I see a lot of posts about people saying the current market cap of Auroracoin isn't real because there is less than 100,000 coins available and all of the premine isn't being taken into account. I come from an investing background with wallstreet. When you look at a stock, you can see two terms:
1. Float - This is the amount of sharing available for trading.
2. Shares Outstanding - This is the total amount of shares a stock has. This includes shares that are unavailable for trading for a variety of reasons.
The value of a stock is based upon the shares outstanding, NOT the float because investors and the market understand that at some point, those locked up shares will become part of the float. If there are very few shares available in the stock, it is said to be, "Illiquid". An illiquid stock can have wild price fluctuations when there is a lot of interest in it.
Auroracoin is illiquid. Its', "Float" is very small (less than $100,000). However, its marketcap which properly takes into account all of the coins (shares) outstanding, IS correct and the market is working to price in the fundamentals and risk associated with all those coins outstanding. As the market continues to evaluate the risk and reward associated with the airdrop, the price will continue to fluctuate.
I PERSONALLY believe a successful airdrop will result in the price being much higher than it is today but that is merely my opinion.
Thanks for you opinion and especially for your insights and explaining some things to the newbs like me.
Can you explain
why have a feeling the airdrop will result in a price increase?
In my mind it all depends on reception and use of the currency by the people of Iceland and of course also perception of and speculation on those factors in the future.
I can imagine some savvy Icelanders (bitcoiners) helping their friends and family and others claim their AUR and buy them off them below BTC/AUR market prices. This in turn would probably increase awareness (maybe it would be good if the coins could be claimed (only?) using the android wallet being developed, that way people claiming the coins would have a wallet and figure they might just keep some coins and use them to trade with friends or whatever).