The (two) number 1 things are regulatory approval and user base growth. Userbase growth I'd expect to continue its upward creep (though not fast enough). However regulatory approval, in particular in US states, isn't a quick or easy thing to achieve.
I think there's a degree of realism in the market now that has replaced the early exuberance when it comes to Lykke. Lykke was a great buy at 6 cents. At 41 cents, it was substantially overvalued at some $600 million plus in marketcap. To give you perspective Coinbase was talking about raising a funding round that valued itself at $1 billion
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/bitcoin-start-up-coinbase-aims-for-1-billion-valuation.htmlCoinbase in conjunction with its exchange GDAX has regulatory approval all over the place, including UK, Canada, most of EU Europe, and most or all US states (probably most not all). It has insurance for both crypto, and for US folks FDIC insurance of USD deposits.
Lykke on the other hand according to its annual report has "a Vanuatu brokerage license".
https://www.lykke.com/Annual_Report_2016.pdf (see page 3 and from page 19)
It is "applying" for lots of licenses, with keys being the US and UK. Applying for a license and having one is a very different thing. Lykke really has no licenses at this point, although they'll likely get some as time goes on, and anyway they appear to be allowing transactions without a license certainly with cryptocurrency, which they can probably get away with since everyone else is doing that. Not having any US license is a massive thing, and I'm not sure with a Swiss firm in competition with US incumbent Coinbase how enthusiastically and quickly US authorities will be in granting them licenses.
Lykke's userbase according to its recently released annual report is 11,442 users as of 1 June 2017.
https://www.lykke.com/Annual_Report_2016.pdf (Page 5).
I couldn't get exact stats out there on Coinbase, but it seems like it's got anywhere from 6 to 10 million users.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-user-base-surges-coinbase-adds-1-mln-users-in-1-monthhttp://www.newsbtc.com/2017/03/01/bitcoin-exchange-coinbase-surpasses-6-million-total-users/Lykke is sitting currently at just under $480 million in total market cap (that is marketcap including coins held by founders and not in free float, which is something like 80 to 90 per cent of them).
My point is, how could Lykke possibly be worth half of Coinbase, that has 6 to 10 million users, worldwide regulatory approval, including the key US market through approval in US states when Lykke has less than 12,000 users and no real regulatory approval? (I'm not suggesting Vanuatu is not a "real" jurisdiction, I'm saying it's not an important one for the purposes of cryptocurrency markets).
My conclusion is it can't. That's why the price is off over 10% at 36.5 cents, but I think the price correction has only just begun. Segwit 2x will activate, and, when it does, Bitcoin will go up like crazy. No one will want to miss out on the action, they'll dump lots of things to free up liquidity to ride the "Bitcoin has finally scaled" wave up, they'll dump Ether, and they will certainly dump Lykke - especially early investors who are already sitting on lovely, acceptable 7x profits. I easily see a correction down to 25 to 30 cents in the next couple of months, which is probably closer to fair value anyway.
The big upside risks are (1) US regulatory approval and (2) substantial userbase growth. The big downside risks are (1) rejection or delay of US regulatory approval (2) Bitcoin scales and everyone dumps everything including Lykke to buy it.
Good analysis! I especially agree with your last conclusions about potentials and risks, because a lot will be about regulations. At the same time: Lykke is pretty much ahead when it's about that topic and may have some advantage over competing projects with similar goals.
In general, value and how people evaluate "something" (not only Investments) is one of the most interesting topics in my opinion - and what I believe: There is nothing objective to find. Out of individual perspective it's very personal, in last consequence it's about personal and subjective interpretations of informations that have a context nobody is able to fully overlook, plus the context of an individual situation. It's about beliefs. In short: Nobody is able to have all informations and nobody is able to interpret any information he has other than subjective. Individual decisions are significantly based on 1) personal beliefs and 2) the absence of informations.
And then there is the sum of individual views and decisions, the collective, the market(s). And that is a feedback-system: Individuals react on collective expressions (buying, selling, communicating) but the collective (part of) also reacts on individual decisions (whenever a "whale" shows his financial power the rumors start, and whenever a "VIP" communicates own opinions it has influence).
In the end it's very much about time. Moments form facts, everything else is subjective. That leads into the paradox that it would be possible to say that a price at a certain point in time is objective, because it is a fact. It's also possible to say that there is absolutely nothing objective because what has lead to it, in time, are 100% individual and subjective decisions while no participant is able to see the full picture. But many, maybe even a majority, tend to objectify collective agreements, especially if the time-frame is long enough.
When it's about Lykke and Blockchain-projects: Of course one can analyze a project, also compare it with others and it's possible to find facts about the status quo. Those facts are basically the results of the decisions of those who build a project. In my opinion, when it's about value and potential, it's very much about the teams behind. The same idea wouldn't be worth $10 if I would start it with some friends. But if the team behind Lykke should be able to develop the platform how it is meant to be, and of course that will always be an ongoing process, it might become a multi-billion-dollar project.
And nobody has ever bought anything else than future potential.
Btw, the question about Bitcoin and 1) what the result of the current controversy might be in time and 2) how it will effect other markets, is also very interesting and very complex. I consider 1 as nearly totally unclear. I only believe that there will be a lot of volatility because I don't believe that there will be something like a safe status quo anytime soon. But if something like a best-case-scenario should realize, new and more potential for the whole ecosystem and the price goes up etc.: Sure, it's possible that many would sell other Crypto-assets for Bitcoin. But what also should be taken into consideration: More people would be attracted and more money would flow into the whole ecosystem. A strong Bitcoin and a rising price of Bitcoin would be helpful for Lykke, also because even if Lykke is far from being fully developed, there is one fact: It's already pretty good to buy Bitcoin.
Best article I know, about the Bitcoin-situation is this:
Countdown to SegWit: These Are the Dates to Keep an Eye On
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/