Am buying some now - wont be long before we are back above $8
nope, up to $650 just before the w/e.
Fundamentally, here's what I see:
a) Bitcoin is now (finally) in a bull market. It was pummeled from $1150 all the way to $170 in an incredibly devastating two year bear market. Bitcoin has come a long way since November 2013, and it's not unreasonable to assume that it's been undervalued for months. When something is overvalued (Nov 2013) it typically crashes. When something is undervalued (late 2015) it usually soars. It's kind of like political elections in a two-party system, where one party rarely maintains control indefinitely.
b) The blocksize debate has probably been holding Bitcoin back, significantly, in terms of price appreciation. The debate is not yet resolved, but SegWit is ready to go (pending 95% signalling), and Lightning Network is in beta, and presumably ready to go once SegWit is accepted (SegWit is necessary to fix malleability). This is a long way from where we were last year, with a raucous debate and no solutions on the immediate horizon. Argue all you want about off-chain versus on-chain scaling, but I think the market is realizing that the problem of full blocks is about to go away.
c) The Halving. This is a big deal, and one that I think will generate a lot of hype in the media in the coming weeks. There is some fear of a "death spiral" due to miners being removed from the network and a new difficulty adjustment taking too long, but I think the risks of that are minimal--particularly if the price continues to appreciate (which will make marginal miners profitable). Some people say it's "priced in" because we knew the Halving was coming. Others, like me, say that it's always a bad idea to underestimate the power of hype. Bitcoin has been getting a lot of national media exposure...I don't think they're going to fail to report on this event.
In terms of technical analysis:
a) Bitcoin just exited a six month symmetric triangle, where the price compressed very tightly. It was likely to make a big move, one way or the other, and it moved upwards. That's a very big triangle, and I doubt that a 40% move is all that's going to happen.
b) The technicals also show a bull flag, with the flag part as an ascending triangle. This also makes it likely that the price will rise.
c) There are two major psychological barriers right now: $600 and 4000 CNY. Of the two, the 4000 CNY (about $610) is probably more significant, because of the supposed tetraphobia of the Chinese. Both those barriers are holding the price back right now. If...and it's an if...Bitcoin manages to surmount those two barriers, then a significant "drag" or "resistance" will be removed, and they will become support. The next level of resistance is around $660 - $680.
Anything could happen, and Bitcoin is famous for those massive $100 retraces that wreck everybody, but odds are in favor of continued appreciation. Which unfortunately means that Dash will probably trend down for a while longer yet. This shouldn't be an issue, because anybody that sells their Dash for less than $1000 is shortchanging themselves. Hodl =)
Good question--as soon as I say something....