And maybe they learn that Bitcoin is a pain in the ass, is unreliable and complicated, and go elsewhere.
I'm not saying that the system has failed or that it will definitely fail. I'm saying that it is starting to fail right now, because there is a mismatch between the infrastructure and user-education requirements of the system and its ability to function effectively. That is absolutely the case. At best it is poor planning and deployment.
Bitcoin needs to just accept it can't grow fast enough to do everything for everyone in the entire ecosystem. Satoshi said it was suppose to be a type of Digital Gold, maybe we need to go back to that way of thinking. That's a great accomplishment... but, when you have gold, you don't move it around all of the time. Why can't Bitcoin handle the larger value transactions in the space and all of the alts can handle the smaller day-to-day transactions.
The ecosystem is already setup to scale to infinity. Everyone wins.
It could, but it is currently out of step with that vision. SPV wallets were built up (in part by Satoshi, by the way) as a way to make the system easily accessible to people making routine transactions including buying coffee and using vending machines (plus many others of course). So you have have many end users doing exactly that, having adopted Bitcoin as a transactional medium, not something limited to high powered bankers and cryptocurrency experts. Perhaps that was a bad idea, but it's too late to erase that from history.
That worked just fine until very recently, and now you still have those users trying to transact but without the tools to do so effectively. Even if one fully buys in to your Evolution concept (as one example of several), and believes that Evolution is the way that the ecosystem will scale to infinity, Evolution isn't here. Even Bitcoin wallets with the ability to effectively set fees and increase fees if needed after the fact don't exist in any widely-deployed form.
So the whole thing is quite a mess right now. In the future I have no doubt it will get better, but where we are today is not pretty. Either an earlier and more effective push should have been made to get the tools out there faster to manage block space scarcity and shift transactions off the Bitcoin main chain, or there should have been some sort of block size increase to buy the time that is needed. Having done neither is an objectively poor outcome, and therefore one must fairly rate the process of having reached this outcome as ineffective.
EDIT: BTW, Satoshi never said that Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold (that description was invented later by others). His only mention of gold in the white paper related to the steady release of new coins, and in an email he compared Bitcoin to "base metal as scarce as gold" that could be sent over the internet. It is very clear he intended it to be for end-user payments. Opinions differ over whether that vision has turned out to be impractical or Bitcoin has been hijacked by people who want to develop it in a different direction.
I actually don't think there's anything wrong with SPV or the current state of the ecosystem (minus some centralization concerns, but that's for another time)! How many transactions could the current ecosystem handle if we utilized every blockchain at once. This is going to be much easier to explain if we start using daily throughput instead of MB per block, which is a terrible metric.
Here's the currently limit and percentage full:
Name Throughput per day Percentage Full
Bitcoin 144MB 95-100%
Etherium ? <%
Litecoin 576MB <1%
Dash 576MB <1%
Dogecoin 576MB <1%
Monero No Limit ~
I just looked at the last few blocks for each of these and we all basically have very low usage. How big can we scale, if the Bitcoin ecosystem were inclusive rather than trying to keep everything to itself? All they have to do is add the rest of the main alternative coins to all of the main sites like Bitstamp, Coinbase, Bitpay, etc. That would allow the free flow of money through the entire ecosystem then, we wouldn't be in this situation at all. The theoretical limitation of the current ecosystem is at least 100-1000x that of the Bitcoin blockchain at this point and it will expand much faster and deal with the exponential growth much better than they will because they're a million programmers out here just waiting for the opportunity.
As for "Digital Gold", he didn't coin the phrase, but he set the expectation that it works like gold: "The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation". I think it's time we stop messing with Bitcoin and let it become the protocol for the entire space. We have a good foundation to grow on and the rest of the space just needs to take over development into the million directions we need to go in-order to bring products to users. One product per blockchain, this is the new type of entity the space created... it's a DAC!
So each of these are DACS... right? Bitcoin, Etherium, Litcoin, Dash, Dogecoin, Monero, etc. They are decentralized, organized and each offer some sort of service to users that you can't get in the Bitcoin space. So if someone needs to some completely anonymous transactions they would use Dash, Monero, etc (and who cares which, there's trillions of dollars out there to bring in). If someone wanted to make a contract they use Etherium, if you want to record something on the blockchain... use Factom. We should have competitors, offering the same services too, those are like two competing companies.
I want to see products coming out for using all of this technology, like for example... you could make an amazon AWS by forking Dash and using the masternode system to host VPS sessions. Then you use a brand new token for paying for the service. If you have Dogecoins and want to buy six months VPS time on this network, you could use something like Shapeshift.io to pay from one to the other. I think we're see the birth of this new economic system and it doesn't support this idea of Bitcoin having to do everything. They already did what they were support to do, they created the crypto reserve currency.
Also, we need to start realizing the economic implications of Bitcoin hegemony. There's only four possible outcomes of playing this game with the ecosystem and they are eventually going to lose. They can't do everything, might as well accept it. There's also only one way everyone wins, it's to be inclusive.
Also, how does each of these scale. Lets assume "Bitcoin Scaling" means 40x throughput and allowing the alt market to grow means 100x scaling ability. (Rough estimates)
We want the one where, there is no limitation to the amount of money that can come into the space and be used for all sorts of things. We don't want imaginary limitations, which is what we currently have. How do we fix this?