that looks like 4 orphans out of 36 stakes, or 11% so far
I'm guessing I end up averaging about 4-6% orphans. And that hasn't really changed since JD started.
Well, if you were getting 5% orphans before JD and 11% after, maybe JD has doubled your orphan rate. Even before JD the staking will have been dominated by a few large wallets I guess. I'm thinking there wouldn't have been any with >50% of the stake weight, but there still will have been some big ones.
I was going to look at Nov, but the 11th was he hard fork, and I ended up on the wrong chain for a little while. 24 orphans in 3 hours... not good for the statistics.
Shortly after the hard fork everyone was on their own version of the chain. It was so easy to stake for the first hour after the fork that everyone was staking every few minutes.
So when extrapolating the results how does he perform compared to just-dice wallet?
The CLAM client seems to truncate its logfile sometimes, so I don't have much history. Here's what I do have:
Could he lower the chance of getting orphaned when he makes sure that he sends his block to just-dice first? Can the clam client be sat up that way? I would try to contact the biggest wallets first to lower the time i get >50%. Though in fact, at the moment, one would need to ONLY propagate to just-dice. Not healthy for sure.
CLAM blocks are mostly tiny and so quick to broadcast. I don't know if there's much to be gained by sending your blocks to JD first, but maybe it would help.
Do you guys recommend combined the blocks after each stake my balance is 633 right now. They are staking, should i combine them or leave them as is?
what do you suggest for having better luck when it comes to staking?
The only reason to split your outputs up into smaller pieces is to reduce the effect of the 8 hour delay after staking. Suppose you're happy with the 8 hour delay being 1% of the time your coins are staking, so you only lose 1% to the delay. That means you would want the expected staking time for your outputs to be 800 hours each. The total network staking weight is currently around 700k, and the total network stakes 60 blocks per hour:
So we can calculate the size an output needs to be to have an expected time to stake of 800 hours. Then it will spend just 1% of its time maturing:
>>> weight = 700e3
>>> loss = 0.01
>>> delay = 8
>>> weight * loss / delay / 60
14.58333
There it is. You need to split your balance into pieces of size 14.6 CLAMs if you're happy to accept a 1% loss due to maturation delays.
>>> loss = 0.05
>>> weight * loss / delay / 60
72.91666
If you're happy to lose 5% to maturation delays, you can get away with staking with bigger outputs (size 73 CLAMs each). And so on.
To check my math I looked at the JD staking wallet.
It has 562819 CLAMs split into 32351 outputs very roughly the same size. The average output size is 17.397 CLAMs.
Currently, of the 562819 CLAM balance, 554969 is mature and 7850 is waiting to mature. So that's 1.39% of the balance that is currently waiting.
>>> loss = 0.0139
>>> weight * loss / delay / 60
20.270833
According to my calculations I would expect a 1.39% loss like that with outputs of size 20, so I'm doing a little worse than predicted. That probably means my guess for the total network staking weight was a bit wrong. If I change my guess to 600k it fits much better:
>>> weight = 600e3
>>> weight * loss / delay / 60
17.375
But can that be right? JD is staking 590k on its own.
Checking the
rich list shows that other than JD there aren't many big addresses, and other than bitdice's 7k most of the other big addresses aren't staking (presumably being in poloniex's wallet, which we know doesn't stake).
It's look like maybe JD is much closer to 100% of the network staking weight than I previously thought, and the JD staking wallet's biggest competitor is the JD hot wallet...