying and sharing of results based on inputs.

https://dcabtc.com/

https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

https://costavg.com/


Fair enough.


I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.

On the other hand, if we are going to perform some kind of an withdrawal of advance months, then the number of months that we are authorized to withdraw in advance might have a short period of time that it is possible to accomplish based on if the BTC price moves into a certain range that authorizes additional months to withdraw in advance.  There could be discretion regarding how to accomplish the withdrawals and at which price point, and the user would have to keep track of how he is carrying out such record keeping and keeping himself within the parameters of the guidelines of the rules of the tool (if he were to choose to try to follow the rules of the tool..including that if I were to authorize you joker_josue to withdraw from an account that we establish within the confines of the tool, then if you want to stay compliant, you would be restricted to the amounts within the parameters of the rule...and we could plug in our 20.5 example for that... .

Bitmover and I have already been discussing some of the difficulties with the tools ability to capture the exact spot price upon hitting refresh or at any specific time of the day, and as a tentative resolution we had agreed to showing BTC's price range for any selected day (and bitmover is still working on adding that) and I am not sure if having that feature will completely resolve the issue of trying to figure out at what price on the upside a person might be triggered to withdraw additional months or perhaps on the downside at what price the withdrawal amount might enter more restrictive territories.... and perhaps some of the calculations might need to be carried out manually for someone who had gotten used to using the tool and understanding how it works in line with familiarity with the formulas that are contained to trigger changes in the monthly withdrawal limit thresholds.


Consistent withdrawal over time would be a different tool.  Admittedly as long as the BTC price is more than 25% over the 200-WMA, the monthly withdrawal amount in terms of BTC will be the same in terms of BTC amount, but surely not in terms of dollar value.  Also the further the price is above the 200-WMA, the more months in advance become authorized for withdrawal, and I think that it would be prudent to take advantage of those guidelines, especially once the BTC price starts to get into % territories (such as higher than 400% above the 200WMA) that are authorizing 23 months in advance and more...and yeah there could be some accounting difficulty in regards to doing that, but it is still recommended to follow...especially if there are preferences to cash out BTC during the higher prices rather than during lower prices... and even though the tool is giving guidelines and I am recommending to take advantage of those guidelines, each person has discretion if he does not want to follow the guidelines, unless you happen to be someone who is mandated to follow the guidelines, if we go back to the example that I give you a budget and require you to spend within the guidelines.


I am not sure what you mean here.

It doesn't need to be a very specific field, something generic could be interesting. The possibility of indicating a fixed value or a percentage.

It is true that there are several possibilities, in turn the person making the withdrawal may have expenses, expenses that will be deducted from the withdrawal amount. So, having a way for the match to get an idea of this value can help in making a decision. In fact, you can even change the data, and make the indicated withdrawal times no longer exist. Or change accounts for consistent withdrawals over time.

Anyway, it could be another variable for the accounts, which I remembered could be useful.

Personally, I consider that specific kind of a tax field to contain way too many variables, even if we might concede that there are a lot of jurisdictional variations when it comes to tax treatment, there are also a lot of differences in regards to how any person might be treating his taxes including his ways to calculate his cost basis that could also vary based on tranches of coins that were being planned to be cashed out and how they are cashed out...there are also classified ways of spending coins that may have tax consequences in some kinds of spending, but might have exemptions in other circumstances.  Think about the context of gifting, in which in the USA, up to $17k per year per recipient could be exempted from taxes based on gifting, and there are other kinds of exemptions or reduction of tax consequences.

Sure there could be a general field rather than a tax specific field, the field would account for estimated expenses and it would reduce the payout amount in order to attempt to measure net pay as compared to gross pay, yet from my current thinking that kind of extra field seems to have tendencies to overly complicate the tool.  What do you think bitmover?  Do you want to add an expenses field?

One of the main reasons to use this kind of a tool is to get some kind of idea regarding how much BTC to withdraw and to even show maximum withdrawal amounts based on current BTC price conditions in relation to the 200-week moving average, and surely there could be some cases in which the actual benefits of the coins is reduced due to various transaction fees, taxes or other costs that could be applied right at the time of withdrawal, yet something like taxes might be a matter of how it is categorized within reporting categories that might be somewhat ambiguous and difficult to capture even if we were to put a general expenses field in there, and even if such an "expenses" field might be helpful, I am still leaning towards thinking that such a field adds more clutter, complication and distraction to the idea than it benefits - even though it is not totally irrational to want to include the consideration of those kinds of personalization ideas.

A suggestion that I now remember.

Since in some countries you have to pay taxes on crypto income, it could be useful in the tool to have a field for the user to indicate the % of taxes.
It would be a free field, where each person would place what was most convenient for them.

This could be a good way to evaluate performance, taking into account the taxes you have to pay.

I am thinking that your mindset is in the wrong place Kakmakr, because the overall purpose of this kind of tool is to figure out ways to draw an income off of your BTC, so there is a kind of presumption that your BTC holdings has reached a high enough state that you feel that you have enough and/or you need to generate income (or a cash stream) off of your bitcoin, but at the same time you are doing it in such a way that the dollar value largely would continue to justify the rate at which you are withdrawing.

And, by the way, what would be the purpose of withdrawing and the buying back except to sell with one hand and buy with the other, and sure, you are not framing your question like that because you are potentially presuming that if the BTC price goes down after the withdrawals then the person would be better off to buy back.. but still you would ONLY be thinking like that if you are not really ready to sell your BTC in the first place, or you have such a trading mindset that you cannot get over the idea of trading....so if you have a presumption that the market is moving down as you are selling then such a strategy would likely work well in terms of selling and then DCA'ing back, but we already know that overall the BTC price trends up and the 200-week moving average trends up, so this tool is also premised on the same kind of idea that the BTC price overall trends up, even though in the short term there can be extensive down or sideways periods.

Of course, since the tool itself is calculating lower rates of withdrawal for when the BTC price is no more than 25% above the 200-WMA and also since it shows the ability to advance withdraw once the BTC price gets more than 33% above the 200-WMA, therefore  you still could end up using the tool in order to create your own strategies around both withdrawal rates and for buying back.

Actually your suggestion to DCA with the money used for the withdrawal hardly makes any sense for the monthly withdrawal (except if you presume the BTC price is trending downward), but there could be some value to employ a kind of DCA (or buying back) for coins that are withdrawn for months in advance, yet there would still need to be some strategizing around that, and such strategies would likely have a whole hell of a lot of variability.  

So for example if the BTC spot price goes into the range of being 400% to 650% higher than the 200-WMA, then the tool authorizes you to withdraw 23 months in advance, and surely there could be decisions (and even uses of the tool) to buy back (and even DCA buy back) if the BTC price drops into some lower range.  I am not really sure how much of a drop would be necessary or preferred, but it could be possible that we could add some kind of tool that would suggest buying back some of the advance months sold if the BTC price drops into one of the lower ranges... perhaps even if the BTC price were to drop more than one range below then months (or fractions of a month) could be bought back on a weekly basis (even using DCA techniques.. even though it probably would not be fair to exactly call it DCA because it is buying on dip and could be DCA combined since there could be a time element in there too.), but it still would end up having quite a few discretionary matters built in.. even though I would not be opposed to adding that kind of a extra component to the tool if there were a way to allow it to not distract from the overall presentation.. It would likely end up being a section that involves using advanced months to be bought back.

I try to accomplish this in my other selling on the way up rake tool in which it allows for the customized selling of BTC at certain price points and then it allows for a speculation of buying back at certain price dips (that the user can customize both the selling points and the buying back points which may or may not end up getting hit, so therefore the tool also allows for an assignment of probability towards the buy back points getting hit).


I am not sure what you are getting at with these kinds of comparisons.. because overall there would not be any advantage to sell and buy back unless BTC is in an overall downtrend. but then the reason to buy back would be presuming that the price is ultimately going to go up.. .which is the foundation of DCA buying....and the foundation of this tool is similar in the sense that you presume that the BTC price is going to continue to go up, so maybe there are some hesitancies to sell any BTC, so if you want to sell within a sustainable rate, you can still profit from the overall presumption that the BTC prices are going up (even though they might not in the short term and also that it is not guaranteed that they will continue to go up, even though the tool is still built upon that presumption).


This tool goes more into the idea that the quantity of BTC that could be spent within any given month, yet it does not go into the questions of how such BTC would be spent - because we could imagine scenarios in which we are able to spend BTC at various locations, but if we are largely just converting BTC to cash, then that seems to be the more expedited way to accomplish what the tool suggests, in the event that there are not avenues to spend the BTC during the month, and surely there likely could be a preference to be able to spend the BTC on goods and services throughout the month whether that is rent, food, transportation, hookers, lambos, yachts, planes, and blow and/or other recreational/consumption goods or maybe it could be for investments into properties, equities, bonds, commodities... .. but there is also a presumption of converting all within the month, and the advance withdrawals would more likely be spent to convert to cash rather than consumption goods.. because as in the earlier example, of a BTC price that is 400% to 650% higher than the 200-WMA, there may well be some difficulties finding 23 months worth of items to consume, and it may well not make any sense, but if you spend 23 months in advance, then you are not allowed to cash out any more BTC from the fund until 1) the 23 months pass, 2) some months are bought back or 3) the BTC price rises into a higher category that triggers the allowance to withdraw additional months in advance.  So to me it seems that the most logical place for 23 months in advance would be to go to cash or cash equivalents or maybe something else that is somewhat liquid.. including the consideration that if the BTC price drops stupendously if the value is in cash, then several of those advance months could be bought back and allow for the increase of the BTC stash and the authorization to continue to withdraw using the tool, especially if all of the sold months are bought back.


You frame hoarding as a negative, but if you are saving something like bitcoin or the soundest of all monies, then I would not label that behavior as negative.. The spending of least value of assets and/or currencies fits within the concepts of Gresham's law, which means that you should not be spending your most valuable of assets/currencies until you have run out of others to spend... which also might be a reason to use this kind of tool in such a way that sets your sustainable withdrawal percentage at a lower rate rather than a higher rate, especially if you are considering ways to allow your BTC to continue to grow in value.  Accordingly, I would think that a presumption of this tool is also that bitcoin is the best of monies, so you may well not even want to withdraw any of your BTC if you have other sources of income, but once your stash is a large enough size, then you can use the tool and continue to mostly hold onto your BTC. while at the same time choosing your own personal level of cashing out.


There still may well be questions regarding at what quantity of BTC might someone begin to use this kind of tool, and surely it could be started with any quantity of BTC, but surely it makes more sense to assure that you are mostly no longer in the BTC accumulation stages - even though there are ways to also use the tool to accumulate more BTC if you sell months in advance and then buy back those months at lower levels, presuming that BTC spot prices continue to fluctuate and go through these various levels in which they are way higher than the 200-WMA which triggers the selling of more months in advance or the way lower prices that are closer (or even below the 200-WMA) which triggers lower levels of BTC selling (withdrawal) but also could trigger some buying back of BTC as seems to be the question that you started out your post.


Yeah it is either a very different tool or it is something that is very difficult to add to this tool without causing a lot of confusion regarding the more central purposes and presumptions of this particular too.


I think that several people do look at this tool and they consider various ways that they can use it to trade and/or to use the tool to their advantage in buying and/or selling, and surely one of the advantages of highlighting how close or far the BTC spot price is from the 200-WMA would allow the tool to be used in that way, even though that is not the framework in which we are trying to present the information...

I am not against trying to add some additional ways of looking at the data, even though it seems that the tool is already providing a lot.. especially if someone has already gotten to a certain quantity of BTC that he would like to consider within such a budget.  And, so i can also see how someone who is in a different stage of the BTC accumulation journey, they might be trying to use the tool in another kind of way... and that is really not a problem if that is what people want to do... and if they can find some advantages in that... but many times if someone is in their earliest of BTC accumulation stages, then they likely should be accumulating no matter what the BTC price, but then the dilemma comes for those who might have accumulated decent amounts of BTC, but they still do not have enough to be cashing out, so they could end up using the tool in ways to complement their BTC accumulation journey.. yet anything that devolves into trading is going to retain a certain amount of risk, and so the tool could also help with those kind of risk mitigation matters too.

This would be a completely different tool.

Maybe using 200WMA to buy more or less would be interesting. Not a passive DCA, but a more active strategy of DCA using this 200WMA formula. Could be interesting.

I know this is a sustainable withdrawal strategy, but it would be interresting to see if you can also add a DCA comparison graph, to see what would have happened, if people used that money to buy BTC and not spend it.

Even a comparison that are based on the same strategy, but done through a Bank deposit and based on historic interest rates.

I believe people have to spend bitcoin, to stimulate bitcoin  adoption and also supporting the merchants that accept bitcoins, so thank you for providing a controlled method to do this.

Hoarding is a natural reaction, when you deal with something that beats inflation... but people should use a strategy like this to spend bitcoins, without having the fear and the regret that comes with that.  

perfect! incredible explanation with surgical precision, now I really understood the whole point of this strategy and things cleared up my mind. Really excellent.



Indeed, I, like many here, are living in this phase of accumulation and attempts to increase capital, but we will inevitably reach a point where we can make profits and exit this phase and change our strategy.

Every good investor has to think about all the points and all possible variables, it's a life strategy, everything has to be calculated.

I really liked this tool and I will study it.

I am pretty sure that I have created various BTC accumulation tools like that for myself that involve various ways to accumulate BTC that includes expectations of worse case scenarios, medium case scenarios and best case scenarios, and there are so many variables in terms of how much cash a person is able to put in and how the BTC price does, and just as a framework, we can consider that if someone invests 10% of his income over 10 years, then it will take that amount of time for him to reach 1 year's income invested, and we almost have to assume away changes in pay and also how much his investment portfolio might appreciate in comparison to changes in the cost of living, and so if someone might be able to be 3x more aggressive than he may well get close to having one year's income and/or expenses covered in 1/3 the time, maybe 3.3 years or less, and if someone is able to live off of ONLY 70% of his income, then he does not even need a whole years income as the measuring point for how much it costs for him to live each year, but at the same time, there could be desires to delay gratification mainly in order to increase the standard of living at a later date, whether that is realistic or not might be another story, but it does sound like a new tool, even if the tools could be related as you mentioned, since once you reach your goals, then you would be in a better place to transition from accumulation stage to maintenance stage to liquidation stage, but then there still could be a bit of a quite period between still accumulating bitcoin and then later going into a stage in which the BTC accumulator becomes comfortable to start to sell some coins.

By the way, also with your 1 BTC in 10 years, if you think about it, there is likely a need to invest around $200 per week just to get to 1 BTC in 10 years, and of course, that is based on various assumptions, so if you invest $100 per week into bitcoin for a year, then you have invested $5,200 over a year and that would be $52k over 10 years, and so that is part of the reason that I am suggesting that $200 per week would be more likely to get a newbie investor to 1 BTC in 10 years rather than $100 per week not having good chances of making it to 1 BTC in 10 years... of course, there can be built in assumptions regarding discretionary/disposable income and there can be variations in regards to expenses or increases in cashflow but guys can surely estimate all of those factors to come at some results that might be conservative scenarios, medium case scenarios and better case scenarios.  So yeah if you already have a head-start on your BTC accumulation quantity, then that would be something different from trying to project how many BTC that you would like to accumulate from here on out, and surely if you already have a stash, there are ways that the BTC stash might be able to be accounted, but there are also some assumptions of an ability to hang onto it if you already have it.. which may also be a pretty BIG assumption.. but could be factored into a tool that attempts to figure out how many BTC you might be able to accumulate within certain timeframes into the future.

Also, look at my entry-level fuck you status chart.  I had a couple of earlier versions that required less time to pass in order that 1 BTC would constitute entry-level fuck you status, but this latest chart version errors on the side of more conservative and in 10 years you need more than 7 BTC to reach entry level fuck you status and it takes until 2049 that 1 BTC would constitute entry-level fuck you status..  Of course that entry-level fuck you status chart presumes western standards, and surely there are folks who would be able to get by off of 1/4 or even less and consider themselves at entry level fuck you status.. so a $2 million would allow for $6,667 per month and $500k would allow for $1,667 per month which would be more than acceptable for some folks as a quasi-passive income.

Perhaps they could create a version of the tool that allows the user to enter their future goal and their withdrawal plans.

Imagine, I want to have 1BTC in 10 years, and then start making sustainable withdrawals. The tool would create a monthly purchasing plan to achieve this goal. And then I designed a sustainable withdrawal plan.
Or, instead of saying how much bitcoin I want to have in 10 years, I can indicate that I want to invest $100/month for 10 years, and then see the sustainable withdrawal plan.

Logically, this has to be another type of tool, and another type of strategy, because we are talking about future values and we never know what the future will be like.


@bitmover, another suggestion, maybe for the future. The possibility for the person to save the forecast, and whenever they return to the website they can retrieve the forecasts and adjust their planning. Instead of creating accounts, you can download a file, and then just upload it and the data will be available again.

These are all good points, including that historically we have not had very many lasting periods in which the BTC spot price had been below the 200-week moving average, especially as it had spent a lot of time at or below the 200-WMA between about June 2022 and October 2023, so I am not even sure if we could expect those kinds of periods to come in the future or even to last very long, but surely anything is possible, including that it is possible that some day the 200-week moving average might have some negative periods.  I personally don't consider it to be too likely but I surely would not write off such possibilities...

So in that regard, if based on the tool's guidance, you had sold quite a few months of your authorized BTC withdrawal amounts in advance when the BTC spot prices were anywhere between 400% to 1,400% higher than the 200-week moving average (which would be potentially selling 23-59 months in advance), then it seems that if the BTC prices start to even get close to having way lower premiums, then you could use some of those advance sold months to buy back, and you would not even need to wait for it to go down to the 200-week moving average or even within 100% of it, especially because you had already sold at fairly high prices.. and even in the end some guys do get nervous about buying and selling and devolving into trading kinds of practices, even if you are seeming to trade the big price swings with limitations on your budget, you still would be ahead of the price if you are selling within the tool on the way up, including advance months of selling and you are finding yourself with a lot of extra cash, and discretion whether or not to buy back, because you also would be locked out from selling any more months, if you had already sold months in advance, unless were to use that money to buy back months that you sold in advance.. and I am not even proclaiming exactly how to do these kinds of things because the tool does not completely help you to figure out those kinds of discretionary and balancing matters.. even if you might be trying to mostly follow the parameters of the tool's guidances... ultimately you are completely responsible for your own decisions regarding the extent to which to employ the tool and how to do it.

which reminds me @bitmover,

1) maybe we should make some kind of further and more bolded disclaimer on the site, to help to make it clear that:

"Anyone using this tool in anyway, whether following its suggestions or otherwise is complete responsible for his own financial decisions, and this tool or any of the representations associated with it on this page or on any of our communication about the tool is not financial advice since each person is responsible for his own decisions whether following the tool to the tee or deviating from it in various ways or otherwise overly-relying on the tool, don't come crying to me or to bitmover if you end up losing money.... or failing to realize your full BTC potential or otherwise, since you are responsible for your own actions, inactions or even due diligence in regards to whether or not to invest into bitcoin, or how to cash out of bitcoin or whether or how to employ any tools like this one or any other tool that we provide in our various linked sources or discussions."

2) there may need to be another place on the page, maybe near the title that says "powered by bitmover" or some other variation of that.


It is true that if you are in your early accumulation phase or even deep into your accumulation phase, but not quite at a point to be liquidating, then you probably should not be using the tool, because it is not really good for growth of your holdings. 

Even though you are correct that there are a lot of members, and probably an overwhelming majority of members who are new to bitcoin, so they may well need to spend 4-10 years or longer merely accumulating BTC before they might either reach a maintenance stage or even a kind of liquidation stage, and the tool is better for maintenance and/or liquidation.. but if it is sustainable liquidation, then it would be kind of between maintenance and liquidation,  yet it is always going to be the case that there are newbies coming to bitcoin, and surely I don't agree with either trading and/or selling in order to accumulate more BTC, even though some folks will surely be engaged in those kinds of practices and maybe even relying on this tool in order to try to trade or try to increase their BTC stash... and I think that we already point that out on the page, and maybe we can make that more clear, even though we do already say that.. but guys will frequently want to figure out ways to increase their BTC stash, and maybe get lured into the wrong kinds of practices or tools such as using something like this tool, which is not meant for such purposes. 

I think that the main problem with communication is that most members here are still in the accumulation phase. (in WO, things may be different and there are more people which already reached their btc holdings goal)

most users when look at this tool think about how to use it to make their BTC holdings grow.

However, this is a tool to other phase of your investment life, the withdrawal phase (i.e. when you are already retired, not accumulating anymore).

I think that is an error in the presumptions that a lot of guys seem to be making, which I am trying to suggest that if any of us attempts to have a sustainable withdrawal, then the rate of our withdrawal should be equal to or less than the appreciation of the asset (in this case BTC). 

So for example if you withdraw 4% per year, you can do that forever so long as the bitcoin is appreciating in value at least 4% per year relative to what you are measuring it in, whether that is dollars, other fiat, gold, hookers, lambo, blow, housing, yachts, food, or whatever is the thing you are measuring it in. 

Even though in traditional assets, a withdrawal rate of 4% would consider to be sustainable, but it also ONLY works if the various investments are at least performing 4% or more on average (even if there are likely to be some poor performing years along the way, but overall if it is mostly averaging more than 4% performance, then you should be able to withdraw forever). 

I am also asserting that currently in bitcoin 6% to 10% has historically been sustainable, and has decently good chances of continuing to be sustainable in the near future based on bitcoin's historical performance and including a conception of its future performance - including that out of bitcoin's last 13 years, it's worst performance (in terms of the movement of the 200 week moving average) was in the past 18 months (between May 2022 and November 2023), which was 20% per year during that time (you can see the actual numbers per 6 month basis in my fuck you status chart).

So surely past performance does not guarantee future results; however, at the same time I am arguing the usage of the 200-week moving average to value your BTC stash since it is mostly a bottom and subjected to less volatility than trying to figure out what the fuck is going on with BTC spot price.. even while at the same time, BTC spot price is going to pull upon what the 200-week moving average does, in terms of the degree that it goes up and if it ever starts to go down rather than up, which so far it has not, especially over a 6 month period, which as you see from my fuck you status chart it's worst upward slope is slightly below 10% on any 6 month basis, which were three in a row in the last 18 months.


I had been giving some thought to that, and of course, if you end up withdrawing many months in advance based on the strategy (for example if you ended up withdrawing 59 months in advance because BTC spot price were to go more than 14x higher than the 200-WMA, which would have been the case if you had used the tool on December 16, 2017), you could use some of that withdrawn in advance amounts in order to buy back some BTC, which would increase your budget for future months.

Whether it is necessary or not to do such a buying back of the BTC would surely be a discretionary matter based on all your personal particulars, including why such tool is being used and whether the use of such tool is for all of your BTC stash or maybe for sub-component or maybe even for some separate entity that you set up with a certain budget level.. which is probably why i am likely to continue to come back to the idea of starting out with 21 coins in late 2022 as my running hypothetical that I will likely continue to add hypothetical withdrawal amounts in order to keep it as a kind of running example. 

And by the way, if someone were to withdraw 59 months in advance or even 23 months in advance, that is a hell of a long time to not use the tool, and there surely could come a BTC price dip during that time that causes the person to buy back BTC at such a rate so that he would be able to get credit back for the "in-advance months" that he sold and then once he buys back the BTC then to go back to continuing to use the tool on a monthly basis based on the new BTC reference balance, with presumptively a higher budget based on his having had added more BTC to it... it is difficult to imagine any kind of selling 59 months in advance of BTC at 14x above the 200 week moving average or even selling 23 months in advance at 400% to 650% above the 200-week moving average and then not ending up having some kind of BTC price correction in 59 months or even 23 months respectively that might not justify buying back some of those advanced sold months.     


You are using trading language, and this is not a trading tool.  The main intent is not to use it as a trading vehicle but just to continuously withdraw on a monthly basis in order to live off of it, either in a retirement kind of a situation, a passive income situation, or just some way that a business might choose to budget itself from having such BTC holdings.  Both the ability to sell advance months when the BTC price is at least 33% above the 200-week moving average, and the restrictions on the sell amounts during periods in which the BTC price price is 25% or more below the 200-week moving average does cause the tool to help to guide rates of withdrawal based on how close the BTC price is to the 200-week moving average but at the same time giving some kind of guidance regarding how much to engage in such restriction of withdrawal amounts or advanced withdrawal based on decently good BTC price performance.

Of course, technically if someone bought bitcoin, whenever they sell they are closing the position, presumptively at a profit if they have held for long enough, yet if we are dealing with a long term investment and even slow rates of withdrawal, we are generally not using those kind of trading terms, so that is partly the reason that I continue to describe a withdrawal practice.. yet in the end, you can use the tool however, you like, even if it was not very much the intended purpose...and even when dkbit98 had earlier described the tool as a way to reverse DCA, I battled against that way of describing the tool, too.. even though maybe if we were to go into the higher levels of withdrawal, such as 30% to 100% (which the tool does not currently support such a withdrawal rate range - even though I am not completely opposed to it), we might label that as reverse DCA (or more expedited liquidation) or some other term to clarify that the tool is being used in a way that is outside the original conceptualization of the tool.


I think that I mostly understand what your various points and what you are asking, yet if you want to respond further, then no problem.

JayJuanGee can made better answers, but i will try to answer some questions.



It depends on which Annual Withdrawal rate you choose. If you go below 6%  (conservative), ideally, even when you are very old and about to die you would still have some BTC. This is a sustainable withdrawal strategy.


I think that when you are not allowed to withdrawal (when the price is below the 200WMA), it is a good time to buy.

There will be a second tool which will do something like this. But I am still learning about it and we will release in a few weeks/months.

At a certain point, the investor's bitcoin supply will be equal to zero, right?

I didn't have time to read the other answers, I apologize for that, and I have one more question: is there any possibility that the strategy indicators inform that it is a good time to deposit more bitcoins so that the withdrawal is always sustainable?

From what I understand of the strategy, it is made to possibly make a profit and definitively close the positions, is that it?

But if I wanted to use it again, this is my question. I don't know if I expressed myself correctly.

Of course, I largely already attempted to respond to Dkbit98 in order to suggest why I did not consider this to be reverse DCA and I am not even sure if I like the term reverse DCA - except maybe if such term would be used to describe an even more aggressive style of withdrawal.. such as greater than 30%. .even though 30% is likely not going to be very sustainable either.. yet something like reverse DCA is likely even more aggressive than anything close to being considered as sustainable withdrawal... so the idea of sustainable withdraw would be that the withdrawals could be carried out perpetually, and there is no real dipping into the principle.. so if there ends up being a need to dip into the principle, then that is a different story... which maybe would be considered as reverse DCA.


Look forward to your consideration of the matter, and surely it may well not be as relevant until you get closer to considering that you have reached your BTC accumulation targets, but surely if you might be getting close to reaching your accumulation targets or if you might want to set some bitcoin aside into a separate fund that has authorization to spend up to certain amounts, this tool may well be useful.

This might just be one of my great lessons of 2024 as the DCA method was for 2023. In other words, I learnt and started using the DCA method 2023, and in 2024, I'm also learning about something that looks like reversed DCA according to @Dkbit98.

I will take time to explore the website to fully grasp what it's all about and also make my input or ask questions, if any. I appreciate the effort you all are making in order to make us enjoy being part of the revolution called Bitcoin.

I am trying to consider some possible ways to make some better examples and/or explanations regarding how to use the tool so that it might be more obvious on its face how might be the better ways to use the tool, even though at the same time, there is enough flexibility within the tool in terms of setting your own conditions regarding how much BTC that you want to subject to the tool or how high of a percentage you would like to use as your withdrawal rate.  So, in that sense, I have already attempted to make representations by labelling the withdrawal rates with recommendations in terms of "conservative" versus "moderate" versus "aggressive" vs "extremely aggressive," yet at the same time, it could be the case that my recommendations are not very good in terms of BTC's actual future price performance in contrast to what its future performance is speculated to be. 

Sure the tool is not going to help any of us to determine the extent to which we might have enough BTC in order to even consider starting such a BTC withdrawal strategy because we might be premature in our desire to extract value out of our stash prior to our really having had established a sufficient enough stash to begin such a process, and yeah, and the tool cannot really completely give such guidance.

So for example currently, I would suggest that currently the default fuck you status level is around 67 BTC, that is $2 million / current 200-week moving average of $30,145 (you can plug those numbers in the tool and see those values); however, in my examples, I am describing a system to use "only" 21 BTC, and maybe even suggesting that 21 BTC could even be enough to begin such an ongoing withdrawal process even though default entry-level fuck you status has not yet been reached (if we might presume that there might be a goal to reach entry level fuck you status in the future), and still we well might well have great chances of reaching default entry-level fuck you status in the near future while engaging in a kind of sustainable withdrawal of the BTC rather than continuing to accumulate or even waiting to reach such entry-level fuck you status prior to beginning such a withdrawal.  Even my default entry-level fuck you status chart shows that the 200-week moving average might not move to a high enough level in order for 21 BTC to be entry-level fuck you status until late 2028, yet if by mid-2029, we were to still have at least 18.2 BTC, we may well would have still entered into default entry-level fuck you status, even if we engage in sustainable withdrawal so long as we had ended up depleting our BTC by slightly less than 3 BTC in the next 5-years-ish.

It seems to me that a guy would have better chances to be able to accomplish still growing his BTC value while engaging in ongoing withdrawals by engaging in more modest ("conservative") levels of BTC withdrawal such as 4% or lower rates of withdrawal rather than even using the higher levels of withdrawal of between 6% and 10% that I have labelled as "moderate," yet such higher levels of withdrawal would not necessarily be "moderate" if a guy is starting to use such tool with a BTC stash size that is way too small, such as if he might ONLY have a couple of bitcoin.. and I am not even saying that a couple of BTC is not enough to begin such a process of using such tool because each person has to decide for himself regarding what it is that he is wanting to achieve with his bitcoin and maybe what level of income (frequently considered as quasi-"passive" income) he would like to be able to withdraw from his bitcoin stash on a regular basis and still to either make sure it is sustaining its value, or maybe growing its value or maybe if he enters into aggressive withdrawal then he would be acknowledging that he may well be depleting his BTC stash rather than keeping it sustainable in a kind of perpetual way.   

So, yeah a guy could use the tool to help him in governing his whole BTC stash or maybe even if he were to create a separate BTC stash, and to create conditions on that separate stash (such as my example of starting with 21 BTC and then currently being down to 20.5 BTC after a bit over a year of following some kind of conservative withdrawal variation (i.e. around 4% or less) of this kind of sustainable withdrawal system).

Thank you for your explanation, I better understood the idea of this strategy, and the objective of the tool itself.

Basically, and very basically, the ideal would be for the person to consult this tool every month, to check whether or not they should make the withdrawal. Perhaps some more information could be added to the tool to help with this reading. And allow us to indicate whether or not it is recommended to make the withdrawal. Of course, in the end the decision is up to the person, based on the information collected.

Congratulations on the tool and idea. I will continue to follow.