Topic: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs - page 410. (Read 1260290 times)

Your simulation is absolutely useless because the future difficulty prediction has no basis in reality.

Well 18% increase per jump is too much even for me, and I don't buy the 14% per month will be true even while some people is telling that it is too much.

This is true Spondoolies, you need to start selling what you have in stock and NOT do pre-orders (or at least don't make people wait 2-3 months before getting units) because I would have had to wait 2 months before getting my SP30 miners and at the time of purchase the difficulty was 17.34G now it's 23.84G and I still have to wait for another month so it will probably be 28.84G when I start. Also not to mention the calculation was done for 6TH of which we are getting 4.5 instead now...

Here is a small simulation.
You pay 4000 $ for the hardware, that means about 8 BTC right now
If delivered in 2 months from now, it will give you back 2 BTC at best scenario with a 0.1$ kw/h price.


It's so sad when I see so many people getting scammed by these big companies  



Same goes for both SP30 and SP31.

SP31 is another unit designed to fool all buyers.
By the time it will be shipped ( in 2 months from now) It will be another piece of USELESS hardware that you paid 4.000$ for.
Why are you people so blind and buy all their crap ?


The SP31 would have been great if would have been shipped NOW, from stock.
But 2 months later ? big NO NO



They see their game works and that's why they sell their hardware with big delays, pre-orders and so on.

People, it's time to wake up and stop buying crap from crappy sellers, this is the only way we can force them to deliver on time and at the right price, to give us a change to ROI

is there any proof that ALL the people who air their grievances here are AM(or any other competitor) shills/employees??

it seems that there is so much pointing fingers and not nearly enough apologies/humble pie being eaten - 'yea, but look over there'

how about focusing on getting the already raw miners their gear instead of spending so much energy pointing fingers elsewhere?

so far as i can see, its only YOU guys that find any of this amusing!!

i for one, with just one SP30 (paid in FULL in APRIL) find NONE of it in any way amusing.  

in fact im starting to get annoyed, knowing that my rig will arrive on the 31st if im 'lucky'

im going away for a fortnight ON the 31st!!

is there ANY chance i'll have time to set this crippled beast up before heading away for our SEPTEMBER holiday??

Indeed the SP30 didn't meet our initial target. The issue, as explained multiple times, has nothing to do with the design or pre silicon simulations. It will be proved in one month with the SP31.

We're providing adequate compensation and the refund requests are practically zero.
Unhappy customers quickly find someone to swap.

As long as there is demand, and believe me there is, we'll continue to presale.
I don't have any issue with AM or it's hordes of devotees. Best of luck with your next ASICs. I wish AM best of luck with their next ASIC.

Cheers,
Guy

Edit: I've just exchanged emails with David and FC. HorseRider isn't an official representative. Probably just another agitated(?) SH. Funny.

Guy,

I tell you the truth, you made a promise but you did not deliver it. What is worse, you don't compensate all of the loss between your promise and the reality for your customer.(You don't compensate the efficiency discrepancy. IF there is any new update that you changed your policy please tell me I am wrong.)

AM may fail at the R&D target, which technology company always do, but AM has never used stimulation results without proven silicon sample to do sales. You presale, and you don't deliver. You are a bad Guy.

Bitcoin mining rig is kind of commodity. All the machines produce the same thing: SHA256 hash. Produce a good mining machine is enough for a successful company, and you don't need to act as a bitch. It does not help at all.

呵呵.

They're not loosing money, but they don't profit too much.
The BF3500 cost is above $ 0.6/GHs
The BF3500 has replacable hashing boards.
Their strategy is to replace it with custom 40 when it will be ready and later with custom 28.
Their custom 40 effort is delayed and the custom 28 was just started after cancelling a custom 20 effort because it was too difficult. Doing full custom on advance nodes is much more challenging.
For the sake of the ecosystem, I do hope that they'll fail.

We're not sitting idle, but I think it's safe to assume that sub 0.3 W/GHs systems will arrive from vanilla 16 or 14 efforts. Those efforts cost a lot (double patterning means double masks creation costs) and takes a lot of time. And then, production times is also doubled.
I'm sure TSMC and GF/Samsung are very happy to let the "crazy" Bitcoin ASIC companies debug the processes and improve yield...

I do believe that the monthly growth will be below 10% during most 2015.
I can be wrong of course, but I believe I have more data than most.

I disagree with the point of too much money being invested into BTC mining. Some people have the money to prop up even the most unstable ventures. There is also the YOLO factor, some deep pockets may drive difficulty up so far just to bring everybody crashing down in hopes that few will be able to recover monetarily.

There are also two special categories of unprofitable miners:

1-Those that have yet to realize sunk cost and continue mining out of desperation/blind hope/emotion/whatev.

2-Those that have a belief in the future value being greater than the current price and therefore continue mining in the face of unprofitable circumstances (a currently non-profiting miner taking profits in the future after holding/miners covering currently unprofitable mining with realized gains of past mining to weather the storm of unprofitability).

I do agree that the most efficient miners would stay profitable and difficulty can go through corrections.

Difficulty will always be pushed to the maximum limit until it is unprofitable for most. At that point it would retract, and since the network is not one unified brain it will overshoot the retrace and (aside from unprofitable miners) there will exist a void where miners will throw themselves at the network again until it is unprofitable.

People want BTC and there are only two was to acquire it...buying and mining. As long as is BTC is not fundamentally changed I believe there are too many people ready to buy "low" (a very relative term) to allow a crash large enough to bring difficulty with it.

As long as technology and ingenuity do not reverse I believe it is possible for the price to stagnate while difficulty continues to go up.

This is all just my speculation though, I could be wrong.

When's the price drop occurring?

here is one prediction that will hold true: IF BTC goes to $100 (<10% of peak similar to 2011) THEN hashrate will not only level off, but decline (not that I am seriously expecting such developments to occur).

Take a look at these quote from nearly a year ago:



Go look at the network hashrate back then compared to now. Anybody predicting the hashrate is leveling off is going to look like a fool in a year. Just like those guys look now.

I appreciate Guy giving us his perspective on mining difficulty and where he thinks it is going. Even though Guy is biased, he seems like a pretty straight shooter with more information about other manufacturers than most of us so it's nice to have another data point.

I also hope Guy is right about Bitfury almost losing money on their Georgia and Iceland data centers. Otherwise, we're all doomed and Bitfury will rule the BTC mining world.

Collectively, it is possible for too much money to be invested into Bitcoin mining, and the difficulty would overshoot so that all but the most efficient miners end up losing money. Sadly, unless the price of BTC rises soon, I fear that we're almost at that point and there will be a lot of pain for miners in the near future.

I'm trying to make the math work on an October SP31 hosted with jtoomim, but just can't make the numbers work out on a risk adjusted basis.

It might be prudent to sit on the sidelines (with some BTC in hand to hedge against a sharp price increase, of course) and see how things play out over the rest of the year.

Forecasting the ROI depends highly on the $/BTC price, and we can only know for sure the short term difficulty change. Anyway the risk is  there, and no ROI is likely if we follow some scenarios.

Not to be a dick...but someone else said the diff couldn't possibly go to a certain level 

PM with a better price and I'm in.

It won't be fun if you overpaid for shitty 4.5TH/s @ 3000W machines while you calculated your DC to use 6.0TH/s @ 2400W.  That's not going to be fun at all.  That is going to suck.  


Yeah, with Spondoolies, you are getting about 60% of what was promised - but its all on paper because delivery hasn't happened yet.  With Bitmain, you get what was printed on the tin - and the damn things are already in the DC working their asses off.  With Antminer S3 - I am about 1/3 way to +ROI already.  

With Yukon - +ROI is not possible.  With Yukon, it is merely a race to reduce losses.

apart from that, there are untested newcomers in the field with ridiculous claims.
At least with spond and bitmain-you know what you are getting. Not so much with half a dozen other outfits.

It will be fun to watch.