To look at the on book order flow presently isn't entirely a great reflection of what will be in the future.
I agree with you. I understand how this works.
My point is this: If you are just barely breathing, and then try to hold your breath for 3 minutes... There comes a point of no return. Maybe if you had been breathing normally up to that point, you could have pulled it off. But you're already starved for oxygen, and now you try to hold your breath for 3 minutes...
The market is already barely alive. Cutting off supply isn't going to have the usual effect of driving up value, and we've witnessed this to be true. People are just staying out. Look at Doge. Why can it hold value in useless pump of extreme inflationary coin? The extreme inflationary nature means it has liquidity... People can buy it and then use it without fucking themselves out of position.
We should stop seeing what we want to see and look at what is actually happening. The evidence is right there... We're just not seeing it because we think we know how this shit works. Clearly, we don't know what we think we know or doge would be 0.00000001 - it's not. So, the rules we think we know clearly aren't applying.
We're decreasing liquidity at a time when there is already a death rattle as a result of not enough liquidity...
Maybe I'm overstating it. I'm not trying to claim that what I'm saying is the path we're on. It sure a shit looks like it... But it looks like PPC should have a market cap of 0. It doesn't... So, what things look like, according the the rules we think we know; it isn't working that way. Crypto changed the fundamental way we thought about money, but I think we have arrived at the wrong conclusions because what we thought we knew is not happening, at all, not even close.
Well 10 out of 10 for persistence Camo in trying to get your point across! I absolutely agree with you. It's a lovely notion that we might end up with 3000 MNs and far less coins in circulation as a result with DRK's price increasing substantially (and MN payments being higher; amongst other factors) but if liquidity isn't there, your examples of a potential user of DRK avoiding it because of the costs of getting hold of enough DRK to perform their transaction outweighing the benefits are a real issue. I know that BTC has gone through many phases in its progression from pure speculative play to being used to transact with, and it still has a long pathway to go before it's truly acting as a "currency", but it's essential we focus on DRK being usable for people to transact anonymously with and they can't do that for any reasonably large sums as it currently stands. If someone wanted to move US$100K anonymously using DRK, their buy (and subsequent sell which everyone would cry "dumper...!" at) would shift the price substantially. So it's currently just not usable for its intended function and we need to get it to be.
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts Evan Duffield on this important facet of DRK's economic make-up.
Again, in time liquidity will increase. The volume isn't there and the adoption isn't there for anyone going to try to move $100k right now (DRK isn't even at that stage yet). Until we start seeing >1000 BTC volume days, we are at the mercy of an anemic altcoin market. I think it's poor for anyone to make long-term views on liquidity assumptions with how thin order books are presently, as if they will always remain that way. Certainly, if that's the case, no altcoin is going to survive. In theory, the BTC ETF should bring fresh capital into the crypto markets and we'd see spillage into the altcoins, DRK being one that should see benefit to this. At 3000 MN's and just using today's supply of around 4.8M coins, that leaves 1.8 million coins for trading, but it's naive to think of that as low available liquidity. There is actually 180,000,000,000,000 units available from all the duffs out there. Are you telling me this amount isn't sufficient for daily volume??
I think it's poor for anyone to make long-term views on liquidity assumptions with how thin order books are presently, as if they will always remain that way.
Not suggesting the current level of liquidity will always remain; just wanting to stimulate conversation on this, as per Camo's commentary. I believe DRK will eventually have great liquidity and be very useful, but maybe there are ideas (like illodin's) that could accelerate DRK's ability to be used for more than just the current speculative focus.
At 3000 MN's and just using today's supply of around 4.8M coins, that leaves 1.8 million coins for trading, but it's naive to think of that as low available liquidity
No, I'm not thinking that. I know that the divisibility down to 8 decimal places creates a lot of room for movement in value. The essence of what I'm interested in is the pathway DRK needs to travel to see dramatically improved liquidity, to the point where large amounts of fiat can be converted without it causing massive spikes in the price.
I think we'll have more liquidity, I'll try to breakdown the argument:
1.) Let's say we have 3000 masternodes and a 400M marketcap. Masternodes enjoy 50% of the total coins mined. Lets say there's 6 million coins, so that's $66.60 per coin on the exchanges.
2.) The total masternode network will make 1440 coins a day (576*5*.50 = 1440)
3.) How much of those coins do they sell? 30%? If that's true, each day there will be 0.3*1440*66.6 worth of coins for sale. So we can do $28771 worth of business a day with no premium.
TLDR; A higher market cap means more people can buy things without any premium to use DRK. Also, if there's 50k of business happening a day the price will just go up, allowing more business to be done.
This isn't including the other 50% miners mine. So using the same example, there should be $57542 daily liquidity at 400M market cap.
Its a very good conversation you are all having, but its all very simple.
Darkcoin has a marketcap of 10 million dollars! In what universe would a currency worth 10million total, handle a daily transaction of hundreds of thousands of dollars without effecting the marketcap?
Surly due to supply and demand the marketcap would rise to a level that is considered "worth it".
Eg, Coinbase start to block transactions to say a (poker site) and people want to play poker, they can just use dark and pay what they consider to be worth playing poker online.
This tells me Darkcoin atm is just not in demand and explains the low market cap, which then results in someone not being able to transact the 100,000s of dollars you are talking about.
Marketcap will rise with use of Darkcoin, allowing bigger transactions to take place.